著者

Ryo Onishi Daisuke Sugiyama Keigo Matsuda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15, pp.178-182, 2019 (Released:2019-09-05)

参考文献数

21

被引用文献数

29

---

We propose a super-resolution (SR) simulation system that consists of a physics-based meteorological simulation and an SR method based on a deep convolutional neural network (CNN). The CNN is trained using pairs of high-resolution (HR) and low-resolution (LR) images created from meteorological simulation results for different resolutions so that it can map LR simulation images to HR ones. The proposed SR simulation system, which performs LR simulations, can provide HR prediction results in much shorter operating cycles than those required for corresponding HR simulation prediction system. We apply the SR simulation system to urban micrometeorology, which is strongly affected by buildings and human activity. Urban micrometeorology simulations that need to resolve urban buildings are computationally costly and thus cannot be used for operational real-time predictions even when run on supercomputers. We performed HR micrometeorology simulations on a supercomputer to obtain datasets for training the CNN in the SR method. It is shown that the proposed SR method can be used with a spatial scaling factor of 4 and that it outperforms conventional interpolation methods by a large margin. It is also shown that the proposed SR simulation system has the potential to be used for operational urban micrometeorology predictions.

著者

YUKIMOTO Seiji KAWAI Hideaki KOSHIRO Tsuyoshi OSHIMA Naga YOSHIDA Kohei URAKAWA Shogo TSUJINO Hiroyuki DEUSHI Makoto TANAKA Taichu HOSAKA Masahiro YABU Shokichi YOSHIMURA Hiromasa SHINDO Eiki MIZUTA Ryo OBATA Atsushi ADACHI Yukimasa ISHII Masayoshi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-051, (Released:2019-06-18)

被引用文献数

441

---

The new Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) has been developed based on previous models, MRI-CGCM3 and MRI-ESM1, which participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These models underwent numerous improvements meant for highly accurate climate reproducibility. This paper describes model formulation updates and evaluates basic performance of its physical components. The new model has nominal horizontal resolutions of 100 km for atmosphere and ocean components, similar to the previous models. The atmospheric vertical resolution is 80 layers which is enhanced from 48 layers of its predecessor. Accumulation of various improvements concerning clouds, such as a new stratocumulus cloud scheme, led to remarkable reduction in errors in shortwave, longwave, and net radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The resulting errors are sufficiently small compared with those in the CMIP5 models. The improved radiation distribution brings the accurate meridional heat transport required for the ocean and contributes to a reduced surface air temperature (SAT) bias. MRI-ESM2.0 displays realistic reproduction of both mean climate and interannual variability. For instance, the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation can now be realistically expressed through the enhanced vertical resolution and introduction of non-orographic gravity wave drag parameterization. For the historical experiment, MRI-ESM2.0 reasonably reproduces global SAT change for recent decades; however, cooling in the 1950s through the 1960s and warming afterward are overestimated compared with observations. MRI-ESM2.0 has been improved in many aspects over the previous models, MRI-CGCM3/MRI-ESM1, and is expected to demonstrate superior performance in many experiments planned for CMIP6.

著者

Akifumi Nishi Hiroyuki Kusaka Lidia Lazarova Vitanova Yuma Imai

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15, pp.132-136, 2019 (Released:2019-06-20)

参考文献数

27

被引用文献数

5

---

We quantitatively evaluated the contributions of foehn winds and the urban heat island (UHI) effect to an extreme high-temperature nocturnal event at Niigata city on 23-24 August 2018. During this event, southeasterly winds blew continually across the Niigata Plain and temperatures on the plain were higher than those in the windward region of the mountain range. Back-trajectory analysis and numerical simulations with and without topography showed that the southeasterly winds were foehn winds that caused precipitation and latent heating on the windward slope of the mountain range. The foehn winds and UHI contributed about 2.8°C and 1.9°C, respectively, to the extreme high-temperature of 31.0°C at 2100 JST in Niigata city. The combined impact of the foehn winds and the UHI at Niigata was about 4.0°C during the night. The contribution of the foehn winds was greater at around midnight, whereas that of the UHI was greater during the early night.

