著者

Genta Ueno Tomoyuki Higuchi Takashi Kagimoto Naoki Hirose

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.3, pp.5-8, 2007 (Released:2007-01-31)

参考文献数

19

被引用文献数

7 17

---

We report an application of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and smoother (EnKS) to an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of Zebiak and Cane, into which the sea surface height (SSH) anomaly observations by TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetry are assimilated. Smoothed estimates of the 54,403 dimensional state are obtained from 1,981 observational points with 2,048 ensemble members. While assimilated data are SSH anomalies alone, the estimated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reproduce primary temporal characteristics of the actual SST. The smoothed estimate of the zonal wind anomalies is also consistent with the observation except for the westerly anomalies in the western Pacific.

著者

Faye T. Cruz Hidetaka Sasaki

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.13, pp.13-18, 2017 (Released:2017-01-29)

参考文献数

37

被引用文献数

7

---

This study evaluates the performance of the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) in simulating the present climate over Southeast Asia to determine its applicability in downscaling climate projections in the region. Simulations from 1989 to 2008 are conducted over the region at 25-km resolution using boundary conditions from the ECMWF ERA-Interim dataset. The topographic effect on rainfall is well represented in NHRCM but can result in wet (dry) biases in the windward (leeward) side of mountains. NHRCM is able to reduce the overestimated rainfall in ERA-Interim, particularly over eastern Philippines and in the Maritime Continent, with improvements in spatial patterns. Both seasonality and daily distribution of rainfall are represented in most regions. On the other hand, there is a tendency to underestimate the number of wet days, especially during the respective wet season of the subregion, and to overestimate daily rainfall intensity. NHRCM also has an overall cold model bias, which reduces the warm bias in ERA-Interim, except for some parts of Indochina during boreal winter and spring. These results indicate the improved representation of present climate in Southeast Asia using NHRCM, and its potential applicability in downscaling climate projections to increase projected climate scenarios for the region.

著者

Masaru Kunii Michiko Otsuka Kazuki Shimoji Hiromu Seko

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.209-214, 2016 (Released:2016-08-05)

参考文献数

21

被引用文献数

13

---

Himawari-8, a next-generation geostationary meteorological satellite that has been in operation since July 2015, incorporates significant improvements in resolution, scan frequency, and number of bands, bringing new capabilities to weather forecasting. By taking advantage of the availability of high-frequency data with high spatial resolution, an ensemble Kalman filter implemented with a mesoscale regional model assimilated rapid-scan atmospheric motion vectors (RS-AMVs) from Himawari-8. Data assimilation and ensemble forecast experiments were conducted for a heavy rainfall event that occurred in September 2015 in the Kanto and Tohoku regions of Japan. The results showed that the inclusion of RS-AMVs improved precipitation scores, especially for weak and moderate rainfall. In addition, the subsequent model forecast simulated successfully the band of heavy rainfall. Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts showed that when RS-AMVs were assimilated, the results captured the occurrence of torrential rainfall with a relatively high probability. The ensemble-based correlation analysis indicated that the strong rainfall was related to advection of moisture at low to mid levels and moisture flux convergence at lower levels. Simulations with a higher resolution model initialized by nested data assimilation showed that the assimilation of frequent RS-AMVs improved the forecast results.

著者

Masamichi Ohba Hiroaki Ueda

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2, pp.176-179, 2006 (Released:2006-12-26)

参考文献数

16

被引用文献数

15 47

---

Interannual fluctuations of the convective activity around the Philippines are highly correlated with the east-west gradient of SST between the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and the western North Pacific (WNP). We conducted a set of experiments by use of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the relative importance of the remote (NIO) versus in situ (WNP) SST anomalies in determining the WNP monsoon rainfall as ocean-to-atmosphere feedback. The solutions indicate that both in situ and remote SST anomalies regulate precipitation around the Philippines in the early summer. This result implies that the WNP monsoon rainfall is sensitive to the spatial distribution of the NIO SST anomalies as well as the in situ anomalies. These physical interpretations suggest further increase of the predictability in the WNP monsoon.

