著者

YAMAGUCHI Junpei KANNO Yuki CHEN Guixing IWASAKI Toshiki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-015, (Released:2018-11-24)

被引用文献数

32

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An extreme cold surge event caused record-breaking low temperatures in the East Asia during 20–25 January 2016. The planetary- and synoptic-scale feature of the event is investigated quantitatively using the isentropic cold air mass analysis with the threshold potential temperature of 280 K. Because cold air mass is adiabatically conservative quantity, it is suitable for tracing and examining the extreme cold surges. We further introduce a metric named mean wind of cold air mass, which divides the factor of cold air mass evolution into convergence and advection parts. The new metric allowed us to trace the evolution of the cold air mass with dynamic consistency for a period of more than a week. A thick cold air mass built up over southern Sakha by a convergent cold air mass flow during 16–18 January. It migrated westward and reached Lake Baikal. On 20 January, an intense Siberian High developed with an eastward-moving mid-upper-level ridge, producing a strong surface pressure gradient over coastal regions of the Asian continent. This ridge and a cutoff low to the adjacent east formed a northerly flow in the mid-upper troposphere. The resultant southward flow through the troposphere blew the cold air mass over 480 hPa in thickness to the subtropical region of East Asia, causing strong cold surges there on 24 and 25 January. The abnormality of the event is further quantified using extreme value theory. The cold air mass gradually became rare along the path of the cold air mass from Lake Baikal to eastern China, which experienced as thick a cold air mass as once in 200 years. The cold air mass itself shows little change in thickness. Therefore, the migration of a cold air mass over 540 hPa in thickness from northern Siberia is the major cause of this cold surge extreme.

著者

ZHANG Siqi REN Guoyu REN Yuyu SUN Xiubao

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-004, (Released:2018-10-29)

被引用文献数

5

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This study aimed to improve understanding of the differences in surface air temperature data between observations and reanalysis since the beginning of the 20th century and to address the reanalysis data error. The anomaly correlation, standard deviation, and linear trend of temperature during 1909–2010 in eastern China was analyzed based on homogenized observation data from 16 stations and two sets of 20th century monthly mean surface air temperature reanalysis data (20CR and ERA20C). The results show that the inter-annual and decadal variability were consistent between reanalysis and observations in eastern China after 1979. The reanalysis data exhibited a large fluctuation during the 1960s. The average 20CR temperature was lower than the observations during 1920–1950. The inter-annual and decadal variability for winter and spring were consistent with the observations. The correlation and standard deviation ratio between the reanalysis and observations demonstrated a high consistency of their inter-annual variability and dispersion. The ERA20C data were generally closer to the observations than the 20CR data for the period 1979–2010. The linear trends of surface air temperature showed clear warming in both reanalysis datasets and the observations, but the reanalysis trends were significantly smaller than the observational trends for annual mean temperature and most of the seasonal mean temperatures after the 1950s. Overall, ERA20C was generally closer to the observational temperatures than 20CR during 1909–2010, but this consistency does not necessarily indicate ERA20C’s suitability for climate change research because of the systematic bias referenced to the observational data.

著者

KAJINO Mizuo DEUSHI Makoto SEKIYAMA Tsuyoshi Thomas OSHIMA Naga YUMIMOTO Keiya TANAKA Taichu Yasumichi CHING Joseph HASHIMOTO Akihiro YAMAMOTO Tetsuya IKEGAMI Masaaki KAMADA Akane MIYASHITA Makoto INOMATA Yayoi SHIMA Shin-ichiro TAKAMI Akinori SHIMIZU Atsushi HATAKEYAMA Shiro SADANAGA Yasuhiro IRIE Hitoshi ADACHI Kouji ZAIZEN Yuji IGARASHI Yasuhito UEDA Hiromasa MAKI Takashi MIKAMI Masao

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-020, (Released:2018-12-09)

被引用文献数

36

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Model performance of a regional-scale meteorology – chemistry model (NHM-Chem) has been evaluated for the consistent predictions of the chemical, physical, and optical properties of aerosols. These properties are essentially important for the accurate assessment of air quality and health hazards, contamination of land and ocean ecosystems, and regional climate changes due to aerosol-cloud-radiation interaction processes. Currently, three optional methods are available: the 5-category non-equilibrium, 3-category non-equilibrium, and bulk equilibrium methods. These three methods are suitable for the predictions of regional climate, air quality, and operational forecasts, respectively. In this paper, the simulated aerosol chemical, physical, and optical properties and their consistency were evaluated by using various observation data in East Asia. The simulated mass, size, and deposition of SO42- and NH4+ agreed well with the observations, whereas those of NO3-, sea-salt, and dust needed improvement. The simulated surface mass concentration (PM10 and PM2.5) and spherical extinction coefficient agreed well with the observations. The simulated aerosol optical thickness and dust extinction coefficient were significantly underestimated.

