著者

Ahoro ADACHI Takahisa KOBAYASHI Hiroshi YAMAUCHI

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.93, no.3, pp.359-388, 2015 (Released:2015-07-10)

参考文献数

78

被引用文献数

1 7

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A method for estimating three parameters of a gamma raindrop size distribution (DSD) model and the rainfall rate from polarimetric radar at attenuating frequency was developed. The algorithm was developed based on the self-consistency principle but was expanded to consider the attenuation effect by describing the interrelation between polarimetric measurements along the range profile. The proposed method does not require any assumptions of relation among DSD parameters or simplifications of equations that describe the relation between the axis ratio and diameter of raindrops, which have been used in previous studies. Moreover, the proposed algorithm needs no external reference data such as two-dimensional video disdrometer measurements for attenuation corrections because it retrieves the co-polar and differential specific attenuation from the interrelation among the polarimetric measurements. The performance of this algorithm was evaluated by comparison with optical disdrometers and a weighing precipitation gauge. The evaluation of the algorithm showed that the retrieved three DSD parameters of raindrops, reflectivity, and differential reflectivity from actual C-band polarimetric radar data have fairly good agreement with those obtained by surface measurements. Moreover, rainfall rates retrieved using this algorithm have comparable precision with those estimated from the specific differential phase, and outperform those estimated through the so-called Z-R relation, particularly during heavy rainfall. Furthermore, the effects of raindrop temperature and shape parameter on the retrieval of the rainfall rate were examined. The results show that for radar operating at C-band, a raindrop temperature error of 10°C may be negligible in rainfall rate estimations, whereas a shape parameter error of 2 may increase the error of the rainfall rate estimation by 10 %.

著者

Prabir K. PATRA Edward J. DLUGOKENCKY James W. ELKINS Geoff S. DUTTON 遠嶋 康徳 笹川 基樹 伊藤 昭彦 Ray F. WEISS Manfredi MANIZZA Paul B. KRUMMEL Ronald G. PRINN Simon O'DOHERTY Daniele BIANCHI Cynthia NEVISON Efisio SOLAZZO Haeyoung LEE Sangwon JOO Eric A. KORT Suman MAITY 滝川 雅之

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.100, no.2, pp.361-386, 2022 (Released:2022-04-13)

参考文献数

65

被引用文献数

8

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大気中の一酸化二窒素(N2O)は地球温暖化および成層圏オゾン減少に影響を及ぼしており、発生源ごとの放出量推定の精緻化は気候変動の政策決定において非常に重要である。本研究ではまず大気大循環モデルMIROC4を基にした化学輸送モデル(ACTM)を用いたコントロール実験を行い、大気中N2O濃度の時空間変動について現場観測等を用いた検証を行なった。本計算に際しては各種起源(土壌起源、農業起源、その他人為起源、海洋起源)について複数のインベントリを用い、合計5種類の組み合わせで計算を行なった。その結果、N2Oの大気中寿命は年々変動の影響を含め、127.6±4.0年と推定された。次に、世界各地の42地点における1997年から2019年にかけての観測結果を用いて、世界を84分割した各地域におけるN2O放出量についてベイズ手法を用いた逆解法による推定を行なった。その結果、全球の陸域および海洋起源それぞれの放出量は2000年代には12.99±0.22 および 2.74±0.27 TgN yr-1、2010年代は14.30±0.20および 2.91±0.27 TgN yr-1と推定された。 地域別に見ると、南極海周辺での海洋起源放出量について既存インベントリが過大評価傾向にあることがわかった。一方熱帯域および中高緯度域の地表からの放出量についてはそれぞれ過少および過大評価傾向にあったと考えられ、別の観測の結果とも整合的であった。また全球の陸域および海洋起源放出量の時間変動についてはエルニーニョ・南方振動と強い相関が見られた。地域ごとの陸域起源放出量の2000年代と2010年代の間の変化量について調べたところ、北アメリカ、中央および熱帯アメリカおよび中央アフリカ、南、東および東南アジアで増加傾向が見られた。一方ヨーロッパでは減少する傾向が見られたが、これは化学工業に起因すると推定された。また15地域中3地域(東アジア、北アメリカおよび中央アフリカ)および南極海において、季節変化について今後の改良が必要なことが示唆された。陸域生態系モデル(VISIT)による推定放出量を用いた場合、観測から推定される1978年以降の増加速度をよく再現しているが、一方で窒素肥料の施肥から大気への放出にかかる変換時定数については改めて検討する必要があることが示唆された。

著者

HSU Wei-Ching KIKUCHI Kazuyoshi ANNAMALAI H. RICHARDS Kelvin J.