著者

Junya Miyajima Fumiaki Fujibe

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.7, pp.157-160, 2011 (Released:2011-10-14)

参考文献数

6

被引用文献数

5 9

---

Climatological features of the distribution of extreme precipitation in Japan were documented using record values of ten-minute, hourly and daily precipitation for 1994 to 2009. It was found that the distribution of top ten-minute precipitation has a moderate north-south gradient (increasing southward at about 3% per degree in latitude), while ten-minute precipitation of lower ranks (up to 50th to 100th cases at each station) shows a stronger latitude dependence (about 6% per degree) that is comparable to those of hourly and daily precipitations. In addition, extreme precipitation shows local maxima on southern sides of land in western Japan corresponding to orographic enhancement, which is found for all the time scales but is most conspicuous for daily precipitation.

著者

Naoya Takahashi Tadahiro Hayasaka Hajime Okamoto

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.91-95, 2016 (Released:2016-04-05)

参考文献数

34

被引用文献数

1

---

We revealed the difference in the ice cloud microphysical properties of high clouds between the western Pacific (WP) and eastern Pacific (EP) regions, based on satellite retrievals. The effective particle radius (re) was analyzed by using active sensors on board the CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites. We focused on ice clouds, defined as clouds with cloud top temperatures of less than 0°C. These ice clouds are classified into five types defined by the cloud optical thickness (COT). Mean cloud top heights of high cloud in WP were higher than those in EP by about 2km. The re of optically thin clouds (0 < COT < 0.3) showed weak temperature dependency over both regions. For optically thick clouds (3 < COT), re increases with temperature (T). In the WP, re at lower temperatures (T < −40°C) is larger than that in the EP, whereas in the EP, re at higher temperatures (T > −40°C) is larger than that in the WP. The difference in re may be caused by differences in moisture convergence and upward motion.

著者

Rui Ito Tetsuya Takemi Osamu Arakawa

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.100-105, 2016 (Released:2016-04-22)

参考文献数

23

被引用文献数

5 38

---

Typhoon Songda (2004), while undergoing an extratropical transition and reintensification over the Sea of Japan, spawned serious damages over forest areas in the northern part of Japan. To clarify influences of anticipated global warming on the typhoon hazard in high-latitude regions, we carried out numerical experiments on Typhoon Songda in a current climate and a pseudo global warming climate and examined the impacts of climate change on the typhoon intensify and windstorms for the region. The typhoon intensity at its maturity becomes stronger in a warming climate, and the typhoon while passing over the Sea of Japan weakens more rapidly in the warming climate. Thus the strong wind over the northern part of Japan in the warming climate also becomes weaker. We examined atmospheric environmental factors in the higher-latitude region: sea surface temperature, vertical shear, and meridional gradient of temperature. It was found that the environmental meridional gradient of temperature at the 500 hPa level is smaller in the warming climate than in the current climate, which indicates that the baroclinicity becomes weak under global warming. The weak baroclinicity makes the typhoon environment unfavorable for the extratropical transition, and therefore, possibly reduces the severity of typhoon wind in northern Japan.

著者

Qoosaku Moteki

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.60-64, 2016 (Released:2016-02-27)

参考文献数

25

被引用文献数

1 1

---

The eastward propagation processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) was examined from a case study of the first MJO generated in late October during CINDY2011. The eastward propagation of the MJO was found to be synchronized with an extratropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere. The synchronized propagation of the MJO and the extratrpical cyclone was associated with the ridge and trough pair meridionally extending between 30°S∼15°N. The convection center of the MJO shifted eastward as a result of the westerly winds in the tropics, expanding eastward by the zonal pressure gradient force between the ridge and trough.

著者

Daisuke Takasuka Tomoki Miyakawa Masaki Satoh Hiroaki Miura

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.11, pp.170-176, 2015 (Released:2015-12-21)

参考文献数

42

被引用文献数

3 16

---

The roles of topography on the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are discussed using an aqua-planet of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) with a 220-km horizontal mesh. Four topographical configurations with different land-sea masks and elevations are tested using a zonally non-uniform fixed-SST distribution. Explicit cloud microphysics is used to obtain MJO-like signals. Broad land cover generally weakens convection because of reduced surface latent heat flux (LHF). Forced lifting because of topography enhances local convection on the upwind side of high topography. It is suggested that the zonal contrasts of LHF are one reason for the delayed eastward propagation of the MJO-like disturbances. When only the eastern portion of the convective envelope is over land where the LHF is small, the LHF becomes rear-heavy, resulting in delayed eastward propagation. As the entire convective envelope proceeds over land, its contrast decreases or even reverses, resulting in faster eastward propagation.

