著者

XING Yuqing

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-06, 2015-05

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This paper argues that global value chains (GVCs) have functioned as a vehicle for “Made in China” products to enter international markets, especially the markets of high income countries. It identifies three spillover effects to Chinese firms participating in GVCs: brands, distribution networks and lead firms’ technology innovations. By participating in GVCs, Chinese firms are able to bundle low skilled labor services with advanced technologies and globally recognized brands, and then sell their low value added services to the consumers of international markets. The competitiveness of China’s processing exports is largely determined by more than 50% of foreign contents embedded in the exports. Using the panel data of bilateral processing exports covering more than 100 China’s trade partners, it shows there exists a significantly positive correlation between the share of processing exports and the income of trading partners, implying that processing trade is an effective means for “Made in China” products to enter high income countries. The cross-country heterogeneity of processing exports also indicates China captures relatively more value added in its exports to low income countries than to high income countries.

著者

KINOSHITA Tomohiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14-25, 2015-03

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Forward guidance or more specifically policy duration commitment invented and developed by the Bank of Japan has become an essential part of unconventional monetary policy instruments employed by modern central banks. This paper’s simple empirical analysis finds that the market believes or perceives Bank of Japan’s policy duration commitment to be credible, which has in turn helped the Bank to manage expectations of future interest rates and control the level and shape of the yield curve at an extraordinarily low range. The suppressed yield curve has contributed to reduction of financing costs for businesses and households and has supported macroeconomic growth through the conventional interest rate channel of policy transmission. However, forward guidance including policy duration commitment does have difficulties. The magnitude of its impact has been time-variant, which appears to depend on evolution in policy frameworks and communication skills. More importantly, this paper projects that the extraordinarily low and flattened yield curve coupled with maturity extension of the Bank assets could pose threats to the future income of the central bank in the event of policy normalization, which could have unintended fiscal implications.

著者

XING Yuqing 政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.22-12, 2023-03

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Chinese processing exports use imported intermediates more intensively than its ordinary exports. The share of processing exports in the Chinese exports to high income countries is much higher than that to low income ones. That heterogeneity suggests that the domestic value added of Chinese processing exports differs from that of the ordinary exports, and the domestic value added of Chinese bilateral exports should vary across its trading partners. In this study I estimate the domestic value added of Chinese processing exports, ordinary exports, total exports and bilateral exports to 150 countries from 2004 to 2018, giving consideration to the heterogeneity. The estimates indicate that the domestic value added of processing exports was 30.1% in 2004, about 55 percentage points lower than that of ordinary exports. From 2004 to 2018, the domestic value added of total Chinese exports rose from 54.5% to 63.7%. However, the significant disparity in the domestic value added between processing and ordinary exports was persistent during the period. The domestic value added of Chinese exports also varied significantly across 150 trading partners. In 2004, it ranged from 39.5% to 84.1%. Generally, Chinese exports to developing countries were embedded with higher domestic value added than that to developed countries. Compared with the Chinese domestic value added reported by the OECD TiVA, the estimates of this study are 20 percentage lower on average.

著者

新垣 拓 防衛研究所地域研究部

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-19, 2018-12

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米国の核兵器運用に同盟国を参画させるという核共有制度は、2つの形式をとりながらアイゼンハワー政権において開始された。第1には、NATOの枠組みとは別に、英国に配備したソー・ミサイルを米英2国間で運用する制度であり、第2には、NATOの枠組みにおいて、英国も含むNATO加盟国との2国間協定に基づいてイタリアとトルコに配備したジュピター・ミサイルや戦術核兵器を運用した核備蓄制度であった。ただし、同政権では、これらの2国間・核共有にとどまらず、第3の核共有制度が検討されていた。それは最終的に、NATO内にMRBM戦力部隊を段階的に創設するという、1960年12月のハーター提案というかたちで同盟国に示されることとなった。すなわち、即応性が高くソ連本土を射程に収めるポラリス・ミサイルを、原潜艦隊という海上プラットフォームに基づき多国間で運用する共有制度を、新たに打ち出したのであった。本稿では、未公刊の一次史料に依拠しながら、どのように多国間核共有論が形成・共有されるようになったのか、なぜMRBMが共有対象に選択されたのか、なぜ政権末期というタイミングでの提案に至ったのかという観点から分析を行うことで、米国政府内の主要な政策主体の認識や、核共有の在り方に関する政策論議を明らかにする。

著者

LITSCHIG Stephan ZAMBONI Yves

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-20, 2019-10

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This paper estimates the effect of state judiciary presence on rent extraction in Brazilian local governments. We measure rents as irregularities related to waste or corruption uncovered by central government auditors. The identification strategy is based on an institutional rule of state judiciary branches according to which prosecutors and judges tend to be assigned to the most populous among contiguous counties forming a judiciary district. Our research design exploits this rule by comparing counties that are largest in their district to counties with identical population size from other districts in the same state where they are not the most populous. Instrumental variable estimates suggest that state judiciary presence reduces the share of inspections with irregularities related to waste or corruption by about 10 percent. The effect is concentrated among first-term mayors, suggesting that judicial presence operates through an increased probability of detection and prosecution rather than an increased probability of conviction, which should discipline second-term mayors as well.

