著者
Seika Tanji Masaru Inatsu
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.15, pp.32-36, 2019 (Released:2019-02-13)
参考文献数
31

Blowing snow potential is diagnosed for typical cases around Sapporo, Japan, as snow concentration and visibility based on dynamically downscaled data with 1-km resolution. The results are consistent with the blowing-snow records on time and place of traffic disruption, when the dynamical downscaling (DDS) reproduced wind speed well for a case. The diagnosis with mesoscale model analysis with 5-km resolution does not reproduce the blowing snow events in most area, however. Hence, the DDS potentially, not perfectly, adds the value to estimate blowing snow potential, despite a large scale-gap from an explicit representation of small-scale turbulence related to blowing snow. Sensitivity tests clarify that blowing snow requires strong wind and freezing temperature at the surface.
著者
Akifumi Nishi Hiroyuki Kusaka
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.15, pp.12-16, 2019 (Released:2019-02-05)
参考文献数
24

This study uses a numerical model to examine how a convex feature and a gap feature in a mountain range affect the leeward wind field. In the “convexity case”, the mountain ridge has a convex feature (viewed from above). In the “gap case”, the mountain ridge has a gap. The results show that both cases have local winds at the surface exceeding 8 m s−1, and both have similar spatial flow-patterns. However, the momentum budgets at the strong-wind regions differ between the cases. In the convexity case, the downdrafts are important in the momentum balance, whereas in the gap case, both the downdrafts and the pressure-gradient force are important. Thus, although their spatial patterns of surface wind are similar to each other, their mechanisms for producing a strong local wind differ.Sensitivity experiments of Frm show that strong-wind appears in both the convexity and gap cases when Frm is between 0.42 and 1.04. In contrast, when Frm is 0.21, strong winds only appear in the gap case because the flow can go around the gap. When Frm exceeds 1.25, strong surface winds appear in the entire leeward plain.
著者
Tetsuya Takemi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.15, pp.iii, 2019 (Released:2019-02-01)
参考文献数
1

The Editorial Committee of Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) gives The SOLA Award to outstanding paper(s) published each year. I am pleased to announce that The SOLA Award in 2018 is going to be presented to the paper by Dr. Kosuke Ito et al., entitled with “Analysis and forecast using dropsonde data from the inner-core region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017) obtained during the first aircraft missions of T-PARCII” (Ito et al. 2018). Importance of dropsonde observations in the analysis and forecast of tropical cyclones (TCs) is well known, and such observations were operationally performed for the Atlantic hurricane. After the termination of the operational dropsonde observations in late 1980s, Dvorak technique has been used to estimate the intensity of TCs. However, uncertainties of Dvorak technique have been discussed for a long time, and dropsonde observations are essentially important for the precise information on TCs. The authors conducted dropsonde observations from an aircraft for TC Lan (2017) and, by assimilating the observed data, performed forecast experiments of the TC. They demonstrated potentially a positive impact of the dropsonde observations on the analysis and forecast of the TC. This study has demonstrated the importance of the dropsonde observations for TCs and is expected to enhance further studies investigations on the improvement of the analysis and forecast of TCs. Therefore, the Editorial Committee of SOLA highly evaluates the excellence of the paper.
著者
TOCHIMOTO Eigo NIINO Hiroshi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-043, (Released:2018-04-27)

This study used the JRA-55 reanalysis dataset to analyze the structure and environment of extratropical cyclones (ECs) that spawned tornadoes (tornadic ECs: TECs) between 1961 and 2011 in Japan. Composite analysis indicated that the differences between the structure and environment of TECs and those of ECs that did not spawn tornadoes (non-tornadic ECs: NTECs) vary with the seasons. In spring (March–May), TECs are associated with stronger upper-level potential vorticity and colder mid-level temperature than NTECs. The colder air at the mid-level contributes to the increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) of TECs. TECs in winter (December–February: DJF) and those northward of 40°N in autumn (September–November: SON) are accompanied by larger CAPE than are NTECs. The larger CAPE for TECs in DJF is caused by larger moisture and warmer temperature at low levels, and that for TECs northward of 40°N in SON (NSON) is caused by the colder mid-level temperature associated with an upper-level trough. The distribution of the energy helicity index also shows significant differences between TECs and NTECs for DJF and NSON. On the other hand, the distribution of the 0–1 km storm relative environmental helicity (SREH) shows no significant differences between TECs and NTECs in most seasons except DJF. A comparison of TECs between Japan and the United States (US) shows that SREH and CAPE are noticeably larger in the US. It is suggested that these differences occur because TECs in the US (Japan) develop over land (ocean), which exerts more (less) surface friction and diurnal heating.
著者
Deqiang Liu Xubin Zhang Yerong Feng Ning Pan Chuanrong Huang
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.203-209, 2018 (Released:2018-12-26)
参考文献数
39

