著者

Youmin TANG Bin YU

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.86, no.6, pp.867-881, 2008 (Released:2009-01-29)

参考文献数

44

被引用文献数

4 10

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Using the Hilbert Singular Value Decomposition (HSVD) and the Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA), we analyzed the statistical relationship of MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). It was found that while a linear analysis produced no significant relationship between MJO and ENSO, a low-order nonlinear analysis based on the quadratic function of HSVD led to statistically significant lagged correlations. When their nonlinear relationship was further extracted by the NLCCA, stronger correlation was obtained, with the maximum correlation coefficient appearing while the MJO signals preceding the ENSO signals by around 2 months and 5.6 months respectively. The time lags producing the maximum correlation are respectively consistent with the characteristic time of MJO influencing ENSO dominated by two physical processes: the equatorial Kelvin waves and air-sea feedback. Corresponding to the two different physical processes, ENSO shows different features of development. In the former scenario, the westerly winds in the western Pacific excite the equatorial Kelvin waves which propagate eastward and deepen the thermocline in the eastern Pacific, resulting in the sea surface warming at the far eastern Pacific near the coast. In the latter scenario, the westerly anomalies in the western Pacific precede the development of El Niño through bringing surface warm water into the central and eastern Pacific, thus the sea surface warming occurs across the whole eastern Pacific ocean.

著者

藤部 文昭

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.65, no.6, pp.923-929, 1987 (Released:2007-10-19)

参考文献数

15

被引用文献数

1 28

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1961~1985年の地上気象観測資料を使って,東京の都心における気温その他の気象要素の平日と週末の差を調べ,以下の結果を得た。(1) 日曜口(祝日等を含む)の気温は平日よりも低い。気温差は昼間に大きく,昼間の気温差は25年間の平均で約0.2°Cである。(2)気温差は時代とともに増大しており,近年は土曜日の夜にも低温が現れる。(3)気温差は年間を通じて認められるが,値は季節•天気•風速によって多少異なる。(4)日曜日の昼間は気圧が平日よりも0.05mb程度高い。このことから昼間の気温低下は数百 m 上空まで及んでいることが分かる。夜間は気圧差は検出されず,気温低下は地上付近だけに限られると思われる。(5)他の二,三の気象要素にも平日と日曜日の差が認められる。なお,曜日や日付けによる平日同士の気温差は認められない。

著者

穂積 邦彦 孫野 長治

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.62, no.3, pp.522-533, 1984 (Released:2007-10-19)

参考文献数

8

被引用文献数

4 27

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冬の季節風時に日本海中部に発生する収束帯にともなう帯状雲を,日本航空の定期便から写真撮影することにより観測し,その構造を三角測量方法で解析した。山陰地方のレーダー写真や日降雪量の分布も考慮して,収束雲帯の南西側の端に高い雲堤の列があり,これが山陰地方に局地的な大雪をもたらすことがわかったまた収束雲帯の発生機構を議論し,その立体構造のモデルが提案された。

著者

Takuji Sugidachi Masatomo Fujiwara

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, pp.179-182, 2013 (Released:2013-11-27)

参考文献数

15

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A new temperature-dependence correction (T-D correction) for Meisei RS2-91, RS-01G, and RS-06G radiosonde relative humidity (RH) measurements has been developed recently to remove the artificial stepwise change of ∼3% RH at 0°C associated with the present (original) correction. These radiosondes have been used at most of the Japanese upper-air stations since the 1990s. The historical radiosonde humidity records at Sapporo and Tateno stations on the 925, 700, and 500 hPa pressure levels show apparent large downward trends between 1999 and 2009. This is because the original T-D correction has only been applied since February 2003 after a moist bias was discovered. The new T-D correction is found to result in a much smaller downward RH trend at Sapporo and almost no trend at Tateno.

著者

Masato MORI Masahide KIMOTO Masayoshi ISHII Satoru YOKOI Takashi MOCHIZUKI Yoshimitsu CHIKAMOTO Masahiro WATANABE Toru NOZAWA Hiroaki TATEBE Takashi T. SAKAMOTO Yoshiki KOMURO Yukiko IMADA Hiroshi KOYAMA

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.91, no.4, pp.431-452, 2013 (Released:2013-09-06)

参考文献数

54

被引用文献数

5 14

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In line with the experimental design for near-term climate prediction toward the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we perform ensembles of initialized decadal hindcast and near-future projection using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In the present study, we explore interannual and multiyear predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) using the initialized hindcasts and examine global warming impacts on TC activity in the near-future on the basis of near-future projections up to 2035. The hindcasts of year-to-year variation in TC number capture the observed values reasonably well. Moreover, interannual variability of TC genesis and occurrence frequency associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are found to be predictable, mainly through better prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) and large-scale vorticity anomalies in the lower troposphere. These results indicate that the models can reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link TC genesis with large-scale circulation. Skillful prediction of TC number is likely difficult on multiyear timescales, at least based on our hindcasts, but through initializations, the three-year-mean hindcasts from 1998 onward reasonably capture observed major characteristics of TC activity associated with Pacific climate shift during the late 1990s. Near-future projections (2016-2035) suggest significant reductions (approximately 14%) in TC number, particularly over the western part of the WNP, even under scenarios in which projected global warming is less prominent than that at the end of this century. This reduction is likely due to the suppression of large-scale lower tropospheric vorticity and relative humidity and the enhancement of vertical wind shear. The projected SST exhibits a more pronounced warming over the eastern tropical Pacific than over the western region and accompanies the weakening of Walker circulation via redistribution of tropical convection activity, which appears to be responsible for the change in the large-scale fields in the WNP.