著者

YOSHIDA Mayumi KIKUCHI Maki NAGAO Takashi M. MURAKAMI Hiroshi NOMAKI Tomoyuki HIGURASHI Akiko

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-039, (Released:2018-04-15)

被引用文献数

118

---

We develop a common retrieval algorithm of aerosol properties such as aerosol optical thickness, single-scattering albedo, and Ångström exponent for various satellite sensors over both land and ocean. The three main features of this algorithm are as follows: (1) automatic selection of the optimum channels for aerosol retrieval by introducing a weight for each channel to the object function, (2) setting common candidate aerosol models over land and ocean, and (3) preparation of lookup tables for every 1 nm in the range from 300 to 2500 nm of wavelength and weighting the radiance using the response function for each sensor. This method was applied to the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on board the Japan Meteorological Agency’s geostationary satellite Himawari-8, and the results depicted an approximately continuous estimate of aerosol optical thickness over land and ocean. Further, the aerosol optical thickness estimated using our algorithm was generally consistent with the products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Additionally, we applied our algorithm to MODIS on board the Aqua satellite and then compared the retrieval results to those that were obtained using AHI. The comparisons of the aerosol optical thickness retrieved from different sensors with different viewing angles on board the geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites suggest an underestimation of aerosol optical thickness at the backscattering direction (or overestimated in other directions). The retrieval of aerosol properties using a common algorithm allows us to identify a weakness in the algorithm, which includes the assumptions in the aerosol model (e.g. sphericity or size distiribution).

著者

Tomoro Yanase Tetsuya Takemi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.116-120, 2018 (Released:2018-08-21)

参考文献数

29

被引用文献数

4

---

This study investigates the representation of the diurnal variation of cumulus convection in radiative-convective equilibrium states in an area of 200 km by 200 km without large-scale forcing by using a non-hydrostatic model with sub-kilometer horizontal resolutions. The experiment with the horizontal resolution of 200 m successfully reproduced the diurnal variability of the trimodal characteristics of cumulus convection. We demonstrated that the horizontal resolution dependence largely affects the trimodal structure of clouds and the characteristics of precipitation and its diurnal variation. With the coarse resolution of 1600 m, a signature of convective aggregation appeared and the diurnal variation of convection was not clearly seen. We further examined the mechanisms for the diurnal variation of cumulus convection by focusing on the temporal and vertical variations of radiative and latent heating anomalies. The diurnal variability of the static stability caused by both radiative and latent heating plays a role in characterizing the diurnal variation of the cumulus convection.

著者

川端 康弘 山口 宗彦

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.98, no.4, pp.821-833, 2020 (Released:2020-08-25)

参考文献数

30

被引用文献数

2 3

---

台風進路予報における予報楕円の有効性を、マルチセンターアンサンブル手法を用いて調査した。使用した台風進路予報データは、2016~2018年の気象庁、欧州中期予報センター、米国環境予測センター、英国気象局の数値予報センターの全球アンサンブル予報である。これら4センターの全球アンサンブル予報によるマルチセンターアンサンブルは、初期値ごとに異なる予報の不確実性を、台風の進行方向に沿った成分とそれに直交する成分において、より適切に表現できることがわかった。予報円は進路予報誤差が等方的な分布であることを仮定しているが、予報楕円を導入することにより台風の移動方向あるいは移動速度のどちらに予報の不確実性が大きいか把握することができる。予報円と予報楕円の面積を比較したところ、予報楕円の面積は平均して3日先予報で16%、4日先で15%、5日先で24%減少することがわかった。予報楕円は台風の警戒領域を絞り込むことができ、防災対応・緩和策をより強化できる可能性がある。

著者

HIROCKAWA Yasutaka KATO Teruyuki TSUGUTI Hiroshige SEINO Naoko

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-043, (Released:2020-05-18)