Using data from nine ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), we analyze uncertainties in forecasted tropical cyclone TC track (TCT), TC intensity (TCI) and relevant heavy rainfall (TCHR) for Typhoon Soudelor (2015) as it affected the Taiwan Strait and surrounding regions. The largest uncertainties in track predictions occurred when Soudelor traversed Taiwan and when it recurved northeastward after making landfall in mainland China. These large uncertainties seem to be ascribed to the topography of Taiwan and the spread of the perturbed steering flows, respectively. TCI spread was stronger before rather than after the Soudelor made landfall, with regional EPSs having stronger spread than global EPSs. This TCI spread showed high correlation with the evolution of the spread of vertical wind shear at the location of TC center. Large spread in 24-h TCHR during Soudelor's landfall correlated with low-level jets and convergences in most EPSs, and TC track variation had played important role in TCHR uncertainty. At last, the spread–skill relationships among different groups are explored.
著者
JINNO Takuya MIYAKAWA Tomoki SATOH Masaki
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2019-017, (Released:2018-12-07)

In August 2016, a monsoon gyre persisted over the western North Pacific and was associated with the genesis of multiple devastating tropical cyclones. A series of hindcast simulations was performed using the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) to reproduce the temporal evolution of this monsoon gyre. The simulations initiated at dates during the mature stage of the monsoon gyre successfully reproduced its termination and the subsequent intensification of the Bonin high, while the simulations initiated before the formation and during the developing stage of the gyre failed to reproduce subsequent gyre evolution even at a short lead time. These experiments further suggest a possibility that the development of the Bonin high is related to the termination of the monsoon gyre. High predictability of the termination is likely due to the predictable mid-latitudinal signals that intensify the Bonin high.
著者
ITO Rui AOYAGI Toshinori HORI Naoto OH'IZUMI Mitsuo KAWASE Hiroaki DAIRAKU Koji SEINO Naoko SASAKI Hidetaka
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-053, (Released:2018-08-24)

Accurate simulation of urban snow accumulation/melting processes is important to provide reliable information about climate change in snowy urban areas. The Japan Meteorological Agency operates a square prism urban canopy (SPUC) model within their regional model to simulate urban atmosphere. However, presently, this model takes no account of snow processes. Therefore, in this study, we enhanced the SPUC by introducing a snowpack scheme, and the simulated snow over Japanese urban areas was assessed by comparing the snow depths from the enhanced SPUC and from a simple biosphere (iSiB) model with the observations. Snowpack schemes based on two approaches were implemented. The diagnostic approach (sSPUCdgn) uses empirical factors for snow temperature and melting/freezing amounts and the Penman equation for heat fluxes, whereas the prognostic approach (sSPUCprg) calculates snow temperatures using heat fluxes estimated from bulk equations. Both snowpack schemes enabled the model to accurately reproduce the seasonal variations and peaks in snow depth, but it is necessary to use sSPUCprg if we wish to consider the physical processes in the snow layer. Compared with iSiB, sSPUCprg resulted in a good performance for the seasonal variations in snow depth, and the error fell to 20 %. While iSiB overestimated the snow depth, a cold bias of over 1°C appeared in the daily mean temperature, which can be attributed to excessive decreases in the snow surface temperature. sSPUCprg reduces the bias by a different calculation method for the snow surface temperature and by the inclusion of heated building walls without snow; consequently, the simulated snow depth is improved. sSPUCprg generated a relationship between the seasonal variations in snowfall and snow depth close to the observed relationship, with the correlation coefficient getting large. Therefore, the simulation accuracy of snowfall becomes more crucial for simulating the surface snow processes precisely by the enhanced SPUC.
著者
Akiyoshi WADA Ryo OYAMA
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96, no.6, pp.489-509, 2018 (Released:2018-11-22)
参考文献数
52
被引用文献数
1

