著者

平嶋 裕輔 中山 雅雄 内藤 清志 浅井 武

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育学会

雑誌

体育学研究 (ISSN:04846710)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.59, no.2, pp.805-816, 2014 (Released:2014-12-20)

参考文献数

24

被引用文献数

3

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The purpose of this study was to clarify the principal factors related to shot situations that affect the outcome of goalkeeping saves in soccer and to build a regression formula that would predict the difficulty of saving a shot. The samples were 551 shots at goal in the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. The shots data were collected using game performance analysis. For statistical processing, the principal factors affecting the outcome of a save in soccer were revealed using logistic regression analysis. The principal factors that influenced the results of a save attempt were: the duration between initiation of the shot and when the ball reached the goal, the presence or absence of a defender in front of the shooter, the presence or absence of a defender located lateral or posterior to the shooter, the part of the body used to perform the shot, i.e. the head or the leg, the type of shot, i.e., a liner, a lob, or a grounder, the shot course in a mediolateral direction, the shot course in a vertical direction, the presence or absence of a change in the direction of the shot by other players, the shooter's position angle in relation to the goal line and the line from the goal post to the shooter, and the distance from the center of the goal to the ball when the ball reached the goal line. In addition, a regression formula was constructed to predict the difficulty of the save by combining the odds ratios of the main factors. It was verified that the difficulty in making a save could be accurately predicted using the regression formula (84.8%). As a future task, using our regression formula, it would be practically important to develop predictors for evaluating the ability of a goalkeeper.

著者

吉田 拓矢 川原 布紗子 福田 有紗 白井 蒼 佐久間 彩 図子 あまね 淺井 武 谷川 聡 平嶋 裕輔

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育・スポーツ・健康学会

雑誌

体育学研究 (ISSN:04846710)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.20110, (Released:2021-05-12)

被引用文献数

1

著者

平嶋 裕輔 浅井 武 深山 知生 中山 雅雄

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育学会

雑誌

体育学研究 (ISSN:04846710)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.17088, (Released:2018-04-16)

参考文献数

13

被引用文献数

2

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The present study was verify of reliability and validity the regression equation constructed using the game footage from the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Formulated using multivariate logistic regression analysis, this equation’s purpose was to predict the probability of a goalkeeper’s failure to stop shots at goal. The 2014 dataset consisted of 587 shots at goal from within the frames during 64 games played by 32 teams that participated in the FIFA World Cup in Brazil. The results showed that for the probability of failing to block a shot predicted by the regression equation, the two inter-rater interclass correlation coefficient was high (0.91), thus demonstrating reliability. Furthermore, when a contingency table was created with a cut-off value of 0.5, accuracy was high (85.9%); when an ROC curve was drawn and the area below the curve was measured (0.874), it was notably distinct, indicating generalizability. Therefore, the regression equation predicting the probability of failure to block a shot has high generalizability for predicting world-class goalkeepers’ probability of failure to block shots. This is considered a useful formula for evaluating goalkeepers’ blocking ability.

著者

平嶋 裕輔 中山 雅雄 内藤 清志 浅井 武

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育学会

雑誌

体育学研究 (ISSN:04846710)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.13106, (Released:2014-09-20)

参考文献数

24

被引用文献数

3

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The purpose of this study was to clarify the principal factors related to shot situations that affect the outcome of goalkeeping saves in soccer and to build a regression formula that would predict the difficulty of saving a shot. The samples were 551 shots at goal in the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. The shots data were collected using game performance analysis. For statistical processing, the principal factors affecting the outcome of a save in soccer were revealed using logistic regression analysis. The principal factors that influenced the results of a save attempt were: the duration between initiation of the shot and when the ball reached the goal, the presence or absence of a defender in front of the shooter, the presence or absence of a defender located lateral or posterior to the shooter, the part of the body used to perform the shot, i.e. the head or the leg, the type of shot, i.e., a liner, a lob, or a grounder, the shot course in a mediolateral direction, the shot course in a vertical direction, the presence or absence of a change in the direction of the shot by other players, the shooter's position angle in relation to the goal line and the line from the goal post to the shooter, and the distance from the center of the goal to the ball when the ball reached the goal line. In addition, a regression formula was constructed to predict the difficulty of the save by combining the odds ratios of the main factors. It was verified that the difficulty in making a save could be accurately predicted using the regression formula (84.8%). As a future task, using our regression formula, it would be practically important to develop predictors for evaluating the ability of a goalkeeper.

著者

鈴木 健介 浅井 武 平嶋 裕輔 中山 雅雄

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育・スポーツ・健康学会

雑誌

体育学研究 (ISSN:04846710)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.66, pp.261-275, 2021 (Released:2021-04-29)

参考文献数

29

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In soccer, as the number of goals determines victory or defeat, the top priority of soccer attacks is to score goals. In many competitions, more than 70% of goals are scored by shooting from within the penalty area (PA). Thus, entering the PA is an important factor in scoring goals to win games and advance in a tournament. However, as no previous research has analyzed in detail attacking play involving entry into the PA, players are unable to receive effective coaching. Focusing on the group stage of the 2014 FIFA World Cup, the present study compared attacking play into the PA between top-ranked teams that advanced (top teams) and lower-ranked teams that were defeated and did not advance (lower teams) in order to identify the characteristics and differences of the two groups. Samples were obtained from all 48 games played in the tournament at this stage. For statistical analysis, the unpaired t test and c2 test were used. No significant inter-group differences were found in the number of attacks or entering the PA and the number of shots, but the top teams had higher success rates in shooting and attacking, suggesting that they had excellent finishers or created better shooting situations. With regard to movements for receiving passes by players who entered the PA, the top teams showed a higher frequency of moving from the outside to the inside of the PA and receiving passes there, suggesting that their players received the ball as they moved toward the PA. Moreover, compared to the players of lower teams, they received passes inside the PA when no opposition defenders were in the attacking direction. These findings suggest that players of top teams evaded marking by opponents by receiving the ball while moving toward the PA. Furthermore, since top teams had higher scoring rates when their players dribbled into the PA, they likely had players more highly skilled in dribbling, thus resulting in goals.