著者

Kazuaki NISHII Takafumi MIYASAKA Yu KOSAKA Hisashi NAKAMURA

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.87, no.3, pp.581-588, 2009 (Released:2009-07-08)

参考文献数

17

被引用文献数

10 11

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A reanalysis dataset is used to establish the relationship between the year-to-year fluctuations in the midwinter storm-track activity over the Far East measured by poleward heat flux associated with subweekly disturbances and the occurrence of the first spring storm with strong southerly winds over Japan (Haru-Ichiban). Our analysis reveals that its early (delayed) occurrence tends to follow the enhanced (suppressed) winter storm-track activity with less (more) apparent minimum in midwinter in the course of the seasonal march. A metric is defined on the basis of the eddy heat flux to measure the reproducibility of the particular seasonal march of the Far East storm-track activity simulated in each of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 climate models under the present climate. Under a particular global warming scenario, ensemble projection based only on the several models that show the highest reproducibility of the storm-track activity measured with the particular metric indicates that the future enhancement is likely in the midwinter storm-track activity associated with the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon, implying that Haru-Ichiban is likely to occur earlier in the late 21st century than in the 20th century.

著者

MURATA Hidehiko SAITOH Kotaro SUMIDA Yasuhiko

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-049, (Released:2018-07-13)

被引用文献数

12

---

Combination of three visible bands of the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on-board JMA's new-generation Himawari-8 and -9 geostationary meteorological satellites enable production of true color imagery. True color is intuitively understandable to human analysts and beneficial for monitoring surface and atmospheric features. It is especially useful when applied to frequent observation from a geostationary platform. This article reports on an application of a color reproduction approach based on the CIE 1931 XYZ color system to imagery rendering. The approach allows consideration of primary color (RGB) differences among satellite and output devices which in turn cause differences in the colors reproduced. The RGB signals observed by AHI are converted to XYZ tristimulus values, which are independent of devices themselves, and then re-converted to RGB signals for output devices via the application of 3 x 3 conversion matrices. The article also covers an objective technique for the evaluation of XYZ values accuracy. The evaluation indicated that the combination of AHI native RGB bands is sub-optimal for obtaining XYZ values as-is, while a combination in which the green band is replaced by a pseudo band with a central wavelength of around 0.555 µm is optimal. The pseudo band is generated via regression with existing visible and near-infrared bands as predictor variables. The imagery produced using this approach was termed True Color Reproduction (TCR). The approach is applicable to other satellites that have several bands in the visible to near-infrared spectral range, and has the potential for development toward the production of standardized sensor-independent true color imagery.

出版者

METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN

雑誌

氣象集誌. 第1輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.41, no.12, pp.640-653, 1922

著者

KAZUMORI Masahiro

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-037, (Released:2018-04-07)

被引用文献数

13

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This article reports on the impacts of Himawari-8 Clear Sky Radiance (CSR) data assimilation in the global and mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Adoption of the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on board JMA’s Himawari-8 and -9 satellites has enhanced observational capabilities in terms of spectral, horizontal, and temporal resolution. Improvements brought by the switchover from the Multi-functional Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2) to the new-generation Himawari-8 satellite include an upgrade to the horizontal resolution of CSR data from 64 to 32 km and an increase in the number of available water vapor bands from one to three. CSR products are obtained every hour and distributed to the NWP community. The improved horizontal and spectral resolution of Himawari-8 CSR data provides new information on horizontal water vapor distribution and vertical profiles in data assimilation. In data assimilation experiments using JMA’s global NWP system, the assimilation of Himawari-8’s three water vapor bands significantly improved the tropospheric humidity field in analysis, especially in the lower troposphere, as compared to assimilation of the single MTSAT-2 water vapor channel. First-guess (FG) departure statistics for microwave humidity sounders indicated an improvement in the water vapor field, especially over Himawari-8 observation areas. Improved forecasting of tropospheric temperature, humidity, and wind fields for Himawari-8 observation areas was also seen. In data assimilation experiments using JMA’s mesoscale NWP system, a disastrous heavy precipitation event that took place in Japan’s Kanto-Tohoku region in 2015 was investigated. A single water vapor band of Himawari-8 CSR corresponding to MTSAT-2 was assimilated, resulting in enhanced contrast of the water vapor field between moist and dry areas, as well as a realistic representation of moist air flows from the ocean in analysis. The changes also improved mesoscale model heavy precipitation forecasts.