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-020, (Released:2021-12-21)

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Previous studies suggest the nature of the air-sea interaction of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) can strongly influence our understanding and simulation of the ISO characteristics. In this study we assess the representation of the surface components in three of the most up-to-date reanalyses, including ERA5, ERA-interim (ERAi), and JRA55, to identify which reanalysis dataset is more suitable for investigating air-sea interaction associated with the ISO, and to quantify the intraseasonal biases of related variables for simulating the ocean responses. All three reanalyses well capture the ISO convective characteristics in terms of the spatial patterns and the propagation features, although the amplitude of the outgoing longwave radiation is severely underestimated (by ∼40 to 60 %, depending on region and season) in JRA55. Out of the two ERA reanalysis datasets, our results indicate the ERA5 may serve as a better ocean forcing dataset, as the ERAi largely underestimates the magnitudes of the ISO-related precipitation and 10-meter winds (of summer ISO, or BSISO) while overestimates the latent heat flux (of winter ISO, or MJO). JRA55, while having comparable amplitude biases to ERA5 in variables except precipitation, generally shows larger phase biases than the two ERA renalyses.

著者

TAO Wei-Kuo LANG Stephen IGUCHI Takamichi SONG Yi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-015, (Released:2021-12-13)

被引用文献数

4

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The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm has been used to retrieve latent heating (LH) associated with clouds and cloud systems in support of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The CSH algorithm requires the use of a cloud-resolving model (CRM) to simulate LH profiles to build look-up tables. This paper describes the current V6 CSH and its differences/similarities versus the previous V5 CSH. Long-term CRM simulations are conducted to identify the impact of CRM resolution and the convective-stratiform separation method on LH structure/profiles. The TRMM and GPM Combined radar-radiometer algorithm derived surface rain rates and their associated precipitation properties are the input to the CSH algorithm. CSH V6 retrieved regional LH profiles in the tropics and subtropics display the classic signatures of heating in the convective region and heating over cooling in the stratiform region. Since there is no direct measurement of LH structure, the performance of the CSH V6 algorithm is examined by comparing its vertically-integrated heating (or equivalent surface rain rate) against the surface rain rate derived from the TRMM/GPM Combined algorithm. The CSH three-month and zonal mean equivalent surface rain rates are in good agreement with the Combined rain rates over the ITCZ region; the agreement is best over ocean. CSH three-month and zonal mean equivalent surface rain rates are larger than the Combined rain rates over land in both the tropics and sub-tropics. CSH three-month mean equivalent surface rain rates also have local differences with the Combined rain rates that can be smoothed by area averaging to larger horizontal resolutions (from the CSH standard grid of 0.25° × 0.25° to 0.5° × 0.5° or 1.0° × 1.0°). CSH equivalent surface rain rates have more light rain rates but less larger rates compared to the GPM Combined surface rain rates.

著者

FUDEYASU Hironori SHIMADA Udai OIKAWA Yoshinori EITO Hisaki WADA Akiyoshi YOSHIDA Ryuji HORINOUCHI Takeshi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-031, (Released:2022-04-21)

被引用文献数

4

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This study investigated the atmospheric and oceanic contributions to the genesis of Typhoon Faxai in 2019. Our statistical analysis using the tropical cyclone genesis score (TGS) attributed the tropical disturbance that developed into Faxai (Pre-Faxai) to easterly waves (EWs). The EW score evaluated by a grid version of the TGS (Grid-EW) averaged around the occurrence of Pre-Faxai was approximately twice as large as the climatological mean; it was the second largest value in the past 38 years. The Pre-Faxai area with high Grid-EW scores could be traced back to the eastern North Pacific (ENP) around August 25, 2019. The lower-troposphere environment characterized by high Grid-EW scores was favorable for vortex formation because it provided a containment area for moisture entrained by the developing circulation or lofted by the deep convection therein. The Pre-Faxai area with high Grid-EW scores moved westward because of the background easterly flow over the ENP, then entered the western North Pacific (WNP). The Typhoon Intensity Forecast Scheme (TIFS) showed that the important environments for its genesis were ocean conditions and the vertical wind shear. The oceanic conditions contributed to the development of Pre-Faxai as it traveled over the WNP. The enhancement of vertical wind shear and subsequent suppression of the development of Pre-Faxai were caused by the lower-troposphere easterly winds associated with high EW scores; they were also caused by upper-troposphere westerly winds associated with an upper cold low northwest of Pre-Faxai. When the vertical shear decreased with weakening of the upper cold low, Pre-Faxai reached tropical storm intensity on September 4. Therefore, TGS and TIFS detected Pre-Faxai 10 days before the typhoon arose, an indication that monitoring environmental factors such as EW and vertical wind shear are important for disaster prevention.

