著者

Qoosaku Moteki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.15A-007, (Released:2019-06-19)

被引用文献数

13

---

Heavy rain in western Japan was broadly induced by the stagnation of the Baiu front during 5-7 July 2018. This study hypothesizes that cold air advection over the Sea of Japan intensified by Typhoon Prapiroon (Typhoon No. 7) was one of the triggering factors for the formation process of the Baiu front over western Japan. Typhoon Prapiroon passed over the Sea of Japan on 4 July and became extratropical at approximately 40°N on 5 July. During its passage, the strong southward pressure gradient force to the north of Typhoon Prapiroon broke down the convergence line of the Baiu front that remained at approximately 45°N before 4 July and thick cold air from the Okhotsk High flowed over the Sea of Japan. The Okhotsk High expanded toward the Sea of Japan and enhanced cold air advection to the north of western Japan. As a result, the Baiu front was stationary at approximately 35°N after 5 July. In addition, the westerly jet in the east of an upper-level trough deepened along the typhoon track was associated with the adiabatic component of the ascending motion over the isentropic upslope and was suggested to contribute to the maintenance of Baiu frontal convection.

著者

YAMAZAKI Akira HONDA Meiji KAWASE Hiroaki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-012, (Released:2018-11-16)

被引用文献数

15

---

This study found that regional snowfall distributions in a Japan-Sea side area of Japan are controlled by intraseasonal jet variability, particularly the 10-day-timescale quasi-stationary Rossby waves across the Eurasian continent and the atmospheric blocking over the East Asian region. This study mainly focused on the Niigata area, which is representative of heavy snowfall areas in Japan. Based on previous studies, three types of dominant snowfall distributions were defined: 1) the plain (P) type, which is characterized by heavy snowfall events predominant in coastal regions of the Niigata area, 2) the mountain (M) type, which occurs in the mountainous regions, and 3) the PM type, which occurs across the whole Niigata area. Our results revealed that all distribution types were related to the south-ward shift of the westerly jet over Japan associated with an intensified trough, i.e., cyclonic anomalies, originating from quasi-stationary Rossby waves along westerly jets over Eurasia (Eurasian jets). The cyclonic anomalies were found to be also related to blocking cyclones because the frequency of blocking events considerably increased in the East Siberian region. The mechanisms leading to the trough intensification were different among the events of the three snowfall types. The formation of Siberian blocking with relatively different positions and different paths of quasi-stationary Rossby wave packet propagation along Eurasian jets were evident in the distribution types. Therefore, local-scale snowfall distributions in the Japan-Sea side area are determined by anomalous large-scale circulations, which can be evidently distinguished in the global reanalysis data.

著者

Yuhei Yamamoto Hirohiko Ishikawa

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.179-184, 2018 (Released:2018-11-20)

参考文献数

22

被引用文献数

8

---

This paper provides the first attempt to investigate the spatial variability of diurnal change patterns of land surface temperature (LST) in urban areas of Japan by applying principal component analysis on LST data retrieved from Himawari-8 geostationary satellite data. The Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas were the focus of the analysis, and the target days were days with zero cloud cover in summer and winter. The results of the analysis showed that diurnal cycles of LST are mainly formed by two temporal change patterns in both seasons. For the summer case, the first two principal components (PCs) represented the temporal change patterns related to the amplitude and phase, respectively. For the winter case, the first two PCs represented the temporal change patterns related to the amplitude and gradual change in LST throughout the day, respectively. Results suggest that these temporal change patterns in both seasons have spatial variability partially dictated by land use and wind speed/direction.