著者

KANG Yunhee JEONG Jong-Hoon YOU Cheol-Hwan LEE Dong-In

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-050, (Released:2018-07-13)

被引用文献数

2

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On July 13, 2012, the bow echo was observed over the lee side of the Mt. Halla (1950 m above sea level) on Jeju Island, Korea. Three-dimensional wind-field and surface observation analyses were carried out to understand the structure and evolution of convective system with bow echo on the bell-shaped terrain. The northeastward-moving convective system passed over the approximately bell-shaped, isolated mountain with a mean speed of 17 m s-1. On the windward side of the mountain, the convective system developed by the inflow of unstable warm air from the ocean and terrain-induced upward motion, even with a low CAPE value of 511 J kg-1. When passing the lee side of the mountain, the bow echo was formed in the convective system by the strongest winds behind the bow echo. Behind the leading edge of the bow echo, the strengthened rear-inflow jet (RIJ) descended with relatively dry air along the surface, resulted in enhancing evaporative cooling. The precipitation-induced downdrafts generated a cold pool on the lee side of mountain. The development of an RIJ and cold pool formation both contributed to the evolution of the bow echo. In addition, the isolated bell-shaped terrain had a major indirect influence on the evolution of convective system with bow echo in this event.

著者

CHAN Kelvin T. F. CHAN Johnny C. L.

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-042, (Released:2018-04-27)

被引用文献数

14

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This paper presents a summary of some of the observational and numerical studies on the climatology and possible change mechanisms of the outer-core wind structure of a tropical cyclone (TC), which has been generally referred to as size, a term also to be used in this review although various definitions have been given in the literature. In all the ocean basins where TCs exist, TC size has been found to vary with season, year, decade, latitude and longitude. Such variations are related to those in the synoptic flow patterns in which the TCs are embedded. Several factors have been identified to be responsible for changes in TC size, which include environmental humidity, vortex structure, sea surface temperature and planetary vorticity. Each of these factors can modify the transport of lower tropospheric angular momentum into the TC and hence cause changes in its size. The paper ends with a discussion of outstanding issues in the study of the outer-core wind structure of a TC.

著者

WANG Yafei XU Xiaoyu

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-032, (Released:2018-04-07)

被引用文献数

13

---

The proposed study aims to examine the relation between the Tibetan Plateau (TP) thermal condition and El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). There were significantly positive correlations between the snow water equivalent (SWE) over the TP from November to next April and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) in Novmber from 1987 to 2005. SST in EEP in November is most significantly correlated with the TP-SWE in next April, which suggests an accumulative effect of the ENSO on the TP snow cover. Although El Niño conditions could bring anomalous snowfall over the TP by generating a wave train entering the North African-Asian jet, it is questionable if this impact could change the thermal condition over the TP. There was almost no significant negative correlation between the SWE and TP surface temperature (representing the TP thermal condition) in winter. This suggests that the TP thermal condition hardly varies with the anomalous snowfall caused by this ENSO impact, despite some cooling effect of snowfall during the El Niño phase. On the contrary, preceding El Niño conditions tended to be associated with increasing TP surface temperature in May and there were significant positive correlations between SWE in April and TP surface temperature in May and June. ENSO might play a part in affecting TP thermal condition in a way that is quite different from the previous research. A plausible mechanism based on the relation of ENSO-TP thermal condition has been proposed. The mechanism explained the direct and indirect effects of ENSO on the TP thermal condition and role that the seasonal progress can play in this relation. The issues about snow cover aging and the impact of global warming, among others, were also included in the mechanism.