著者

OSE Tomoaki ENDO Hirokazu TAKAYA Yuhei MAEDA Shuhei NAKAEGAWA Toshiyuki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-032, (Released:2022-04-14)

被引用文献数

3

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Robust and uncertain sea-level pressure patterns over summertime East Asia in the future global warming projections and their causes are studied by applying the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the multi-model experiments in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and focusing common features with the previous CMIP5 analysis. The ensemble average and the first to third EOF modes associated with future pressure changes are similar to the corresponding ones from CMIP5. The first and second modes represent strengthened and weakened high pressure systems in subtropical and northern East Asia, respectively. The third mode is the reverse anomaly of the climatological pressure pattern over summertime East Asia, indicating weakened southerly monsoon winds. The second mode pattern makes positive contributions to almost all the CMIP6 future pressure changes, representing a robust future projection pattern. The robust mode is the result of surface warming over the northern continents and neighboring seas that is stronger than the global average. The first and third modes are considered to be uncertain (but major) patterns in the ensemble projections because the signs of their contributions to the future changes are dependent on the model used. Suppressed vertical motion over the equatorial (northern) Indian Ocean caused by the vertically stabilized atmosphere under the global warming scenario is the source of the first (third) mode, together with the counter vertical motion anomaly over the equatorial (northern) Pacific. The above characteristics of the modes are essentially similar to those identified in the CMIP5 analysis while different sea surface temperature anomalies are related to the secondary structures of the modes. Some uncertainties in the future projections can be attributed to the systematic differences in the model climatology of the present-day precipitation, which determines the distribution of the suppressed vertical motion under the future warmer climate.

著者

NUR'UTAMI Murni Ngestu HAYASAKA Tadahiro

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-004, (Released:2021-10-04)

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The interannual and interdecadal variabilities of Indonesian rainfall in dry seasons (June–November) are investigated by using rainfall data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) from 1939 to 2016, and from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) from 1979 to 2016. The first principal component (PC1) of both the CRU and GPCP data shows that the canonical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are major climate modes influencing the interannual variability of rainfall in Indonesia, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is the major decadal phenomenon affecting the decadal variability of the rainfall. Furthermore, the IPO modulates the influence of IOD on Indonesian rainfall, with a weaker influence during the positive IPO phase during 1979-1997 and a stronger influence during the negative IPO phases during 1939-1978 and 1998-2016. The dependency of Indonesian rainfall response to the canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki on IPO phases is not significant, although the response to the ENSO Modoki (canonical ENSO) becomes significant (less significant) in the negative IPO phase during 1998-2016 compared with earlier periods.

著者

TAKAHASHI Chiharu IMADA Yukiko WATANABE Masahiro

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-014, (Released:2021-11-12)

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The present study found a significant influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the occurrence probability of extreme snowfall and precipitation in Japan during boreal winter (December-February) using observational data and the Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF). The analysis of d4PDF containing 90-member and 50-member ensemble historical simulations by global and high-resolution regional models, respectively, enabled us to quantify and elucidate the geographical distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme weather in Japan related to the MJO. The d4PDF global simulations well represent the MJO and its teleconnection over the Pacific-North America region. Our results show that (1) the probability of extreme snowfall on the Sea of Japan side of northwestern Japan (SJA) increases (decreases) by approximately 20 % (30-40 %) associated with enhanced MJO over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (western Indian Ocean) relative to that for all winter days; (2) the extreme precipitation on the Pacific Ocean side (PAC) of Japan increases (reduces) by 40-50 % (approximately 30 %) when the MJO is active over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific); and (3) the extreme snowfall on the Kanto area in PAC increases by 30-45 % when the MJO is enhanced over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. Composite analysis reveals that different physical processes associated with the MJO are responsible for the occurrence of extremes in the three regions. The MJO intensifies cold air intrusion from Siberia into Japan associated with a more frequent blocking over East Siberia, causing extreme snowfall in SJA. The MJO stimulates the explosive development of extratropical cyclones due to enhanced moisture flux convergence, leading to extreme precipitation in PAC and extreme snowfall in Kanto. Furthermore, the Kanto snowfall is partly related to a cold air outflow from the blocking induced by the MJO.