著者

平嶋 裕輔 浅井 武 鈴木 健介 中山 雅雄

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育学会

雑誌

日本体育学会大会予稿集

巻号頁・発行日

vol.70, pp.223_3, 2019

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<p> ゴールキーパーにとって最も重要なプレーはシュートストップである。このシュートストップは、現在、セーブ率を用いて評価されることが一般的である。しかし近年、セーブ率は、被シュート1本毎のシュートストップ難易度が考慮されておらず、現場に有効な評価指標ではないとその妥当性を疑問視する声もある。そこで本研究は、2014FIFAワールドカップ全64試合を対象に、128名のGKをセーブ率によって評価し、その結果と被シュート1本当たりの平均シュートストップ失敗確率、被シュート数、予測失点との関係を明らかにし、セーブ率の問題点を検証することを目的とした。被シュート1本当たりの平均シュートストップ失敗確率及び予測失点の算出には、平嶋ほか(2014)が開発したシュートストップ失敗確率予測回帰式を用いた。その結果、セーブ率と被シュート1本当たりの平均シュートストップ失敗確率、予測失点との間に有意な負の相関関係が認められた。つまりセーブ率は、シュートストップの難易度が考慮されておらず、平均シュートストップ失敗確率の低い選手、予測失点が少ない選手の評価が高くなるという大きな問題点を有するということが明らかとなった。</p>

著者

松倉 啓太 平嶋 裕輔

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育・スポーツ・健康学会

雑誌

体育学研究 (ISSN:04846710)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.65, pp.1049-1067, 2020 (Released:2020-12-24)

参考文献数

21

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The aim of this study was to shed light on preparatory sequences performed by elite goalkeepers for defense against shots in response to variations in the position from where a shot at goal is taken, and in the number of touches ahead of the shot. The samples were extracted from videos of shots in all 64 matches of the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. First, to analyze the characteristics of shots in elite games, data on shots from different areas and after various numbers of touches were studied. Then, to analyze the preparatory sequences taken by goalkeepers to defend against those shots, the shots were classified into 6 groups based on ‘the presence or absence of a specific prejump’, ‘a change in the distance between the feet during the preparation period’, and ‘whether the goalkeeper was still in a moving position or had completed the move’. The results of this analysis of the characteristics of the elite game made it possible to divide the positions from where shots were taken in 2 types, based on the probability of the shot being on target and the probability that a goal would be scored. In addition, it was shown that when one-touch shots were on target, it was difficult for goalkeepers to defend against them. Next, as an overall trend, the most frequent preparatory sequence performed by goalkeepers was to prepare for a shot with a slight jump in order to widen the distance between the feet after they had finished moving into position. In addition, a breakdown of the preparatory sequences for various numbers of touches ahead of the shot revealed that – for onetouch shots – a proportion of goalkeepers moved into position until immediately before the shot was taken. Overall, from these analyses, it was concluded that elite goalkeepers must engage in different preparatory sequences depending on the circumstances of the shot.

著者

鈴木 健介 浅井 武 平嶋 裕輔 中山 雅雄

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育学会

雑誌

体育学研究 (ISSN:04846710)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.20061, (Released:2021-03-04)

著者

鈴木 健介 浅井 武 平嶋 裕輔 松竹 貴大 中山 雅雄

出版者

一般社団法人 日本体育学会

雑誌

体育学研究 (ISSN:04846710)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.19002, (Released:2019-08-20)

参考文献数

32

被引用文献数

1

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In football it is necessary to score more goals than one’s opponents in order to win the game. One strategy for gaining goals and scoring opportunities is attacking through the gap between an opposing defender (DF) and a midfielder (MF) (the DF-MF gap). However, research on this form of attack has revealed that it is merely more likely to lead to scoring and scoring opportunities than other forms of attack. In the present study, therefore, through a comparison between the Japanese J League (JL) and the German Bundesliga (BL), we examined the features of DF-MF attack play in the JL and BL and differences between them, in order to clarify the challenges in the JL for creating scoring opportunities. We determined the number of passes into the DF-MF gap, the number of passes from players receiving the ball in the DF-MF gap, and the relationship between receiving the ball in the DF-MF gap and the opposing DF. The sample used for analysis was a total of 40 games: 20 in the JL (2015 season) and 20 in the BL (2015/2016 season). For statistical analysis, independent t test and chi-squared test were conducted. In comparison to the BL, the rate of penetration into the DF-MF gap was lower in the JL. In addition, it became clear that in the JL there was a lower proportion of scoring opportunities such as penetration into the PA and shots when penetrating into the DF-MF gap than was the case in the BL. This was considered to be due to the fact that in the JL, the number of balls received in the DF-MF gap in the direction of goal was lower than that in the BL. Furthermore, in the JL, when the ball was received in the DF-MF gap, the proportion of moves defended from the opponent goal side was higher than in the BL, suggesting a problem in how the ball is received. These findings suggest that in the JL it is necessary to increase the opportunity for scoring by making it easier for the ball to advance in a goalward direction by receiving the ball when separated from the opponent DF.