著者

Michiya Hayashi Hideo Shiogama

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-016, (Released:2022-03-28)

被引用文献数

4

---

The technique for composing a small subset of global climate models is critical to provide climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies of regional climate changes. A recent study developed a novel statistical method for selecting a mini-ensemble of five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 for widely capturing different future projections of Japanese climate across eight atmospheric variables at the surface. However, it remains unclear which mini-ensemble model contributes to efficiently covering the full projection ranges. Here, we rank each mini-ensemble projection around Japan among a full ensemble, showing that the selected five models capture the full ranges without systematic biases, except for relative humidity. Furthermore, we find that the widespread global warming level contributes to covering well the projection uncertainties in the daily-mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures and downward longwave radiation but not in precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, or wind speed. As the last four variables are sensitive to various factors, such as large-scale circulation and aerosol-forcing changes, rather than global-mean temperature changes, the model selection method featured here is preferable for capturing the wide future projection ranges in Japan.

著者

Ryuho Kataoka Stephen D. Winn Emile Touber

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-019, (Released:2022-04-26)

被引用文献数

3

---

Large-amplitude meteotsunamis were observed in many areas in Japan, following the arrival of barometric Lamb waves emitted by an underwater volcanic eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai in January 2022. We modeled the power spectra of the tidal level data obtained from 12 tide stations of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, based on a method of transfer function which converts the barometric pressure pulse spectra into the meteotsunami spectra. The obtained transfer functions are similar at 12 stations. The pressure pulse spectra are obtained from the ensemble average of ∼1500 Soratena weather sensors of Weathernews Inc. distributed over Japan. The observed meteotsunami spectra can be characterized by the enhanced seiche eigenmodes at each station excited by the mesoscale pressure pulse within the amplitude error of 50%, which contributes for accumulating the necessary knowledge to understand the potential dangers in various different areas over Japan.

著者

Kenji Kai Kei Kawai Atsuya Ito Yuki Aizawa Yuki Minamoto Erdenebadrakh Munkhjargal Enkhbaatar Davaanyam

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.130-133, 2021 (Released:2021-07-30)

参考文献数

24

被引用文献数

5

---

The Gobi Desert is a dominant source of dust on the Asian continent. In this study, we analysed the characteristics of a typical Mongolian dust storm and identified a prominent dust hotspot in the Gobi Desert. During a field survey from Ulaanbaatar (the capital of Mongolia) to Dalanzadgad in the Gobi Desert, we encountered a typical dust storm on 28 April 2019, exhibiting a distinct dust wall. The head of the dust storm crossed the road several kilometres ahead of our vehicle. The head of the storm had a height of 600 m, and its structure suggested that the dust storm was induced by a gravity current. We entered the front of the dust storm and measured a maximum wind speed of 18.2 m/s and a visibility of less than 10 m. The normalized dust number concentration at 7 μm was 59 cm−3. Moreover, Himawari-8 Dust RGB imagery showed that the dust storm occurred in an orographic convergence zone. This zone connects two valleys that are sandwiched between three mountains in the Gobi Desert: the Khangai, Altai, and Gurvan Saikhan Mountains. Our results suggest that this zone is a remarkable dust hotspot in the Gobi Desert.

著者

HAYNES Peter HITCHCOCK Peter HITCHMAN Matthew YODEN Shigeo HENDON Harry KILADIS George KODERA Kunihiko SIMPSON Isla

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-040, (Released:2021-03-24)

被引用文献数

32

---

Observational and model studies suggest that the stratosphere exerts a significant influence on the tropical troposphere. The corresponding influence, through dynamical coupling, of the stratosphere on the extratropical troposphere has over the last 15-20 years been intensively investigated, with consequent improvement in scientific understanding which is already being exploited by weather forecasting and climate prediction centres. The coupling requires both communication of dynamical effects from stratosphere to troposphere and feedbacks within the troposphere which enhance the tropospheric response. Scientific understanding of the influence of the stratosphere on the tropical troposphere is far less developed. This review summarises the current observational and modelling evidence for that influence, on timescales ranging from diurnal to centennial. The current understanding of potentially relevant mechanisms for communication and for feedbacks within the tropical troposphere and the possible implications of the coupling for weather and climate prediction are discussed. These include opportunities for model validation and for improved subseasonal and seasonal forecasting and the effects, for example, of changes in stratospheric ozone and of potential geoengineering approaches. Outstanding scientific questions are identified and future needs for observational and modelling work to resolve these questions are suggested.