著者

LIU Ying Lung TAM Chi-Yung AU-YEUNG Andie Yee Man

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-008, (Released:2021-10-26)

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The role of extratropical forcing on the summertime tropical synoptic-scale disturbances (TSDs) in the western north Pacific has been investigated, by conducting parallel integrations of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM). The suite of experiments consists of a control run (CTRL) with European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis data as boundary conditions, and an experimental run (EXPT) with the same setting, except that signals with zonal wavenumber > 6 were suppressed at the northern boundary (located at 42°N) of the model domain. Comparison between CTRL and EXPT showed that, without extratropical forcing, there is weaker TSD activity in the June-to-August season, with reduced precipitation over the TSD pathway. Associated with suppressed TSD, southeastward-directed wave activity is also reduced, leading to less active mixed Rossby gravity (MRG) waves in the equatorial western Pacific area. Further analysis revealed that extratropical forcing and associated circulation changes can modulate the TSD wavetrain and its coherence structure, in relation to low-level vorticity in far western north Pacific. In CTRL, west of about 140°E, TSD-related circulation tends to be stronger; in EXPT, vorticity signals and vertical motions are found to be slightly more coherent in the more eastern portion of the TSD wavetrain. The latter enhanced coherency of TSD east of 140°E, from the EXPT simulations, might be due to changes in wave activity transport channelled by modulated upper-level mid-latitude westerlies in EXPT. Our results serve to quantify how extratropical forcing and related general circulation features influence western north Pacific summertime TSD activities. Implications on the understanding of initiation of TSD are discussed.

著者

松尾 敬世 佐粧 純男

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.59, no.1, pp.26-32, 1981 (Released:2007-10-19)

参考文献数

2

被引用文献数

25 33

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輪島,松本,日光測候所の地上気象観測データを使用して,雪片の融解に与える湿度の影響を解析的に調べた。地上で観測される降水のタイプ(雨,雪)は,地上気温のみならず湿度に依存して変化することが明らかになった。降雪は地上気温が0°C以上のかなり高い場合にも見られ,これは低い地上の湿度と関連していた。これらの降雪は,地上の湿度がある臨界値以下であれば必ず見られた。三地点の臨界湿度と地上気温の関係を回帰分析により求めると次のようになった。RHcri=-7.5T+93,輪島 RHcri=-7.3T+96,松本 RHcri=-6.2T+91,日光得られた関係は松尾,佐粧(1981)が計算によって求めた雪片の融解開始時の温•湿度の関係式と良く一致した。

著者

加藤 輝之

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.98, no.3, pp.485-509, 2020

被引用文献数

48

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日本では3時間積算降水量200mmを超える集中豪雨がしばしば観測され、過酷な地滑りや洪水をもたらす。そのような事例は主に、日本語で「線状降水帯」と名付けられた準停滞線状降水システムによってもたらされる。線状降水帯は次々と発生する発達した対流セルが列をなした、組織化した積乱雲群によって、数時間にわたってほぼ同じ場所を通過または停滞することで作り出される、線状に伸びる長さ50~300km程度、幅20~50km程度の強い降水をともなう雨域として定義される。線状降水帯の形成過程としては主に、暖湿流がほぼ停滞している局地前線に流入することで、対流セルが前線上で同時に発生する破線型と、下層風の風上側に新しい対流セルが繰り返し発生し、既存のセルと線状に組織化するバックビルディング型の2つに分類される。<br> 本研究では、線状の降水システムについての過去研究のレビューに加えて、線状降水帯の数値モデルによる再現性および線状降水帯の発生しやすい条件について調査した。2014年8月20日の広島豪雨の事例の再現では、対流セルの形成・発達過程をおおよそ再現できる少なくとも水平解像度2kmが必要であったが、その内部構造を正確に再現するには水平解像度250~500mが必要であった。2㎞のモデルは10時間前の初期値を用いることで広島の事例を量的に再現したが、予想された最大積算降水量は初期時刻が線状降水帯の発生時刻に近づくにつれてかなり減少した。この減少は過度の下層乾燥空気の流入が新たな積乱雲群が発生する領域を移動させたためであった。<br> 線状降水帯を診断的に予測するために、線状降水帯の発生しやすい条件を過去の集中豪雨事例における大気環境場から統計的に構築した。500m高度データをベースに判断する下層水蒸気場を代表して、(1)大量の水蒸気フラックス量(>150g m^-2 s^-1)と(2)自由対流高度までの距離が短いこと(<1000 m)の2つの条件を選択した。ほかの4つとして、(3)中層(500hPa と 700hPa)の相対湿度が高い(>60%)、(4)ストームに相対的なヘリシティで判断する大きな鉛直シア(>100m² s^-2)、(5)総観スケール(700hPa で空間 400km平均)の上昇流場で判断する上昇流域と(6)700~850hPaに度々みられる暖気移流を除外するための平衡高度が3000m以上の条件を選択した。