著者

Masatoshi Kuribayashi Nam Jin Noh Taku M. Saitoh Ichiro Tamagawa Yasutaka Wakazuki Hiroyuki Muraoka

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, pp.148-152, 2013 (Released:2013-10-11)

参考文献数

26

被引用文献数

3 8

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We estimated the snow water equivalent (SWE) of snowpack in central Japan from September 2006 to August 2008 by using a 3.3 km-mesh regional climate model with two land-surface models: Noah land-surface model (Noah LSM), and Noah land-surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah MP). The model validation for temporal variations of SWE at the Tohkamachi station and the comparison of modeled maximum SWE with estimated that from observed maximum snow depth at ten sites showed that Noah MP could simulate spatiotemporal variations of SWE better than Noah LSM which underestimated SWE. Simulated SWE in central Japan peaked in March, but the difference of SWE between the two land-surface models was greatest in April. SWE determined using Noah LSM (Noah MP) in analysis domain reached 18.1% (28.5%) of the total storage capacity of high dams in Japan in March 2007, whereas it reached 32.4% (44.1%) in March 2008. The difference of SWE between the two land-surface models was particularly high under warm conditions, that is, during the snowmelt season, and during a warmer than normal winter. Our results indicate that the choice of land-surface model for estimates of SWE is important under warm climatic conditions.

著者

Takuji SUGIDACHI Masatomo FUJIWARA

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.91, no.3, pp.323-336, 2013 (Released:2013-07-17)

参考文献数

22

被引用文献数

1 3

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Comparisons of relative humidity (RH) measurements between the Meisei RS-06G radiosonde and a chilled-mirror hygrometer revealed that the RS-06G radiosonde shows a stepwise change of ~3% RH at 0°C (drying when air temperature is decreasing). This is due to a discontinuous correction factor in the processing software that compensates for the temperature dependence of the RH sensor. Results from chamber experiments regarding the temperature and RH dependence of RS-06G RH sensors under steady-state conditions showed a wet bias exceeding 7% RH below ~+10°C. As this result contradicted previous in-flight intercomparisons that used the original manufacturer's correction, we investigated a possible additional dry bias caused by a thermal lag in the RH sensor. We speculated that the thermal lag of the RH sensor typically causes a dry bias during a tropospheric ascent, which largely compensates for the wet bias related to the temperature and RH dependence of the RH sensor. We observed that the experimental results of the temperature and RH dependence considering the thermal lag were in agreement with the extrapolation of the original manufacturer's correction. Consequently, we proposed to extrapolate the original manufacturer's correction, which is currently applied at temperatures between −40°C and 0°C, up to +14.5°C to resolve the artificial stepwise change at 0°C. Because the RS-06G radiosonde is a successor to the Meisei RS-01G and RS2-91 radiosondes, which have adopted the same RH sensor material installed since July 1999 and have used the same processing software, the current results should be applied to the data obtained by those radiosondes. The bias of RS-06G RH measurements using this new correction is estimated to be within 7% RH, which is within the manufacturer's specifications, being drier at +40°C and wetter between −40°C and +10°C.

著者

Kazuo Kurihara Koji Ishihara Hidetaka Sasaki Yukio Fukuyama Hitomi Saitou Izuru Takayabu Kazuyo Murazaki Yasuo Sato Seiji Yukimoto Akira Noda

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.1, pp.97-100, 2005 (Released:2005-09-14)

参考文献数

14

被引用文献数

36 48

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The Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) projected climate change over Japan due to global warming using a high-resolution Regional Climate Model of 20 km mesh size (RCM20) developed in MRI. Projection was made for 2081 to 2100 following a SRES-A2 scenario. Precipitation projected by RCM20 indicated that increased daily precipitation will be seen during the warm season from June to September. Except for this period, the precipitation amount will not change much or will slightly decrease around Japan. The increase during the warm season will be seen only in the western part of Japan. A possible cause of the increase is an El Niño-like SST pattern in the future. Due to the future increased summer SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific, anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of Japan will intensify and will induce a strong water vapor flux along the rim of the anti-cyclonic anomaly. The intensified flux will converge over the western part of Japan and may increase precipitation. Surface air temperature is projected to increase more than 2°C around Japan in January. In summer, the temperature increase will be lower by about 1°C than in winter.

著者

Hiroyuki Kusaka Haruka Kitahata

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.5, pp.61-64, 2009 (Released:2009-04-29)

参考文献数

16

被引用文献数

1 3

---

The synoptic-scale climatology of cold frontal precipitation systems during the passage over central Japan was investigated for 19 years (1988-2006). Cold frontal precipitation events are classified into the following three types: Widespread, Hokuriku, and Jump type. Widespread-type events, which bring precipitation throughout Japan, mainly occur in spring and autumn, and the cyclones tend to move northeastward from the central part of the Sea of Japan. The central pressure of the Widespread-type cyclones is the deepest and this type has the most moisture out of the three types. Hokuriku-type events, which bring precipitation exclusively over the Hokuriku area often appear in winter, and the cyclones move eastward from the northern part of the Sea of Japan. As a result, the isobars form in an east-west orientation over mainland Japan as the cold front arrives in the Hokuriku area. The Hokuriku-type cyclones tend to be relatively weak and there is less moisture during the events. For the Jump-type events, in which the precipitation distribution appears as precipitation bands jumping over the Kanto area, cyclones develop rapidly due to the deep trough at the 500 hPa level, changing the isobars from east-to-west to northeast-to-southwest during the events.