Typhoon Lionrock (2016) made landfall in the Pacific side of northern Japan. One of the intriguing events was consecutive deep convections (convective bursts, CBs) occurred before making landfall on 31 August. Lionrock paused the decay of the intensity of the storm, although sea surface cooling (SSC) was induced distinctly by Lionrock along the track. To examine the influence of CBs on changes in storm intensity during the decay phase, numerical simulations were conducted with a 3 km mesh coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model. The coupled model successfully simulated the occurrence of CBs north of the near-surface-convergence area, which was formed by the confluent of the storm's tangential winds with near-surface frictional spiral inflow from the surrounding region where the significant wave height was high. Simultaneously, the relatively fast translation and asymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) structure were maintained. Lower tropospheric horizontal moisture fluxes have enhanced around the convergence area, although SSC resulted in reduction of the air-sea latent heat fluxes within the storm's inner core. Local occurrences of upward moisture fluxes associated with CBs increased the mid-to-upper tropospheric condensational heating on the upstream side. This caused local increase in lower-tropospheric pressure gradient on the upstream side. This was favorable for pausing the decay of the simulated storm intensity even during the decay phase. Sensitivity experiments regarding the execution time of the coupled model showed that the vertical moisture fluxes and number of CBs could increase around the surface frictional convergence area ahead of the storm when the coupled model was not used. This suggests that the storm in mid-latitude could locally increase the maximum surface wind speed under favorable oceanic conditions. The number and distribution of CBs are indeed sensitive to oceanic conditions and are considered to affect the storm-track simulation and maximum surface wind speeds.
著者
Munehiko Yamaguchi Hiromi Owada Udai Shimada Masahiro Sawada Takeshi Iriguchi Kate D. Musgrave Mark DeMaria
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.138-143, 2018 (Released:2018-10-06)
参考文献数
22
被引用文献数
1

This study investigates prediction of TC intensity in the western North Pacific basin using a statistical-dynamical model called the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), with data sources in operations at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) such as the JMA/Global Spectral Model forecast fields. In addition to predicting the change in the maximum wind (Vmax) as in the original SHIPS technique, another version of SHIPS for predicting the change in the minimum sea-level pressure (Pmin) has been developed. With 13 years of training samples, a total of 26 predictors were selected from among 52 through stepwise regression. Based on three years of independent samples, the root mean square errors of both Vmax and Pmin by the 26-predictor SHIPS model were found to be much smaller than those of the JMA/GSM and a simple climatology and persistence intensity model, which JMA official intensity forecasts are currently mainly based on. The prediction accuracy was not sensitive to the number of predictors as long as the leading predictors were included. Benefits of operationalizing SHIPS include a reduction in the errors of the JMA official intensity forecasts and an extension of their forecast length beyond the current 3 days (e.g., 5 days).
著者
YUMIMOTO Keiya TANAKA Taichu Y. YOSHIDA Mayumi KIKUCHI Maki NAGAO Takashi M. MURAKAMI Hiroshi MAKI Takashi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-035, (Released:2018-04-08)
被引用文献数
2

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) launched a next-generation geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS), Himawari-8, on October 7, 2014 and began its operation on July 7, 2015. The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard Himawari-8 has 16 observational bands that enable the retrieval of full-disk maps of aerosol optical properties (AOPs), including aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and the Ångström exponent (AE) with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, we combined an aerosol transport model with the Himawari-8 AOT using the data assimilation method, and performed aerosol assimilation and forecasting experiments on smoke from an intensive wildfire that occurred over Siberia between May 15 and 18, 2016. To effectively utilize the high observational frequency of Himawari-8, we assimilated 1-h merged AOTs generated through the combination of six AOT snapshots taken over 10-min intervals, three times per day. The heavy smoke originating from the wildfire was transported eastward behind a low-pressure trough, and covered northern Japan from May 19 to 20. The southern part of the smoke plume then traveled westward, in a clockwise flow associated with high pressure. The forecast without assimilation reproduced the transport of the smoke to northern Japan; however, it underestimated AOT and the extinction coefficient compared with observed values, mainly due to errors in the emission inventory. Data assimilation with the Himawari-8 AOT compensated for the underestimation and successfully forecasted the unique C-shaped distribution of the smoke. In particular, the assimilation of the Himawari-8 AOT during May 18 greatly improved the forecast of the southern part of the smoke flow. Our results indicate that the inheritance of assimilation cycles and the assimilation of more recent observations led to better forecasting in this case of a continental smoke outflow.
著者
Keiichi ISHIOKA
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.96, no.2, pp.241-249, 2018 (Released:2018-03-27)
参考文献数
18