著者

Hirotaka Kamahori Osamu Arakawa

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.165-169, 2018 (Released:2018-11-09)

参考文献数

18

被引用文献数

2 10

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Tropical cyclone (TC) induced precipitation (TCP) over Japan is evaluated with the rain gauge observation based gridded dataset APHRO_JP. The TC–influenced frequency reaches a maximum in the Nansei Islands and decreases monotonically with latitude. On the other hand, the distribution of TCP indicates different characteristics from the one of TC–influenced frequency. The largest annual TCP, 500 mm yr−1 or more, occurs over eastern Kyushu (E-Kyushu), southern Shikoku (S-Shikoku), and the eastern Kii peninsula (E-Kii), where it accounts for 15% or more of the total precipitation. The maximum daily TCP amounts to 200 mm d−1 in those three areas, which are all located on the eastern side of Japan and correspond to eastward or southeastward topographic inclines. A significant relationship is found between the amount of annual TCP and topographic incline, and the large amount of TCP concentrates in the eastward or the southeastward inclines. The extreme daily TCP once every 50 years is also evaluated. The extreme daily TCP is estimated to be 500 mm d−1 comparable to the climatological annual TCP in E-Kyushu, S-Shikoku, and E-Kii. These three areas appear to be the most hazardous part of Japan in terms of TCP.

著者

Takumi Matsunobu Mio Matsueda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15A, pp.19-24, 2019 (Released:2019-06-22)

参考文献数

27

被引用文献数

8

---

Extremely heavy rainfall events occurred over western Japan in early July 2018. This study assesses the predictability of these events for the period 5-7 July using three operational medium-range ensemble forecasts available from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and ensemble simulations conducted with an ECMWF model and NCEP operational ensemble initial conditions. All three operational ensembles predicted extreme rainfall on 5-6 July at lead times of ≤ 6 days, indicating the high predictability of this event. However, the extreme rainfall event of 6-7 July was less predictable. The NCEP forecasts, initialised on 30 June, performed better at predicting this event than the other operational forecasts. The JMA forecasts initialised on 1 July showed improved predictability; however, the ECMWF forecasts initialised after 30 June showed only gradual improvements as the initialisation time progressed. The ensemble simulations revealed that the lower predictability of the rainfall in the ECMWF forecasts on 6-7 July can be attributed to the model rather than to the initial conditions. Accurate prediction of the North Pacific Subtropical High is a prerequisite for accurate prediction of such extreme rainfall events.

著者

Toshiya Yoshida Tetsuya Takemi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.174-178, 2018 (Released:2018-11-18)

参考文献数

17

被引用文献数

9

---

Effects of obstacle-height variability on mixing length and dispersive stress are investigated by conducting large-eddy simulations of airflows over arrays of roughness obstacles with variable height. We evaluate differences among three simulations of flows over obstacles with no, moderate, and high obstacle-height variability. Within the canopies, effective mixing length shows one local maximum and minimum in the simulation with no obstacle-height variability but two maxima and minima in the simulations with obstacle-height variability. The number of the local maxima and minima corresponds to that of the shear layers seen at the heights of obstacle tops. Enhanced dispersive stress appears within the canopy between the heights of the lower- and higher-obstacle tops in the simulations with obstacle-height variability. Particularly in the simulations with high obstacle-height variability, the magnitude of dispersive stress becomes comparable to that of the Reynolds stress at the height of the lower-obstacle top. These results suggest that actual urban areas with high building-height variability should significantly affect properties of mixing length and dispersive stress.