著者

和達 清夫

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.3, no.8, pp.201-211, 1925-09-18 (Released:2009-02-05)

被引用文献数

1 1

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Some seismograms of the destructive earthquake occurred on May 23rd, 1925 in North Tazima district, show distinctly so-called the Mohorovi_??_i_??_ wave _??_. One of them is shown in Fig. (4) magnified from the seismograms of Wiechert's 200kg. seismograph installed at the Central Meteorological Observatory in Tokyo. (Epicenter distance about 450km.)The author of the present paper has drawn the hodograph for the longitudinal wave P from the results of seismic observations of the meteorological stations in this country as well as the time difference between P and _??_ from seismograms of these stations in case when it revealed on it. Moreover the curve of _??_ is also drawn on the same diagram and is shown in Fig. (6).Nextly, the author has assumed that, to interprete the time curve the discontinuity layer exists not so far from the surface in the earth crust. Following numerical values are obtained:-Velocity of the longitudinal waveabove the discontinuity layer, v1=5.56km. per see.Ditto under the discontinuity layer, v2=7.50km. per see.Epicenter distance of stations where Pand _??_ waves arrive simultaneously Δ0-120km.Difference of T(P)-T(_??_), shown in Fig. (6) is 6.2 sec.From these values, the depth of the discontinuity layer and that of the seismic foeus of this earthquake is determined. He has also compared the time of occurrence with those of the other two great earthquakes which have occurred on Jan. 15th, 1924 and Sept. 1st, 1923 respectively in Fig. (1); and ascertained that the geographical effect is not so great in these time-curves that the following conclusion may hold good in its main figure, even in any earthquake which occurred everywhere in this country.Followings are main results obtained in this paper:-(1) So called “initial movement” takes place with sudden change in its magnitude, and sometimes in direction, at the place about 100-200km. distant from the epicenter. Fig. (5).(2) The epicenter distance above mentioned depends chiefly upon the depth of seismic focus, therefore the depth may be estimated by this means. (3) I_??_itial movement must be very weak at the stations which lie within the epicenter distance, from 200km. to 1000km. approximately.(4) For the determination of the direction of epicenter from that of the initial movement of longitudinal wave, it is better to use _??_ phase than P and this will be done with much accuracy and easiness. (5) Depth of the discontinuity layer and that of the focus of Tazima-earthquakes are calculated and their values have been found to be about 42km. and 32km. respectively.(6) S-phase of the transverse wave begin to appear gradually o_??_ seismogram and with increasing epicenter distance it becomes more distinct.(7) Irregular form of isochronal curves may be considered as the effect of the discontinuity layer whose depth may not be definite in a part of the earth-crust of this part of the globe.(8) Well known “Omori's formula” which expresses the relation between the duration of preliminary tremor and epicenter distance, may hold good with _??_ and _??_ phases for the region of small epicenter distance and with P and L phases at distant places.The present paper is a preliminary report and the more complete studies will follow in a near future.