被引用文献数

25

---

We propose a new procedure for the objective identification and classification of heavy rainfall areas (HRAs) to advance the understanding of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in Japan. The distributions of accumulated precipitation amounts are evaluated from the radar/raingauge-analyzed precipitation amounts and characteristic features of HRAs are examined. The HRAs extracted during the warm season (April–November) in 2009-2018 are classified into four types (e.g., linear-stationary, linear, stationary, and others) from their morphological features and temporal variations. HRAs are frequently distributed on the Pacific sides of eastern and western Japan; 80 % of HRAs appeared from June to September and 60 % of the HRAs were observed in association with stationary fronts and tropical cyclones. Approximately 80 % of those HRAs of the linear-stationary type corresponded to typical elongated and stagnated MCSs, as has been suggested in previous studies.

著者

Xinyue Wang Hironobu Iwabuchi Naoya Takahashi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15, pp.137-142, 2019 (Released:2019-06-27)

参考文献数

21

被引用文献数

1 2

---

Using several cloud properties retrieved from the Himawari-8 satellite, combined with the best track storm center information, the temporal-spatial features of tropical cyclone (TC) diurnal pulses in 2015 Super Typhoon Atsani (T1516) are coherently depicted. To demonstrate the radially outward transition processes of the diurnal pulses from one cloud type to another, we divided high clouds into three types: opaque high cloud (OHC), cirrostratus (Cs), and cirrus (Ci). Two alternatively appeared peaks in cloud top height (CTH) within the storm central area and their corresponding outward pulses are identified. The first pulse covers a 24-hour period, it starts at ∼0500-0700 local solar time (LST), with a gradual transition from OHC to Cs, then ends in Ci at around 0400 LST. The second pulse lasts for half a day and limited within 1000 km from the storm center. When the first CTH pulse ends in OHC, Cs, and Ci, their cloud fractional coverage and the outward expansion of large cloud optical thickness also reach maximum accordingly.

著者

MOGI Atsushi WATANABE Masahiro

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-025, (Released:2022-02-03)

---

Extremely hot days in Japan are known to persist for a week or more, and they are measured by the temperature anomaly at 850 hPa averaged over Japan derived from the JRA-55 reanalysis data, denoted as T850JP. Severe high-temperature anomalies are often accompanied by multiple teleconnection patterns that affect the weather in Japan, but their relative contribution to individual heat wave events has not yet been quantified. In this study, we examined the effects of three major teleconnection patterns, namely, the Pacific-Japan (PJ), circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and Siberian patterns, on T850JP in July and August from 1958-2019 using daily low-pass filtered anomalies with 8 days cutoff time-scale derived from the reanalysis. A linear regression analysis demonstrated that T850JP tended to show a large positive anomaly one or two days after the peak of these patterns. Based on this relationship, we reconstructed a daily T850JP time series using a multivariate statistical model wherein the parameters were estimated using regression analyses between T850JP and indices of the three teleconnection patterns. The reconstructed T850JP showed that the three teleconnection patterns together accounted for 50 % of the total variance of T850JP for extremely hot summers, to which each of the three teleconnection patterns were found to have a similar degree of contribution. The statistical model reproduces the interannual variability along with the long-term T850JP trend. The PJ pattern has the largest effect on the interannual variability of T850JP, probably due to the PJ teleconnection occurring over a longer timescale compared with the other two patterns. The reconstructed T850JP also displays a warming trend associated with an increasing trend in the CGT index, which may be a factor, along with the direct thermodynamic effects due to global warming, to explain the long-term increase in the heat wave frequency in Japan.