著者

Le Duc Takuya Kawabata Kazuo Saito Tsutao Oizumi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.41-47, 2021 (Released:2021-03-08)

参考文献数

21

被引用文献数

8 15

---

Forecast performances of the July 2020 Kyushu heavy rain have been revisited with the aim of improving the forecasts for this event. While the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) deterministic forecasts were relatively good, the JMA's ensemble forecasts somehow missed this event. Our approach is to introduce flow-dependence into assimilation by running a 1000-member local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF1000) to extract more information from observations and to better quantify forecast uncertainties. To save computational costs, vertical localization is removed in running LETKF1000. Qualitative and quantitative verifications show that the LETKF1000 forecasts outperform the operational forecasts both in deterministic and probabilistic forecasts.Rather than a trick to save computational costs, removal of vertical localization is shown to be the main contribution to the outperformance of LETKF1000. If vertical localization is removed, forecasts with similar performances can be obtained with 100 ensemble members. We hypothesize that running ensemble Kalman filters with around 1000 ensemble members is more effective if vertical localization is removed at the same time. Since this study examines only one case, to assess benefit of removing vertical localization rigorously when the number of ensemble members is around 1000, a larger set of cases needs to be considered in future.

著者

Mariko Kumamoto Michiko Otsuka Takeshi Sakai Takashi Hamagami Hiroshi Kawamura Tadayoshi Aoshima Fumiaki Fujibe

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, pp.56-59, 2013 (Released:2013-05-04)

参考文献数

9

被引用文献数

6 9

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A field experiment to clarify the characteristics of temperature distribution near an asphalt car road was carried out at the Meteorological Instruments Center in Tsukuba, Japan. Fifteen thermometers equipped with artificially ventilated radiation shields were installed on a wide grass field within a distance of 10 m from edges of the road. At a height of 0.5 m above the ground, the temperature on the leeward side of the road was found to show substantial bias from that on the windward side of the road. The biases were positive values of 0.2-0.4°C on the average and larger when the thermometers was nearer to the road or in cases of lower wind speed. The temporal variation of the biases showed a diurnal change and had a maximum peak in the evening and negative values during some hours of the day. Smaller positive biases around 0.1°C were also found at a height of 1.5 m during some time of the day whereas small negative biases were seen at a height of 2.5 m in summer. These results indicate complicated distribution of roadside temperature, although they can partly be interpreted by advection of air heated over the road.

著者

Tsubasa Kohyama Hiroaki Miura Shoichiro Kido

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.246-250, 2021 (Released:2021-12-23)

参考文献数

14

---

A modified version of the principal component analysis (PCA) is introduced by reconsidering statistical degrees of freedom in spatial dimensions based on spatial auto-correlations. In the conventional PCA, data points that represent equal areas are assumed to have equal amount of information. In our new method, the intensive variability extraction (IVE), data points correlated with less other data points are weighted more before performing PCA. Hence, variability with independent information is emphasized, even if the variability is confined to small areas.Sea surface temperature (SST) data at each grid in the tropics are shown to have fewer spatial statistical degrees of freedom than that in the extratropics. Tropical SSTs exhibit covariability with large areas, because oceanic equatorial waves and atmospheric gravity waves share temperature information with surrounding areas. As to the extratropics, grids along the western boundaries of oceanic basins are more independent than those in the east, following dynamical requirement of the Earth's rotation.Using IVE, climate modes that involve interscale covariability are extracted. IVE performed for the Pan-Pacific SSTs extracts the Pacific Decadal Oscillation assuming the aforementioned a priori dynamical expectation. Using extratropical SSTs, it is demonstrated that IVE detects synchronicity of small-scale variability between distant narrow regions.