著者

Jiawei BAO Bjorn STEVENS

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.99, no.6, pp.1483-1499, 2021 (Released:2021-12-24)

参考文献数

34

被引用文献数

2 5

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Understanding of the tropical atmosphere is elaborated around two elementary ideas, one being that density is homogenized on isobars, which is referred to as the weak temperature gradient (WTG), and the other being that the vertical thermal structure follows a moist-adiabatic lapse rate. This study uses simulations from global storm-resolving models to investigate the accuracy of these ideas. Our results show that horizontally, the density temperature appears to be homogeneous, but only in the mid- and lower troposphere (between 400 hPa and 800 hPa). To achieve a homogeneous density temperature, the horizontal absolute temperature structure adjusts to balance the horizontal moisture difference. Thus, water vapor plays an important role in the horizontal temperature distribution. Density temperature patterns in the mid- and lower troposphere vary by about 0.3 K on the scale of individual ocean basins but differ by 1 K among basins. We use equivalent potential temperature to explore the vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere, and we compare the results assuming the temperature following pseudo-adiabat and reversible-adiabat (isentropic) with the effect of condensate loading. Our results suggest that the tropical atmosphere in saturated convective regions tends to adopt a thermal structure that is isentropic below the zero-degree isotherm and pseudo-adiabatic above it. However, the tropical mean temperature is substantially colder and is set by the bulk of convection, which is affected by entrainment in the lower troposphere.

著者

ENDO Hirokazu KITOH Akio MIZUTA Ryo OSE Tomoaki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-073, (Released:2021-09-01)

被引用文献数

9

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Future changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and the associated atmospheric circulation changes are investigated based on ensemble projections with the 60-km mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM60). The projections at the end of the twenty-first century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario indicate an overall increase in EASM precipitation, but with large sub-seasonal and regional variations. In June, the Meiyu–Baiu rainband is projected to strengthen, with its eastern part (i.e., the Baiu rainband) shifted southward relative to its present-day position. This result is robust within the ensemble simulations. In July and August, the simulations consistently project a significant increase in precipitation over the northern East Asian continent and neighboring seas; however, there is a lack of consensus on the projection of the Meiyu–Baiu rainband in July. A small change in precipitation over the Pacific is another feature in August.  Sensitivity experiments with the MRI-AGCM60 reveal that the precipitation changes in early summer are dominated by the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) warming (i.e., uniform warming and the tropical pattern change), which induce an increase in atmospheric moisture and a strengthening and southward shift of the upper-level East Asian westerly jet (EAJ), especially over the Pacific. On the other hand, the influence of land warming and successive large SST warming in the extratropics is evident in the precipitation changes in late summer. These late summer effects oppose and exceed the early summer effects through changes in the EAJ and low-level monsoon winds. These results suggest that the competition between the opposing factors makes the signal of the Meiyu–Baiu rainband response smaller in July than in June, and thus there tends to be a larger spread among simulations regarding the future tendency of the rainband in July.

著者

BAO Jiawei STEVENS Bjorn

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-072, (Released:2021-09-06)

被引用文献数

5

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Understanding of the tropical atmosphere is elaborated around two elementary ideas, one being that density is homogenized on isobars, which is referred to as the weak temperature gradient (WTG), the other being that the vertical structure follows a moist-adiabatic lapse rate. This study uses simulations from global storm-resolving models to investigate the accuracy of these ideas. Our results show that horizontally the density temperature appears to be homogeneous, but only in the mid- and lower troposphere (between 400 hPa and 800 hPa). To achieve a homogeneous density temperature, the horizontal absolute temperature structure adjusts to balance the horizontal moisture difference. Thus, water vapor plays an important role in the horizontal temperature distribution. Density temperature patterns in the mid- and lower troposphere vary by about 0.3 K on the scale of individual ocean basins, but differ by 1 K among basins. We use equivalent potential temperature to explore the vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere and we compare the results assuming pseudo-adiabat and the reversible-adiabat (isentropic) with the effect of condensate loading. Our results suggest that the tropical atmosphere in saturated convective regions tends to adopt a thermal structure that is isentropic below the zero-degree isotherm and pseudo-adiabatic above. However, the tropical mean temperature is substantially colder, and is set by the bulk of convection which is affected by entrainment in the lower troposphere.