著者

KAWAI Kei KAI Kenji JIN Yoshitaka SUGIMOTO Nobuo BATDORJ Dashdondog

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-023, (Released:2018-01-26)

被引用文献数

12

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The Gobi Desert is one of the major sources of Asian dust, which influences the climate system both directly and indirectly through its long-range transport by the westerlies. In this desert, three ground-based lidars are operated in Dalanzadgad, Sainshand, and Zamyn-Uud, Mongolia. This study firstly combined these lidars into a lidar network and shows the spatial development of a dust layer over the desert and the long-range transport of the dust during 22–23 May 2013 via the lidar network. During this dust event, a cold front accompanying an extratropical cyclone moved southeastward across the desert and sequentially passed through Dalanzadgad, Sainshand, and Zamyn-Uud. In Dalanzadgad, in the central part of the desert, a dust storm occurred owing to the strong wind (6–10 m s -1) associated with the cold front and reached a top height of 1.6 km. Some of the dust floated at a height of 0.9–1.6 km along the cold frontal surface. In Sainshand and Zamyn-Uud, in the eastern part of the desert, the dust layer extended from the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to the free troposphere in the updraft region of warm air in the cold frontal system. Overall, while the dust layer was moving across the desert with the cold frontal system, it was developing up to the free troposphere. The mechanism of this development can be explained by the combination of two processes as follows: (1) continuous emission of dust from the desert surface to the ABL by the strong wind around the cold front and (2) continuous transport of the dust from the ABL to the free troposphere by the updraft of the warm air in the cold frontal system. This mechanism can contribute to the long-range transport of dust by the westerlies in the free troposphere.

著者

SEINO Naoko ODA Ryoko SUGAWARA Hirofumi AOYAGI Toshinori

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-029, (Released:2018-02-17)

被引用文献数

6

---

During the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities (TOMACS) intensive observation period (IOP) in 2011-2013 summers, atmospheric environment of several heavy rainfalls was observed by means of radiosonde soundings in the Tokyo metropolitan area. We investigated formation and development processes of an extremely developed thunderstorm (Case 1 on 26 August 2011) and a moderately developed thunderstorm (Case 2 on 18 July 2013) observed in the TOMACS IOP, utilizing the radiosonde sounding data. Compared to Case 2, the mesoscale environment of the severe storm in Case 1 featured a lower level of free convection and a deeper layer of easterly flow. We carried out numerical simulations to investigate the formation processes of the convective systems in the two cases, using the Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) incorporating the Square Prism Urban Canopy (SPUC) scheme. Model results fairly represented the spatial distribution and amounts of the rainfall in both cases. In Case 1, the formation of a distinct convergence zone between easterly and southerly flows was the likely trigger of active convective systems around Tokyo. To further examine the urban impact on precipitation, we performed two comparative simulations, one using realistic current urban surface conditions (CRNT experiment) and the other using less urbanized surface conditions (LURB experiment). The CRNT experiment yielded more rainfall than the LURB experiment in the central urban area. It appears that higher temperatures caused by urbanization can lead to increased rainfall in Tokyo by intensifying convergence and ascending motion.

著者

V. CHANDRASEKAR Haonan CHEN Brenda PHILIPS

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-015, (Released:2018-01-12)

被引用文献数

42

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The Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Urban Demonstration Network consists of a combination of high resolution X-band radar network and a National Weather Service S-band radar system (i.e., KFWS radar). Based primarily on these radars, CASA has developed end-to-end warning system that includes sensors, software architecture, products, data dissemination and visualization, and user decision making. This paper presents a technical summary of the DFW radar network for urban weather disaster detection and mitigation, from the perspective of tracking and warning of hails, tornadoes, and floods. Particularly, an overview of the X-band radar network design tradeoffs is presented. The architecture and associated algorithms for various product systems are described, including the real-time hail detection system, the multiple Doppler vector wind retrieval system, and the high-resolution quantitative precipitation estimation system. Sample products in the presence of high wind, tornado, hail, and flash flood are provided, and the systems’ performance is demonstrated through cross validation with ground observations and weather reports.