著者

IKEDA Takashi KUSAKA Hiroyuki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-067, (Released:2021-08-20)

被引用文献数

8

---

We developed fifty-five models for predicting the number of ambulance transport due to heatstroke (hereafter referred to as the number of patients with heatstroke) on the next day in Tokyo, using different combinations of eleven explanatory variables sets and five methods (three statistical models and two machine learning) for 10 years (2010-2019). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the number of heatstroke patients was minimal when the best model was developed by combining six explanatory variables (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, number of days since June 1, and the number of patients with heatstroke on the previous day) and the generalized additive model. The best model remarkably improved prediction by 52.1 % compared to a widely used model, which primarily utilizes temperature as an explanatory variable and the generalized linear model as a method. Further analysis investigating the contribution of the explanatory variables and method to the prediction showed that RMSE was reduced by 49.7 % using the above six explanatory variables compared to using the only temperature and by 14.6 % using the generalized additive model compared to using the generalized linear model.

著者

Yukie Moroda Kazuhisa Tsuboki Shinsuke Satoh Katsuhiro Nakagawa Tomoo Ushio Hiroshi Kikuchi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-018, (Released:2022-04-15)

被引用文献数

1

---

A rapid rise of the lightning activity center in the upper part of a cloud is called a lightning bubble (LB). It remains unclear how LBs occur in thunderstorm clouds. Recently, high-spatiotemporal resolution data obtained by a phased array weather radar enabled observation of temporal changes in the three-dimensional structure of precipitation cores in a precipitation cell. To understand the mechanism by which LBs occur, we examined the relationship between the time-evolution of precipitation cores and the flash initiation points.After a precipitation core developed in an isolated thundercloud, the top height of the core reached its highest altitude and then started to descend. Meanwhile, the echo tops above the core continued to rise, which is termed an upward reflectivity pulse (URP). Over an hour, nine URPs were successively observed in the thundercloud. The average tracking period of the URPs was 3.9 minutes. Flash initiation points appeared near the highest points of the URPs and continued to rise with time. These observational results suggest that URPs cause LBs by enhancing the electric field, via the separation of graupel and ice crystals near the highest points of ascending URPs.

著者

TOCHIMOTO Eigo YOKOTA Sho NIINO Hiroshi YANASE Wataru

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-007, (Released:2021-10-06)

被引用文献数

1

---

Ensemble forecasts with 101 members (including one ensemble mean) using ensemble Kalman filter analysis were performed to understand the atmospheric conditions favorable for the development of a meso-β-scale vortex (MBV) that caused shipwrecks as a result of sudden gusty winds in the southwestern part of the Sea of Japan on 1 September 2015. A composite analysis was performed to reveal differences in the structure of the MBV and atmospheric conditions around the MBV between the strongest eight (STRG) and weakest ten (WEAK) ensemble members, where two of the strongest ten members that developed the MBV much earlier than the other members were excluded from the analysis. The analysis shows that near-surface cyclonic horizontal shear to the northeast and the south of the MBV was stronger for STRG than for WEAK. In addition, larger low-level water vapor and its horizontal flux for STRG contribute to greater convective available potential energy to the southeast of the MBV, resulting in stronger convection around the MBV. The results of the composite analysis are also statistically supported by an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis. Differences in near-surface horizontal shear were closely related to the structure of the extratropical cyclone in which the MBV was embedded. Although the strength of the extratropical cyclone for STRG was comparable with that for WEAK, the cyclonic horizontal shear of winds in the northeastern quadrant of the extratropical cyclone was greater for STRG than for WEAK.

著者

Kei Kawai Hitoshi Matsui Reiji Kimura Masato Shinoda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.239-245, 2021 (Released:2021-12-18)

参考文献数

41

被引用文献数

4

---

The emission of Asian dust in arid regions of East Asia is controlled by many land surface parameters such as snow cover, soil moisture, and vegetation. In climate models, these factors are represented by the threshold friction velocity u*t, but its treatment has large uncertainties. Here we show that the treatment of u*t is important for estimating the emissions, transport, and climate impacts of Asian dust. Our global aerosol model simulates dust event frequencies that better agree with observations in East Asia when u*t over a smooth surface is changed from the default value of 0.23 m s−1 to an observation-based value of 0.40 m s−1. Also, seasonal Asian dust emissions become more variable, increasing by 31% in spring and decreasing by 46% in summer and fall, and the annual amounts of Asian dust transported and deposited over the North Pacific (Arctic) increase by 43% and 49% (130% and 73%), respectively. Our results demonstrate that better representation of u*t in climate models is necessary to improve estimates of the emissions and transport of Asian dust and better understand its roles in the Earth system, such as its interactions with radiation, clouds, snow/ice albedo, and land and ocean biogeochemistry.