著者

和達 清夫

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.5, no.6, pp.119-145, 1927

被引用文献数

10

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地震の震源の深さに就いては從來種々の結果が得られて居るが、近來近地地震觀測の精密さに依り震源の深さは殆んど總ての地震に就き四十粁内外が最も普通となされて居る。我が國に起る多くの地震に就きても、多くの研究は悉くこの程度の淺き震源の深さを與へて居る。而るに著者は或種の地震を研究したる結果、其れ等が三百粁以上の深き震源を有すべき結論に達し、假りに之を深層地震と呼ぶ事にした。此の結論が正しければ、從來の地震源捜索法に改良を要し、又過去の地震表の訂正を要することゝなる。依うて本論文に於て其の決論の達したる研究を述べて學會の批判を仰がんと欲す。多くの集蒐されたる深層地震中特に大正十五年七月廿七日の地震は、本州中央部の地下約三百五十粁の深さに發現したる代表的の深層地震なりと考へらるゝを以て、其の記象型及び震波の走時に關し詳細の調査がなされて居る。本論文に於ては右研究の結果として、地震源の深さ及び地殼上層に於ける震波の傳播速度が求められた。<br>かゝる深層地震の存在は近地地震の觀測に依り地殼上層の物理的状況の研究をなすのに極めて好都合の材料を與ふるものである。近年の觀測に於て確に深層地震であると決定されるものを求め其等の分布から深層地震帶なるものが求められた。この深層地震帶は從來の地震帶と略直角に交叉し從來のものと別にある新しい意味を持つ地震帯であり、其の地震帶附近に於て近來の大地震が發現して居るのも興昧ある事である。此の地震帶に就いても大體の調査がなされて居るが、淺き大地震と深層地震との間に何等かの關係が認められさうである。此の問題は大地震の警戒に關し實際的に興味ある問題を與へるものと思はれる。

著者

真鍋 淑郎

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.36, no.4, pp.123-134, 1958 (Released:2007-10-19)

参考文献数

24

被引用文献数

39 38

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先ず毎日のデータを使って,冬の日本海から大気に供給される熱量及び水蒸気量を大気の熱収支から求めた6前の論文(12)で日本海に寒気の吹き出しが卓越するときの変質を議論したが,ここでは同じ計算を冬全体について行った結果を述べる。従って,エントロピー及び水蒸気の流入量流出量の計算,放射冷却及び凝結の潜熱の解放量等の見積り法の詳細は前の論文(12)を参照されたい。前にも述べた様に,周辺を密な観測網で囲まれた日本海はこの種の研究にはもってこいの場所であろう。得られた結果を簡単に述べる。1955年1月及び2月について顕熱供給量を得たが平均約555cal/cm2/dayで相当大きな値である。これは放射によつて逃げる熱量或いは凝結の潜熱発生量の数倍になる。尤も前に求めた典型的な吹き出しの時(1554年12月下旬)の顕熱供給量1030ca1/cm2/dayに比べればずっと小さい。この事は又気象状態に応じて供給量がかなり大きく変動する事を暗示している。一方同じ冬について平均蒸発量を計算した。即ち約5.6mm/dayでこれを熱量に換算すると約340cal/cm2/dayとなる。ここで興味ある事は,顕熱供給量が潜熱供給量を遙かに上廻つているという事である。この傾向が水温と気温との差の更に大きい典型的吹き出しの時一層顕ちょになるという事は前の論文(12)を参照すればわかる。ところがこの期間の日本海での平均ボーエン比を計算して見たが,吹き出しのときと同様ほぼ1に近い。この違いは,冬の日本海の様な不安定なところでは,恐らく対流が非常に盛んで熱と水蒸気とが必ずしも古典乱流論で仮定した,ように同じメカニズムで供給されていない事を暗示している様に思われる。次に上の計算結果を確かめるため,冬の日本海水の熱収支の計算を行った。既にW.Jacobs氏(10)及び宮崎氏(13)は,海の一年間の熱収支をもとにしてエネルギー交換量の経験式を出したが,ここでは冬期について収支計算を行った。従って冬期の水温変化のデーターを用いたが,この点が彼等の場合と違う点である。その結果大気の熱収支から得られた全エネルギー供給量に近い値を得る事ができた(約880cal/cm2/day)。ここで気付いたのは,エネルギー供給係数が安定度によつてかなり違うらしく,従ってJacobs氏或は宮崎氏が年平均のエネルギー供給係数を使って求めた値は,冬の日本海の様な不安定な場所では,かなり実際より小さいらしいという事である。

著者

青梨 和正 田島 知子 久保田 拓志 岡本 幸三

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.99, no.5, pp.1201-1230, 2021 (Released:2021-10-30)