著者

KIJIMA Yoko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-25, 2019-11

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Since 2008, JICA has made great efforts toward doubling rice production in Sub-Saharan Africa in 10 years. This study explains JICA’s approach and projects and reviews the research findings on JICA’s rice training projects. The trainings on rice cultivation practices increased the rice production of the training participants, not only in the short term but also in the long term. The training benefits seem to spill over to the neighbors within the same irrigation scheme. When introducing upland rice to areas where rice was not grown, selecting areas suitable for rice cultivation is a key for sustainable adoption and production.

著者

KIJIMA Yoko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-26, 2019-06

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Although rice has been a prominent cash crop in areas with access to lowland in Uganda, the adoption of rice and area expansion have stagnated despite the Government of Uganda’s 2009 National Rice Development Policy and its commitment to doubling rice production over 10 years. Using panel data collected in 2010 and 2017 as well as risk preference data elicited via lab-in-the-field experiments conducted in rural Uganda, we find that farmers with higher loss aversion are less likely to grow rice and expand their rice cultivation areas. This study affirms that risk preferences play a critical role in agricultural production decisions.

著者

FUNK Patricia LITSCHIG Stephan

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-27, 2019-11

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This paper investigates whether the form of the legislative institution - citizen assembly versus elected parliament - a¤ects the level and composition of local public expenditure. Our empirical analysis focuses on medium-sized and mostly German-speaking communes in Switzerland that switched from assembly to parliament between 1945 and 2010. Event study estimates suggest that parliament adoption increases total spending by about 6 percent and that this increase is driven mostly by general administration and education spending. To understand potential mechanisms at play, we run a survey among assembly participants and document a sizeable under-representation of 20- to 40-year-olds, as well as of women in assemblies compared to both voters in elections and to the electorate at large. Since these two demographics have relatively strong preferences for public spending on education in our setting, switching from citizen assembly to parliament likely increased their representation in the political process.

著者

GUANTAI Fredah KIJIMA Yoko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-19, 2019-10

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This study is an examination of the effect of intrauterine exposure to electoral violence on child birthweight; an outcome that has long-term effects on an individual’s education, income, and health in later life. By considering the electoral violence that resulted from the introduction of multi-party democracy in Kenya as an exogenous source of shock and by adopting difference-in-differences method and mother-fixed effect model, we found that prenatal exposure to the violence increased the probabilities of low birth weight and a child being of very small size at birth by 19 and 6 percentage points, respectively. We found that violence exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy decreased birth weight by 271 grams and increased the probabilities of low birthweight and very small size at birth by 18 and 4 percentage points, respectively. The results reaffirm the significance of the nine months in utero as one of the most critical periods in life that shapes future health, economic, and educational trajectories.

著者

TAKYI Paul Owusu LEON-GONZALEZ Roberto

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-15, 2019-09

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This study develops and estimates a standard New-Keynesian DSGE model for the Ghanaian economy, for the analysis of the impacts of government spending, consumption tax, and labor income tax shocks on household consumption and working hours. It also applies the model to examination of the effects of fiscal policy shocks on key macroeconomic variables in the Ghanaian economy. The model features heterogeneous households of two types, financially excluded and financially included, and considers two labor markets: perfectly and monopolistically competitive labor markets. We use quarterly time series data from 1985Q1-2017Q4 to estimate the model’s parameters using a Bayesian approach. The results show that a positive government spending shock has an expansionary effect on the consumption of financially excluded households but has a decreased effect on that of fully financially included ones. We find that positive consumption and labor income tax shocks decrease the consumption of financially excluded households more than that of financially included ones. From a policy perspective, government spending is effective for increasing output, employment, and the consumption of financially excluded households, although it reduces that of financially included ones.

著者

細江 宣裕

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-17, 2019-09

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The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced recently that they will terminate preferential treatment in the licensing of specific chemical products for export to South Korea. This announcement evoked concern that the impact on Korean semiconductor and electronics industries, which rely heavily on imports from Japan, might cause a serious supply shortage in the global semiconductor market. To assess the economic impact of tighter export controls, this study simulates: (a) imposition of an export tax on chemical products; and (b) a productivity decline in the electronics sector in Korea, using a world trade computable general equilibrium model. The results of these simulations indicate that such a productivity decline would cause only slight harm to the Japanese and world economies, aside from the electronics sector in Korea, and that an export tax would significantly distort trade patterns and undermine the welfare of Japan and Korea in a similar magnitude. However, welfare loss normalized for GDP size would be far smaller in Japan than in Korea.