A new recurrence formula to calculate the associated Legendre functions is proposed for efficient computation of the spherical harmonic transform. This new recurrence formula makes the best use of the fused multiply–add (FMA) operations implemented in modern computers. The computational speeds in calculating the spherical harmonic transform are compared between a numerical code in which the new recurrence formula is implemented and another code using the traditional recurrence formula. This comparison shows that implementation of the new recurrence formula contributes to a faster transform. Furthermore, a scheme to maintain the accuracy of the transform, even when the truncation wavenumber is huge, is also explained.
著者
Tetsuya Takemi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.ii-iii, 2018 (Released:2018-01-25)
参考文献数
2

The Editorial Committee of Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) gives The SOLA Award to outstanding paper(s) published each year. I am pleased to announce that The SOLA Award in 2017 is going to be presented to the paper by Dr. Hiroaki Miura, entitled with “Coupling the hexagonal B1-grid and B2-grid to avoid computational mode problem of the hexagonal ZM-grid” (Miura 2017), and to the paper by Dr. Daisuke Goto et al., entitled with “Vertical profiles and temporal variations of greenhouse gases in the stratosphere over Syowa Station, Antarctica” (Goto et al. 2017).
著者
Wenkai Li Shuzhen Hu Zongmei Pan Xiaoyun Su Xinyue Luo Yijuan Wang
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.15, pp.47-51, 2019 (Released:2019-02-28)
参考文献数
45

The apparent temperature (APT), or human-perceived temperature, is commonly defined as a function of the surface air temperature (SAT), vapour pressure (or humidity) and wind speed. This paper demonstrates that the APT over China, as revealed by daily station-observed data, has generally increased faster than the SAT during summertime in the past 50 years (1968-2017). The rate of increase in APT was significantly faster than that of SAT in 60.1% of stations, and the difference between the average China-wide APT and SAT was 0.11°C decade−1. This phenomenon is occurring nationwide, but it is more intense over western, north-eastern and eastern coastal China. The more rapid increasing trend in APT indicates that human beings actually experience surplus heat stress under a certain change in SAT, and the increased SAT explains 67.0% of the average APT warming for the country, contributing to the change in the base APT. Apart from the increasing SAT, a decrease in surface wind speed and an increase in surface vapour pressure have also been observed, contributing to 21.6% of the increase in APT and explaining the remaining 11.4%, respectively.
著者
VITANOVA Lidia Lazarova KUSAKA Hiroyuki DOAN Van Quang NISHI Akifumi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2019-013, (Released:2018-11-16)

This study investigates the impact of urbanization on surface air temperature and the urban heat island (UHI) for Sendai City. We estimate the impacts of the urbaniza-tion during the 150-year period by comparing the 1850s to the 2000s case. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 1-km horizontal resolution and three land-use datasets, one for potential natural vegetation (PNV) data, the other two for realistic land-use data (the 1850s and 2000s). Results from the control simulation (2000s land-use case) are firstly verified against observations. The results show that the WRF model reasonably well reproduces the diurnal variation of the observed surface air temperatures in the 2000s land-use case at six stations in Miyagi prefecture. The model mean biases range from −0.29 to −1.18°C in August (10-year average) and from −0.44 to −1.50°C in February (10-year average). Secondly, the impacts of urbanization on the surface air temperature distribution in and around Sendai City are evaluated. In the 1850s land-use case, the very small urban area of Sendai City results in a negligible UHI. This case gives nearly the same surface air temperatures as experiments using the PNV. Comparing the simulated monthly mean surface air temperatures in the central part of Sendai City between the 1850s and 2000s land-use cases, we find that the monthly mean temperature for February in the 2000s is 1.40°C higher than that in the 1850s, whereas that for August is 1.30°C. Similarly, we find considerable nocturnal (1800–0500 JST) average surface air temperature increases of 2.20°C in February and 2.00°C in August.
著者
Truong Van Thinh Phan Cao Duong Kenlo Nishida Nasahara Takeo Tadono
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.15, pp.28-31, 2019 (Released:2019-02-11)
参考文献数
23