著者

Yasutaka Hirockawa Teruyuki Kato

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-003, (Released:2021-12-28)

被引用文献数

4

---

We propose a new application method in which radar/raingauge-analyzed precipitation amounts (RAP) produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency are spatially converted into 5km-resolution data, in addition to a three-hourly accumulation procedure, in order to statistically analyze localized heavy rainfall areas (HRAs) for a long period. A long-term trend and homogeneity in the appearance frequency of RAP with 5km-resolution converted by several methods, including the conventional method, are statistically evaluated in comparison with rain-gauge observations. The results indicate that the following application method is the most suitable to represent long-term variations in the appearance frequency of HRAs; (1) the converted value of RAP from 1 km to 5 km resolution is set to the 90th percentile value in 30 segments with 1km-resolution included in a grid with 5km-resolution, and (2) this spatial conversion is conducted after accumulating original RAP with 1km-resolution for three hours. Statistical analyses were performed for the appearance frequency of HRAs extracted from 5km-resolution RAP that were produced by the new application method, which indicates that the number of HRAs of the linear-stationary type could be increased without compromising the characteristics of HRAs extracted by the conventional method.

著者

Kazuya Yamazaki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.224-227, 2021 (Released:2021-12-16)

参考文献数

11

---

A novel lightweight and high-accuracy variant of the image pan-sharpening technique is designed for Himawari-8 multispectral images. This method, named Additive Template Sharpening, injects higher-wavenumber components of the highest-resolution Band 3 images into lower-resolution visible or shortwave infrared images, thereby providing multispectral high-resolution images. This injection is realized by adding inter-band differential field to the high-resolution band, making use of the specific pixel arrangement of the Himawari-8 imager for simple and accurate coordinate transformations. Both subjective inspection of RGB composite images and objective evaluation of the upsampling indicate that Additive Template Sharpening exhibits higher accuracy than existing methods for Bands 1-6 of Himawari-8. This technique not only enables operational forecasters to diagnose atmospheric conditions in more details using higher-resolution RGB composites, but also provides higher-quality true-color imagery for the public.

著者

Kei Kawai Hitoshi Matsui Reiji Kimura Masato Shinoda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-042, (Released:2021-11-02)

被引用文献数

4

---

The emission of Asian dust in arid regions of East Asia is controlled by many land surface parameters such as snow cover, soil moisture, and vegetation. In climate models, these factors are represented by the threshold friction velocity u*t, but its treatment has large uncertainties. Here we show that the treatment of u*t is important for estimating the emissions, transport, and climate impacts of Asian dust. Our global aerosol model simulates dust event frequencies that better agree with observations in East Asia when u*t over a smooth surface is changed from the default value of 0.23 m s−1 to an observation-based value of 0.40 m s−1. Also, seasonal Asian dust emissions become more variable, increasing by 31% in spring and decreasing by 46% in summer and fall, and the annual amounts of Asian dust transported and deposited over the North Pacific (Arctic) increase by 43% and 49% (130% and 73%), respectively. Our results demonstrate that better representation of u*t in climate models is necessary to improve estimates of the emissions and transport of Asian dust and better understand its roles in the Earth system, such as its interactions with radiation, clouds, snow/ice albedo, and land and ocean biogeochemistry.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-029, (Released:2021-08-20)