著者

MUNRO Alistair D’EXELLE Ben VERSCHOOR Arjan

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-11, 2019-07

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In the context of investment decisions, "contingency" refers to the influence agents may exert over the probability distribution of returns on investment. Often, contingency is difficult to detect and investment decisions are influenced by recent experience of (non-)contingency. To investigate the behavioural influence of prior (non-)contingency on investment decisions, we conduct an economic experiment in rural Uganda. Subjects are asked to invest any amount they wish of their endowment, with success dependent on whether they are correct in detecting the heavier of two objects. In one task, there is contingency: trying hard to detect the weight difference should influence the success probability. In another version, there is non-contingency: the weight difference is below the differential that humans are able to perceive. To investigate the effect of prior experience of (non-)contingency we experimentally vary the priming of (non-)contingency with a guessing game organised before the investment tasks. Our main finding is that priming contingency raises investment in the contingency condition. We find in addition that stated perceptions of confidence are also affected by priming contingency. In both cases, the effect is mediated by individuals' risk aversion. Individuals who are less risk averse respond more positively to priming contingency. We conclude that alertness to contingency matters for investment decisions, the more so the less risk averse people are.

著者

HOSOE Nobuhiro AKUNE Yuko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-06, 2019-07

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Manufacturing industries have attracted research attention regarding roles of firm heterogeneity and product differentiation in the “ new new trade theory.” Agricultural sectors also produce new goods by product differentiation through breeding, food processing, quality-upgrading, and branding. In reaction to the recent globalization, the Japanese government has sought strategies to promote its domestic agri-food sectors by means of product differentiation and export promotion. This computable general equilibrium study examines the relevance of these policies by simulating hypothetical trade liberalization in agriculture and/or food. We show that agricultural trade liberalization would not increase Japan’ s agricultural exports but would increase food exports; and that food trade liberalization would promote food exports. Both types of liberalization would increase domestic production in agri-food sectors through agri-food linkages and variety effects. This finding affords evidence of the relevance of product differentiation strategy through food processing and exportation, but not of agricultural export promotion strategy.

著者

TABETANDO Rayner KIJIMA Yoko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-08, 2019-06

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This study examines the evolution and impact of land sales and rental markets on agricultural efficiency in rural Kenya and Uganda using panel data spanning over 10 years. We first analyse the efficiency gains induced by land sales and rental markets by estimating the impact of participation in markets on unobserved farmer ability and land endowment. We do find evidence in both countries, that land markets induce efficiency by transferring land to households with higher farming ability. In both countries, the land market enhances equity by transferring land from land-abundant to land-constrained households. Although renting-in land increases crop income in Kenya, we find no evidence that renting in land enables households to escape from poverty. In contrast, increase in land owned helped decrease poverty incidence in Uganda. These findings points to potential weaknesses in the functioning of land markets in Kenya and Uganda which impedes their ability to contribute to poverty alleviation.

著者

NORITOMO Yuma TAKAHASHI Kazushi

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-07, 2019-06

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Index-based insurance can have welfare-enhancing effects through two pathways: by mitigating weather-related shocks through payouts and by inducing policyholders to take greater yet more profitable risks. Most studies fail to distinguish between these two. Thus, we know little about which effects dominate and their long-term welfare implications. Using a random distribution of discount coupons and drought events that trigger payouts as exogenous variations, this study aims to identify both the ex ante risk-management and ex post payout effects of index insurance in a pastoral-dominant society of northern Kenya, where the presence of asset-based poverty traps, represented by bifurcated herd-size dynamics, has been established in the literature. We find the following: (1) Both risk-management and payout effects contribute to reducing the probability of distress sales of livestock; (2) payout effects also lead to a reduced slaughter of livestock; (3) while payout effects remain robust in a subsample of poorer households below the poverty trap threshold, risk-management effects do not. Overall, our results suggest that insurance payouts assist people in escaping from poverty traps more effectively than do behavioural changes accompanied by insurance purchases.

著者

XING Yuqing

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-01, 2019-04

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Many American multinational corporations (MNCs) have turned into factory-less. They outsource the production of their products to foreign companies and derive the largest share of their revenue from the intellectual property of core technologies and brand names. When factory-less American MNCs sell their products assembled by foreign contract manufacturers in overseas markets, they actually “export” the value added attributed to their intellectual property embedded in those physical goods. However, conventional trade statistics are compiled based on the value of goods crossing national borders, as declared to customs. The value added of the intellectual property is generally not recorded as part of US exports. We use Apple, a typical factory-less American company that employs exclusively foreign contact manufacturers to assembly its products, as a case to illustrate why and how conventional trade statistics underestimate actual US exports in the age of global value chains. According to our analysis of this case, if the value added of Apple intellectual property sold to foreign consumers was counted as part of US exports, total US exports in 2015 would increase by 3.4%, and its trade deficit would decrease by 7.0%. In terms of bilateral trade, the value added under examination here would raise the US exports to China and Japan by 16.6% and 8.6% respectively, and lower its trade deficit with the two countries by 5.2% and 7.8% accordingly.