著者

Masayoshi Ishii Yoshikazu Fukuda Shoji Hirahara Soichiro Yasui Toru Suzuki Kanako Sato

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.13, pp.163-167, 2017 (Released:2017-09-14)

参考文献数

31

被引用文献数

104

---

The simplest global mapping method and dense data coverage for the global oceans by the latest observation network ensure an estimate of global ocean heat content (OHC) within a satisfactory uncertainty for the last 60 years. The observational database conditionally presented a level high enough for practical use for the global OHC estimation when applying bias corrections of expendable bathythermograph, assuming that the other severe observational biases are not included in the database. Uncertainties in annual global mean temperatures averaged vertically from the surface to 1,500 m are within 0.01 K for the period from 1955 onward, when only sampling errors are taken into account. Those in annual mean global OHC of an improved objective analysis for 0-1,500 m depth is 16ZJ on average throughout the period. Compared to previous studies, the new objective analysis provides a higher estimation of the global 0-1,500 m OHC trend for a longer period from 1955 to 2015, which is an increase of 350 ± 57ZJ with a 95% confidence interval.

著者

NAKANISHI Mikio NIINO Hiroshi ANZAI Taro

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-013, (Released:2021-11-05)

---

It is desirable that a surface layer scheme in an atmospheric numerical model is consistent with an atmospheric boundary layer scheme incorporated in the same model. In this study, stability functions based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory for momentum and heat, ϕm and ϕh, in the stable surface layer are derived from the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) scheme modified so that turbulent diffusivity coefficients have no critical gradient Richardson number. The resulting stability functions are approximated by ϕm = 1 + 4.8z/L and ϕh = 0.74 + 6.0z/L, which can be analytically integrated with respect to height z to obtain momentum and heat fluxes, where L is the Obukhov length. The fluxes thus obtained are compared with those obtained from stability functions in four previous studies: they turn out to be nearly the same as those from two of them, and show better agreement with observational data of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean experiment (SHEBA) over sea ice than those from the other two studies. Detailed comparisons of the results of the MYNN scheme with the SHEBA data suggest that significant variations of the fluxes observed for a period of “winter” when the ice was covered with dry snow may have been caused by those of the surface roughness around the observational site. The stability functions obtained from the MYNN scheme predict that the bulk and flux Richardson numbers approach critical values of 0.26 and 0.21, respectively, in the limit of z/L → ∞. These critical values result from Kolmogorov hypothesis applied to the turbulent dissipation in the MYNN scheme and are considered to correspond to a transition from Kolmogorov to non-Kolmogorov turbulence.

著者

Kohei Fukuda Kazuaki Yasunaga Ryo Oyama Akiyoshi Wada Atsushi Hamada Hironori Fudeyasu

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-019, (Released:2020-05-25)

---

This study examined the diurnal cycles of brightness temperature (TB) and upper-level horizontal winds associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific basin, making use of data retrieved from geostationary-satellite (Himawari-8) observations that exhibited unprecedented temporal and spatial resolutions. The results of a spectral analysis revealed that diurnal cycles prevail in TB variations over the outer regions of TCs (300-500 km from the storm center). The dominance of the diurnal cycle was also found in variations in the radial wind (Vr) in intensive TCs, although there was no dominant cycle in tangential wind variation. In addition, coherence spectra demonstrated that the diurnal cycles of TB and Vr are significantly coherent in intensive TCs. The migration speed of TB and Vr anomalies exceeded the time-mean Vr, and it was speculated that diurnal cycle signals propagate (i.e., are not advected) toward the outer regions of TCs.

著者

Hiroaki Ueda Mikihiro Yokoi Masaya Kuramochi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17B, no.Special_Edition, pp.14-18, 2021 (Released:2021-09-09)

参考文献数

28

被引用文献数

7

---

During the early summer of 2020, a stagnation of the Meiyu-Baiu front brought torrential rainfall over East Asia. Meanwhile, the anticyclone was much enhanced over the subtropical western Pacific (SWP), which contributed abundant moisture to the Meiyu-Baiu rainband along the western rim of the anticyclone. Based on the sensitivity experiments of the linear baroclinic model by prescribing the observed diabatic heating anomalies, a combination of anomalous convection over the Indian Ocean and reduced rainfall over the western Pacific can account for the maintenance of zonally elongated SWP anticyclone. Interestingly, this period corresponded to the developing stage of La Niña, while the convective activities were notably suppressed over the warmed western Pacific. The sensitivity experiments to SST anomalies using the atmospheric general circulation model shows that the attenuated convection over the western Pacific can be ascribed to the warmed Indian Ocean associated with an atmospheric Kelvin wave wedge from the Indian Ocean. Overall, the suppressant SST effect of the Indian Ocean opposes and is greater than that of tropical Pacific. We issue a caveat regarding the additivity of the remote influence across the maritime continent. These results have important implications for the predictability of early summer rainfall over East Asia.