著者

HIRANO Kohin MAKI Masayuki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-028, (Released:2018-02-24)

被引用文献数

8

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This paper reports the development of a very-short-range nowcast system, VIL Nowcast, which aims to provide precise forecasts of imminent rainfall, and in particular, heavy and localized events. The system is based on the vertically integrated liquid water content (VIL), which is estimated from three-dimensional radar observations as well as the 1-minute-resolution rainfall map obtained from the X-band polarimetric (multi-parameter) RAdar Information Network (XRAIN), to predict rainfall amounts over 10 minutes periods that extend to 10--60 minutes into the future. The spatial resolution of VIL Nowcast was 500 m, and nowcasts were produced at a temporal resolution of 5 minutes. Three precipitation events, of which two were isolated storms and one was a synoptic storm, were used as case studies to verify the model. The performance of VIL Nowcast was evaluated against the XRAIN radar rainfall data and an existing rainfall-rate nowcast system using the same advection scheme. The scope of the evaluation was limited mainly to the first prediction for 10 minutes ahead. It was found that VIL Nowcast showed a small, statistically significant improvement over the entire precipitation event, although its skill decreased at longer lead times and at higher thresholds. The key findings of this study are: (1) VIL Nowcast appears capable of generating skillful forecasts at short lead times, even for very localized heavy rainfall; (2) VIL Nowcast can reduce the time lag in the rainfall-rate nowcast system at initiation and peak precipitation; and (3) this system may improve the accuracy of heavy rainfall alerts provided for public activities and emergency alarms.

著者

Robert CIFELLI V. CHANDRASEKAR Haonan CHEN Lynn E. JOHNSON

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-016, (Released:2018-01-12)

被引用文献数

64

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An X-band radar system was deployed in Santa Clara, CA from February through May 2016 to support the National Weather Service in the event of potential flooding during one of the largest El Niños on record and to provide better understanding of rainfall processes occurring in the Bay Area. The system was also used to provide high quality precipitation estimation (quantitative precipitation estimation - QPE) for Santa Clara’s urban hydrologic modeling system. Although the Bay Area has coverage from the NEXRAD operational radar network, the combination of topographic influences and proximity to a maritime environment provide unique QPE challenges in this urban region. The X-band radar provided high quality rainfall estimates that performed better than NEXRAD, demonstrating the added value of the X-band system. High resolution rainfall monitoring systems in urban regions also provide a host of benefits across different sectors of the economy, including flood damage mitigation, water quality, water supply, and transportation.

著者

Tetsuya SANO Satoru OISHI

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-012, (Released:2017-12-21)

被引用文献数

2

---

To elucidate the formation of a localized rainfall on a basin with heat and aridity under weak synoptic disturbance in summer, the characteristics of atmospheric conditions on the Kofu Basin preceding the appearance of primary precipitating cells were described from 23 localized rainfall events on the Kofu Basin on days of weak synoptic disturbance at the surface from 1 June to 30 September in 2012 to 2014. Furthermore, using the case study conducted on 25 July 2014, the formation of the atmospheric conditions was described from the standpoint of moisture behavior. Owing to the thermal contrast between the Kofu Basin with heat and aridity and the outside environment, the south-component wind blowing in the valley connecting it to the coastal region of Suruga Bay and the east-component wind blowing in the valley connecting it to the Kanto Plain entered the Kofu Basin as southwesterly wind and southeasterly wind, respectively, which caused an increase in the water vapor mixing ratio and a slight decrease in temperature at the surface. After that, the amount of precipitable water vapor derived by the global navigation satellite system observation (GNSS-PWV) at Nakamichi in the central region of the Kofu Basin increased abruptly after the moderate increase in GNSS-PWV at all the observation points on the Kofu Basin. Finally, a cloud appeared over the local region between the southwesterly wind and the southeasterly wind; the precipitating cells appeared here at 3.25 to 6.25 km above sea level. From the above results, the moisture transport to the Kofu Basin, the moisture concentration in the local region, and the appearance of precipitating cells were discussed as the formation of atmospheric conditions leading to a localized rainfall on a basin with heat and aridity.