著者

Sam Sherriff-Tadano Hisanori Itoh

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, pp.115-119, 2013 (Released:2013-08-23)

参考文献数

13

被引用文献数

1

---

Teleconnection patterns in boreal winter were sought by using the streamfunction based on one-point covariance analysis. As a result, five patterns with two new patterns, i.e., the North and South Pacific Oscillation pattern (PO) and the Middle Atlantic pattern (MA), were obtained. The PO is an interhemispheric pattern with major centers in the Pacific, related to the El Niño/La Niña. The MA has a similar structure with the East Atlantic pattern (EA), though the orientation of the pattern and the difference in the sustaining mechanism, as well as a relatively low correlation between the two indices, distinguish the MA from the EA, with the primary importance of the MA from several pieces of evidence. The PO and MA have significant relations to the surface air temperature mostly through the temperature advection. By comparing the result of the combined EOF for the zonal and meridional winds, the appropriateness of the use of the streamfunction in association with wind variations was also confirmed.

著者

Juan J. Ruiz Takemasa Miyoshi Shinsuke Satoh Tomoo Ushio

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.11, pp.48-52, 2015 (Released:2015-04-28)

参考文献数

20

被引用文献数

3 8

---

This study develops and tests a quality control (QC) algorithm for reflectivity from the single polarization phased array weather radar (PAWR) in Osaka, with particular focus on clutter detection, in preparation for radar data assimilation into a high resolution numerical model. The QC algorithm employs a Bayesian classification that combines the information from different parameters based on reflectivity and radial velocity. To take advantage of PAWR's unique high temporal and vertical resolutions, a new parameter based on the temporal variability of reflectivity is included. In addition, clutter probability estimations from previous volume scans are also included. The newly developed QC algorithm performs properly in two events characterized by heavy convective precipitation and stratiform precipitation.

著者

Koji Terasaki Masahiro Sawada Takemasa Miyoshi

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.11, pp.23-26, 2015 (Released:2015-02-26)

参考文献数

14

被引用文献数

4 32

---

The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is implemented with the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) to assimilate the real-world observation data. First, the NICAM-LETKF system was developed using grid conversions between the NICAM's icosahedral grid and LETKF's uniform longitude-latitude grid to take advantage of the existing codes of Miyoshi. The grid conversions require additional computations and may cause additional interpolation error. Therefore, the LETKF code is modified, so that the LETKF reads and writes the NICAM's icosahedral grid data directly. We call this new version ICO-LETKF. In this study, the two systems are tested and compared using real conventional observations. The results show that the ICO-LETKF successfully accelerates the computations and improves the analyses.

著者

Fumiaki Fujibe

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.11, pp.5-9, 2015 (Released:2015-01-30)

参考文献数

14

被引用文献数

1 26

---

Long-term changes in extreme hourly precipitation in Japan were examined using data at 983 stations for 1979 to 2013, with relation to the variations in air temperature (AT) and sea-surface temperature (SST). According to the statistics over the whole country, annual maximum and 95 percentile precipitations show increasing trends of 2-4%/decade, whereas AT and SST have risen at a rate of 0.2-0.3°C/decade. Analysis for each region and season indicates that the increase in extreme precipitation is a nation-wide feature and is not limited to a single season. Moreover, year-to-year variations in extreme precipitation tend to be in phase with those of AT and SST, with a correlation coefficient of 0.5-0.6 on the annual basis, although negative correlation is found for the summer season in western Japan and the Nansei Islands.

著者

Yusuke Urabe Shuhei Maeda

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.176-179, 2014 (Released:2014-11-11)

参考文献数

24

被引用文献数

2 18

---

Since the late 1990s, surface temperature has been higher than (near or lower than) normal for summer/autumn (winter/spring) over Japan, indicating that the seasonal temperature contrast has become enhanced. In order to relate this to global-scale variability on decadal timescale, atmospheric re-analysis and ocean assimilation datasets were analyzed. It is suggested that the La Niña-like conditions which have been frequently observed in the tropical Pacific oceanic and atmospheric fields in the last decade have contributed to these temperature tendencies observed in Japan. These global characteristics are consistent with the global warming hiatus. The results presented here indicate that not only interannual variability and century-scale long-term trends but also decadal variability in global oceanic and atmospheric fields significantly affect Japan's temperature.