被引用文献数

4

---

This study presents a possible large-scale factor of tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific, which is triggered by Rossby wave breaking to the east of Japan. More than half of the wave breaking cases is accompanied by the tropical cyclogenesis. Results from a composite analysis for the wave breaking cases indicate that the genesis and development of tropical cyclones are dominant over the southwest quadrant of the wave breaking center, where an intrusion of the upper-level potential vorticity caused by the wave breaking and the consequent enhanced convection are seen. The number of tropical cyclones in the wave breaking cases exponentially increases in time during the developing stage of the wave breaking. The results of composite analysis further indicate that lower-level strong wind convergence and the associated enhanced convection, which are resulting from the wave breaking, is favorable conditions for the tropical cyclogenesis. An enhanced monsoon trough accompanied by the Pacific–Japan pattern resulting from the enhanced convection can regulate tracks of the tropical cyclones. These results show that the Rossby wave breaking can trigger the tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific, through the southwestward intrusion of the upper-level potential vorticity and the consequent enhanced convection.

著者

Masaya Kuramochi Hiroaki Ueda Chiaki Kobayashi Youichi Kamae Koutarou Takaya

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.17B-001, (Released:2021-08-05)

被引用文献数

7

---

The anomalous warm winter from December 2019 to February 2020 over East Asia, particularly the anticyclonic anomaly around Japan, was examined from the teleconnection perspective anchored by a warmed Indian Ocean and the El Niño Modoki. In the upper troposphere, high–low–high wave patterns progressing from the Arabian Sea toward Japan via the southern region of China, coupled with the wave-activity flux diagnosis, implicate the propagation of stationary Rossby waves caused by enhanced convection in the western Indian Ocean and suppressed convection around the Maritime Continent. These anomalous convective activities could be responsible for the northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the ensuing warm conditions over East Asia. The atmospheric response to the observed diabatic heating by means of the linear baroclinic model well reproduced the observations. Moreover, sensitivity experiments of the atmospheric general circulation model to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially in the warmed western Indian and central Pacific oceans, can help understand the anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent sector and subsequently weakened convection. The warmer SST observed around the Maritime Continent alone reproduces the enhancement of rainfall and subsequent cold anomalies around Japan, suggesting the importance of trans-basin interaction for teleconnection towards East Asia.

著者

Pin-Ying Wu Tetsuya Takemi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-024, (Released:2021-06-23)

被引用文献数

1

---

Identical twin experiments with and without topography are conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in an idealized framework to investigate the impact of topography on the initial error growth associated with moist convection. A topography is set as a single Gaussian shape mountain with a peak height of about 1000 m. Both experiments show clear diurnal cycles, while moist convection develops earlier and organizes to a larger size in the experiment with topography. To evaluate the initial error growth, a metric referred to as moist difference total energy (MDTE) is proposed to represent the differences between the two simulations in twin experiments. The horizontal spatial distribution, temporal evolution, and horizontal wavenumber space of the MDTE suggest that the error growth is greatly dominated by the different features of convection development between the two experiments. The analysis based on individual cloud areas shows that the convective clouds developing over the mountain have smaller MDTE at the early stage of development.

著者

Long Trinh-Tuan Jun Matsumoto Fredolin T. Tangang Liew Juneng Faye Cruz Gemma Narisma Jerasorn Santisirisomboon Tan Phan-Van Dodo Gunawan Edvin Aldrian Thanh Ngo-Duc

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15, pp.1-6, 2019 (Released:2019-01-19)

参考文献数

38

被引用文献数

7 27

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The Quantile Mapping (QM) bias correction (BC) technique was applied for the first time to address biases in the simulated precipitation over Vietnam from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) driven by five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) products. The QM process was implemented for the period 1986-2005, and subsequently applied to the mid-future period 2046-2065 under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Comparison with the original model outputs during the independent validation period shows a large bias reduction from 45% to 3% over Vietnam and significant improvements in representing precipitation indices (PI) after applying the QM technique. Moreover, the ensemble average of the BC products generally performed better than an individual BC member in capturing the spatial distribution of the PIs. A drier condition with a longer rainfall break, and shorter consecutive rainfall events are anticipated over Northern and Central Vietnam during their respective wet seasons in the mid-future. Furthermore, this study showed that the QM method minimally modified the future changes in PIs over most of Vietnam; thus, these corrected projections could be used in climate impacts and adaptation studies.