著者

細江 宣裕

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, 2016-08

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英国の欧州連合(European Union, EU)離脱の影響を2種類の応用一般均衡(computable general equilibrium, CGE)モデル—規模に関して収穫一定の従来型モデルと、企業の異質性と規模の経済を考慮したMelitz型のモデル—を用いて分析する。EU離脱後に再設定される貿易障壁によって、英国と英国以外のEU諸国間の貿易は大きく落ち込む。規模に関して収穫一定のモデルを用いると、英国はわずかな経済厚生上の利益、または、損失を被ることが予想されるが、規模の経済のあるモデルを用いた場合には、無視できない規模の損失が発生することがわかる。その損失は、英国がEU離脱から得られる便益の中での最大と期待されているEUへの財政拠出金の金額と同程度に達する。英国の産業は、とくに繊維・衣料、鉄鋼・金属製品、自動車・輸送機械部門において、大きく輸出を減らすことを通じて生産を減少させる。The impact of Brexit is investigated using two computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, featuring conventional constant-returns-to-scale (CRS) technology and increasing-returns-to-scale (IRS) technology with firm heterogeneity, à la Melitz. The imposition of trade barriers would trigger a significant contraction of the bilateral trade between the United Kingdom (UK) and the rest of the European Union (EU). While a CRS CGE model predicts that the trade barriers would benefit or only marginally harm the UK's welfare, the IRS model predicts a larger loss through firm exit and loss of varieties, comparable to the expected saving of the UK's contribution to the EU budget. Among the UK industries, the textiles and apparel, steel and metal, and automotive and transportation equipment sectors would suffer most severely from their sharp fall in exports.JEL Classification Codes: F13, F17, C63本研究は、日本学術振興会科学研究費補助金(16K03613)を得て進められた。http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro/http://id.nii.ac.jp/1295/00001511/

著者

MASEKESA Faith MUNRO Alistair

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-18, 2018-11

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This paper investigates experimentally how changes in wage rates and entitlements affect individual productivity in lab-in-the-field experiments run with married couples from rural regions in Uganda. We design a game in which the production task itself is straightforward, but where the rules governing payment vary across subjects and between rounds. In some cases, all the value of output goes to the husband; in other cases all goes to the wife; in other cases the value of output is shared equally and finally in some cases each spouse receives income according to only their own output. To consider the effects of wage inequality we vary the price paid for each completed item so that the ratio of male to female wages varies from 0.5 to 2. All this is done transparently so that both partners know the rules of the game. The results generally indicate that a rise in relative wages lowers relative effort, a result that is contrary to the most straightforward interpretation of standard models of the household, but compatible with some models of fairness. Men do not generally respond strongly to treatment. In contrast, women’s labour supply is strongly backward bending when all income goes to the husband, but effort rises with wages when each spouse gets to keep their own earnings. The results therefore suggest that the effects of reforming or removing one inequality may depend critically on the existence of other inequalities.

著者

OISHI Yoko WIE Dainn

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-16, 2018-11

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In this paper, we investigate the impact of trade liberalization on the demand for female workers using Indonesia’s tariff reduction in the 1990s and 2000s as a natural experiment. This paper utilizes variation in output and input tariffs to examine two different channels through which trade liberalization affects female employment: import competition and imported technology. We find that a 10%-point reduction in output and input tariffs hurt women’s employment by 0.5% point and 4.5% point, respectively, in light industries in the 1990s. We show that output tariffs affect women’s employment in a competitive industry, while input tariffs increase firms’ utilization of foreign inputs instead of domestic inputs. We also find that output tariffs encourage women’s employment in heavy industry, while input tariffs have hurt women’s employment in heavy industry since 2000. Our results suggest that there exists a race between gender inequality in education and imported technology in developing countries.

著者

XING Yuqing ZHANG Bo

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-10, 2018-09

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This paper analyzes how the technology progress of the South country affects the welfare of the North country in a free trade world. Using the standard Ricardian model of the North-South trade, we show that, import biased technological progress of the South will undermine the welfare of the North, once the cumulative technological progress of the South exceeds a threshold. The relative population size of the South to North affects the threshold. Generally, a relatively larger South country has a lower threshold and the technological difference between the two countries remains even beyond the threshold. To a certain extent, the findings of the paper offer an theoretical explanation about the concerns of rising China in an integrated world economy.