著者

Masaya Kuramochi Hiroaki Ueda Chiaki Kobayashi Youichi Kamae Koutarou Takaya

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17B, no.Special_Edition, pp.9-13, 2021 (Released:2021-08-26)

参考文献数

29

被引用文献数

7

---

The anomalous warm winter from December 2019 to February 2020 over East Asia, particularly the anticyclonic anomaly around Japan, was examined from the teleconnection perspective anchored by a warmed Indian Ocean and the El Niño Modoki. In the upper troposphere, high–low–high wave patterns progressing from the Arabian Sea toward Japan via the southern region of China, coupled with the wave-activity flux diagnosis, implicate the propagation of stationary Rossby waves caused by enhanced convection in the western Indian Ocean and suppressed convection around the Maritime Continent. These anomalous convective activities could be responsible for the northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the ensuing warm conditions over East Asia. The atmospheric response to the observed diabatic heating by means of the linear baroclinic model well reproduced the observations. Moreover, sensitivity experiments of the atmospheric general circulation model to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially in the warmed western Indian and central Pacific oceans, can help understand the anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent sector and subsequently weakened convection. The warmer SST observed around the Maritime Continent alone reproduces the enhancement of rainfall and subsequent cold anomalies around Japan, suggesting the importance of trans-basin interaction for teleconnection towards East Asia.

著者

Masaki Katsumata Kyoko Taniguchi Tomoaki Nishizawa

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16A, no.Special_Edition, pp.6-11, 2020 (Released:2020-06-20)

参考文献数

30

被引用文献数

2

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A shipboard lidar system was examined the capability to retrieve detailed variation of the water vapor mixing ratio in and above the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). The water vapor mixing ratio is retrieved from the ratio of Raman lidar signals by water vapor and by nitrogen, with the help of radiosonde data beside. Data obtained during two special observations, Pre-YMC and YMC-Sumatra, off the west coast of Sumatra island were examined.The mixing ratio was retrieved in the nighttime over 1 km height with the resolution of 10-minutes in temporal and 120-meters in vertical. The root mean square difference from the radiosonde data is about or less than 1 g/kg in MABL. A case study demonstrates that the retrieved spatiotemporal variation of water vapor mixing ratio captures meso-scale drying and moistening in detail. The capabilities of the retrieved data were well demonstrated, while number of improvements are expected in future work.

著者

NAOI Moeka KAMAE Youichi UEDA Hiroaki MEI Wei

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-027, (Released:2020-02-10)

被引用文献数

15

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow water vapor transport bands over the mid-latitudes, often cause great socio-economic impacts over East Asia. While it has been shown that summertime AR activity over East Asia is strongly induced by preceding-winter El Niño development, it remains unclear the extent to which seasonal transitions of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from winter to summer affect the AR activity. Here we examine the relationship between the seasonal transitions of ENSO and the summertime AR activity over East Asia using an atmospheric reanalysis and high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble simulations. A rapid transition from preceding-winter El Niño to summertime La Niña results in more AR occurrence over northern East Asia via northward expansion of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific compared to sustained or decayed El Niño cases. The northward expansion of the anticyclone is consistent with a steady response of the atmosphere to the anomalous condensation heating over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific. Meridional positions of the extratropical AR occurrence and circulation anomalies are different between the reanalysis and AGCM simulations, which is possibly contributed by a limited sample size and/or AGCM biases and suggests that seasonal prediction of AR-related natural disaster risk over East Asia on a regional scale remains a challenge.