著者

Takuya KAWABATA Hans-Stefan BAUER Thomas SCHWITALLA Volker WULFMEYER Ahoro ADACHI

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-017, (Released:2017-12-27)

被引用文献数

6

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In the preparation for polarimetric radar data assimilation, it is essential to examine the accuracy of forward operators based on different formulations. For this purpose, four forward operators that focus on warm rain condition are compared with both each other and actual observations with respect to their performance for C-band dual polarimetric radars. These operators mutually consider radar beam broadening and climatological beam bending. The first operator derives polarimetric parameters assuming an exponential raindrop size distribution obtained by the models and is based on fitting functions against scattering amplitudes. The other three converters estimate the mixing ratio of rainwater from the measured polarimetric parameters. The second converter uses both the horizontal reflectivity (ZH) and the differential reflectivity (ZDR), the third uses the specific differential phase (KDP), and the fourth uses both KDP and ZDP, respectively. Comparisons with modeled measurements show that the accuracy of the third converter is superior to the other two. Another evaluation with actual observations shows that the first converter has slightly higher fractions skill scores than the other three. Considering the attenuation effect, the fitting function and the operator only with KDP are found to be the most suitable for data assimilation at C-band.

著者

Baosheng Li Ruiqiang Ding Jianping Li Yidan Xu Jiao Li

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.52-56, 2018 (Released:2018-04-26)

参考文献数

33

被引用文献数

5

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The connection between the predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has recently attracted widespread attention. Of particular importance is the effect of El Niño and La Niña on EASM predictability. In this paper, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) method is used to analyze reanalysis data, and the results show that the EASM potential predictability intensity is much stronger under El Niño forcing than that under La Niña forcing. Meanwhile, the asymmetric response of EASM predictability remains within the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) simulations. The EASM predictability is quantitatively determined using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method. The EASM predictability limit under El Niño forcing is longer than that for La Niña forcing. Two monsoon indices are used to measure the EASM, the predictability limits of which perform differently because of their particular definitions. However, the asymmetric response of EASM predictability to El Niño and La Niña can be verified using observational data and model experiments.

著者

Hirofumi SUGAWARA Ryoko ODA Naoko SEINO

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-010, (Released:2017-12-21)

被引用文献数

6

---

Does the cities enhance precipitation? It is an unsettled question and the comprehensive answer has not been archived for it. This study focuses on the urban heat excess and evaluates its influence on atmospheric instability which is the background condition for the convective precipitation. A simple approach was developed that involved calculating the daytime evolution of the mixed layer over homogeneous ground surface. Calculations were based on the ensemble average of observations. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) was evaluated for both urban and rural land cover. Urban heat excess, which was 200 W m-2 higher in the urban than rural area, increased CAPE by 75 % comparing to the rural CAPE of 513 J kg-1. Results show that cities could cause favorable stratification of the atmosphere for convective precipitation.

著者

KAWASE Hiroaki SASAI Takahiro YAMAZAKI Takeshi ITO Rui DAIRAKU Koji SUGIMOTO Shiori SASAKI Hidetaka MURATA Akihiko NOSAKA Masaya

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-022, (Released:2018-01-30)

被引用文献数

27

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Geographical distributions of heavy snowfall, especially in the Pacific Ocean side of Japan, have not been elucidated due to low occurrence frequency of heavy snowfall and limited number of snow observation points. This study investigates the characteristics of synoptic conditions for heavy daily snowfall from western to northeastern Japan in the present climate, analyzing high-resolution regional climate ensemble experiments with 5-km grid spacing. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the 10-ensemble members of the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) historical experiments are applied to the lateral boundary conditions of the regional climate model. Dynamical downscaling using d4PDF (d4PDF-DS) enables us to evaluate much heavier snowfall events than those simulated by dynamical downscaling using JRA-55 (JRA55-DS). Over the Sea of Japan side, heavy snowfall occurs due to cold air outbreaks, while over the Pacific Ocean side, heavy snowfall is brought by extratropical cyclones passing along the Pacific Ocean coast. A comparison between JRA55-DS and d4PDF-DS indicates that heavier snowfall can occur due to more developed extratropical cyclones and enhanced cold air damming in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The geographical distributions of extremely heavy snowfall are different between two typical synoptic conditions, i.e., cold air outbreaks and extratropical cyclones. The difference is much clearer in the extremely heavy snowfall events than in all snowfall events. Heavy daily snowfall occurs in January and February on the Pacific Ocean side, in December and January on the Sea of Japan side, and in November and March in high mountainous areas. Saturated water vapor pressure is largest around 0 ℃ under the snowing conditions. Synoptic conditions from late fall to winter are closely related to preferable conditions for heavy snowfall over the mountainous areas where the surface air temperature is much less than 0 ℃ in the heavy snowfall events.