参考文献数

35

被引用文献数

2

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全天候マイクロ波イメージャ輝度温度を雲解像モデルの降水物理量へ同化するため、2スケール近傍法を使うアンサンブルに基づく変分同化法スキーム(EnVar)に、降水の非正規型確率分布関数(PDF)と、PDFの代用レジームを使った新しい位置ずれ補正法を導入した。 多くの事例について降水のアンサンブル予報摂動の既存の非正規PDFモデルへの適合性を評価した。これをもとに、降水強度のPDFとして混合対数正規分布を選び、EnVarに降水なし、降水ありの2つのPDFレジームを導入した。次に、EnVarで非降水、降水、強雨の代用レジームを導入し、そのPDFを対象地点の周囲のPDFの平均で近似する、降水の位置ずれ補正法を開発した。この平均の水平スケールは、アンサンブル予報摂動の相似性に基づいて推定した。上記手法が、マイクロ波イメージャ輝度温度の観測値と第一推定値の差のバイアスと正規性を向上させた。 台風1518について全天候マイクロ波イメージャ輝度温度観測データを同化する実験を行なった。その結果、本研究のEnVarは、従来の、降水の単一の正規分布PDFレジームを使うEnVarに比べて、衛星全球降水マップ(GSMaP)に近い降水解析値を与えた。降水の混合対数正規分布の導入は、台風や前線付近の強雨域で解析降水量を強め、代用レジームの使用は、解析値の降水の位置ずれ誤差を大幅に減らした。本研究のEnVarは、雲解像モデルの12時間予報までの降水予報を改善し、1日以上の台風中心位置や中心気圧の予報を改善した。さらにEnVarの予報解析サイクルは、1時刻の輝度温度同化よりも、台風周辺の強雨の短期予報と台風に付随した降水帯の予報を改善した。

著者

HIOKI Tomohito TSUBOKI Kazuhisa

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-064, (Released:2021-07-02)

被引用文献数

2

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The central pressure fall in a typhoon is associated with the development of the warm core and mass divergence in the eye. Trajectory analyses were used to investigate the origins of air moving into the warm core and the paths of air parcels leaving the eye. First, developing Typhoon Wipha (2007) was simulated by using a high-resolution (2-km) cloud-resolving model to represent the central pressure fall and axisymmetric structures such as the warm core in the upper levels of the eye, the eyewall, and the secondary circulation. Then, using the model output data, backward trajectories were calculated from the eye; the results show that the air parcels comprising the warm core originated from the lower troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Those originating from the lower troposphere, whose equivalent potential temperature (θe) is increased by the latent heat flux from the sea, ascend through the eyewall and move inward in the upper troposphere. Those originating in the lower stratosphere, which have high potential temperature (θ), descend from the lower stratosphere to the upper troposphere. Thus, the warm core consists of high-θe air from the lower troposphere and high-θ air from the lower stratosphere. Next, forward trajectories were calculated to examine the paths of air parcels leaving the eye; the results show that air parcels leave the eye through the eyewall throughout the troposphere, particularly at heights below 2 km and between 9 and 12 km, which ultimately results in a central pressure fall.

著者

NGUYEN T. Hanh ISHIJIMA Kentaro SUGAWARA Satoshi HASEBE Fumio

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-056, (Released:2021-05-20)

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Stratospheric profiles of the mean age of air estimated from cryogenic air samples acquired during a field campaign over Indonesia, the Coordinated Upper-Troposphere-to-Stratosphere Balloon Experiment in Biak (CUBE/Biak), are investigated by employing the boundary impulse evolving response (BIER) method and Lagrangian backward trajectories, with the aid of an atmospheric general circulation model-based chemistry transport model (ACTM). The ACTM provides realistic meteorological fields at one-hour intervals by nudging toward the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim). Since the BIER method is capable of taking unresolved diffusive processes into account, while the Lagrangian method can distinguish the pathways the air parcels took before reaching the sample site, the application of the two methods to the common transport field simulated by the ACTM is useful in assessing the CO2- and SF6-derived mean ages. The reliability of the simulated transport field has been verified by the reproducibility of the observed CO2, SF6, and water vapor profiles using the Lagrangian method. The profile of CO2 age is reproduced reasonably well by the Lagrangian method with a small young bias being consistent with the termination of trajectories in finite length of time, whereas the BIER method overestimates the CO2 age above 25 km altitude possibly due to high diffusivity in the transport model. In contrast, the SF6 age is only reproducible in the lower stratosphere, and far exceeds the estimates from the Lagrangian method above 25 km altitude. As air parcels of mesospheric origin are excluded in the Lagrangian age estimation, this discrepancy, together with the fact that the observed SF6 mole fractions are much lower than the trajectory-derived values in this height region, supports the idea that the stratospheric air samples are mixed with SF6-depleted mesospheric air, leading to overestimation of the mean age.