A land use/land cover map is an important input for different applications. However, the accuracy of land cover maps remains a great uncertainty and mapping accuracy assessment is not well-documented. The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between overall accuracy and the number of classification classes by conducting a literature review of land cover/land use studies. The results revealed a weak negative correlation between the map's accuracy and the number of classes. The paper suggests a decrease of 0.77% map's overall accuracy with respect to the increase of 1 land cover class. The average overall accuracy produced by 05 sensor types does not show the big difference. In addition, high spatial resolution sensor such as Airborne might not be always advantageous for producing high overall accuracy map since its accuracy depends on several factors including the number of land cover classes.
著者
Takumi Honda Shohei Takino Takemasa Miyoshi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.15, pp.7-11, 2019 (Released:2019-01-19)
参考文献数
23

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated heavy precipitation have large impacts in Japan. This study aims to find how data assimilation (DA) of every-10-minute all-sky Himawari-8 radiances could improve the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for TC cases. As the first step, this study performs a single case study of Typhoon Malakas (2016) using a regional atmospheric model from the Scalable Computing for Advanced Library and Environment (SCALE) coupled with the local ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). The results show that the all-sky Himawari-8 radiance DA at 6-km resolution improves the representation of Malakas and may provide more accurate deterministic and probabilistic precipitation forecasts if the horizontal localization scale is chosen appropriately.
著者
Chia Rui Ong Hiroaki Miura
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.170-173, 2018 (Released:2018-11-13)
参考文献数
17

Empirical formulae of the terminal velocity and shape of a water droplet in microphysics parametrizations are derived from experiments or theoretical works and they are only verified under room temperature and standard atmospheric pressure. A two-phase direct numerical simulation model can be a strong tool to improve those empirical formulae under general conditions. Recently, the global B-spline fitting has been applied and its smooth one dimensional (1D) surface reconstruction of water droplets has enabled stable simulations of falling two dimensional (2D) droplets by the immersed boundary method (IBM). However, an extension of the global reconstruction from 1D to 2D is highly complex and is almost impossible to use in a model. To overcome this limitation, an iterative algorithm is proposed for a local smooth surface reconstruction in this work. One significant advantage is its straightforward extension to 2D surfaces. To test the new method, simulations of an axisymmetric free-oscillating water droplet are compared between the global and local surface reconstructions. A further simulation of a rising air bubble is performed to examine the robustness of the new algorithm for the highly distorted interface. This new method opens a pathway to three dimensional (3D) water droplet simulations by the IBM.
著者
Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque Hitoshi Irie Alessandro Damiani Prajjwal Rawat Manish Naja
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.14, pp.159-164, 2018 (Released:2018-11-09)
参考文献数
56
被引用文献数
1

Since January 2017 continuous multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) observations have been performed for the first time at Pantnagar (29.03°N, 79.47°E), a semi-urban site located in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region in India. Here we report the formaldehyde (HCHO), glyoxal (CHOCHO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations for the lowest layer (0-1 km) of the retrieved vertical profiles. The ratio of CHOCHO to HCHO concentrations (RGF), an important tracer indicative of changes in volatile organic compound emissions was estimated. During spring and autumn enhanced concentrations of HCHO and CHOCHO were observed under the influence of biomass burning. The mean RGF for the whole observation period (January–November) in Pantnagar was estimated to be 0.029 ± 0.006. Comparing with similar MAX-DOAS observations in central Thailand and reported literature values, we found that the RGF tends to be < ∼0.04 under the influence of biomass burning and/or anthropogenic emissions.
著者
Masayoshi Ishii Yoshikazu Fukuda Shoji Hirahara Soichiro Yasui Toru Suzuki Kanako Sato
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.13, pp.163-167, 2017 (Released:2017-09-14)
参考文献数
31
被引用文献数
3

The simplest global mapping method and dense data coverage for the global oceans by the latest observation network ensure an estimate of global ocean heat content (OHC) within a satisfactory uncertainty for the last 60 years. The observational database conditionally presented a level high enough for practical use for the global OHC estimation when applying bias corrections of expendable bathythermograph, assuming that the other severe observational biases are not included in the database. Uncertainties in annual global mean temperatures averaged vertically from the surface to 1,500 m are within 0.01 K for the period from 1955 onward, when only sampling errors are taken into account. Those in annual mean global OHC of an improved objective analysis for 0-1,500 m depth is 16ZJ on average throughout the period. Compared to previous studies, the new objective analysis provides a higher estimation of the global 0-1,500 m OHC trend for a longer period from 1955 to 2015, which is an increase of 350 ± 57ZJ with a 95% confidence interval.