著者

Ryo Mizuta Osamu Arakawa Tomoaki Ose Shoji Kusunoki Hirokazu Endo Akio Kitoh

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.167-171, 2014 (Released:2014-10-23)

参考文献数

14

被引用文献数

83 140

---

Climate changes for the end of the 21st century projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models are classified into three clusters by a cluster analysis of annual-mean tropical sea surface temperature (SST) change patterns. The classified SST change patterns are featured by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific and inter-hemispheric contrast of the warming. Precipitation and atmospheric circulation responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the SST changes are examined. Precipitation increase is larger where SST warming is larger than surroundings and vice versa. Common precipitation and atmospheric circulation responses for each cluster are found also over tropical lands and the extratropics as well as in the tropical oceans, suggesting that some remote effects of the tropical SST change patterns could be one reason for less agreement among CMIP5 models in climate changes.

著者

Takuya Kawabata Kosuke Ito Kazuo Saito

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.145-149, 2014 (Released:2014-10-04)

参考文献数

27

被引用文献数

2 5

---

A new 4-dimensional variational data assimilation system with 0.5-km grid spacing (NHM-4DVAR.v3) was developed by integrating the nonhydrostatic storm-scale 4D-Var (NHM-4DVAR.v2) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic model (NHM) based Variational Data Assimilation System (JNoVA). Both systems are based on the JMANHM, but horizontal resolutions, their formulations, adjoint models of physical processes, and observation operators are different. NHM-4DVAR.v3 comprises advantages of both systems: a penalty term, optimization of lateral boundary conditions, and observation operators for advanced observations. This development aimed at improving the forecast accuracy of hazardous weather at meso-γ-scales (5∼20 km). In this paper, the characteristics of NHM-4DVAR.v3 and some results, including the integrated formulations, are presented. An assimilation experiment of actual observations using NHM-4DVAR.v3 with 2-km grid spacing was found to show improvement over NHM-4DVAR.v2 at the same resolution. As a final goal, NHM-4DVAR.v3 was applied with a 0.5-km resolution. The comparison between assimilation results by NHM-4DVAR.v3 with 0.5- and 2-km horizontal resolutions indicates that analyses with super high resolutions can reproduce more detailed atmospheric features such as convective clouds.

著者

Hideo Shiogama Masahiro Watanabe Yukiko Imada Masato Mori Youichi Kamae Masayoshi Ishii Masahide Kimoto

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.122-126, 2014 (Released:2014-08-02)

参考文献数

35

被引用文献数

8 39 1

---

A severe heat wave occurred in the southwestern United States (US) during June and July 2013. To investigate the effects of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change on this event, we generated large ensemble simulations of possible weather using the MIROC5A climate model forced by “historical external forcing agents, sea surface temperature (SST) observations and sea ice (SIC) observations” both with and without human influence. It was suggested that both the anthropogenic warming and an atmospheric circulation regime related to the natural variability of SST and SIC made the heat wave event more likely. On the other hand, no significant human influence was found in atmospheric circulation patterns. These results were robust for two different estimates of anthropogenic signals on SST and SIC.

著者

Chiaki Kobayashi Hirokazu Endo Yukinari Ota Shinya Kobayashi Hirokatsu Onoda Yayoi Harada Kazutoshi Onogi Hirotaka Kamahori

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.78-82, 2014 (Released:2014-05-14)

参考文献数

11

被引用文献数

6 51

---

As a subset of the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) project, the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency is conducting a global atmospheric reanalysis that assimilates only conventional surface and upper air observations, with no use of satellite observations, using the same data assimilation system as the JRA-55. The project, named the JRA-55 Conventional (JRA-55C), aims to produce a more homogeneous dataset over a long period, unaffected by changes in historical satellite observing systems. The dataset is intended to be suitable for studies of climate change or multi-decadal variability. The climatological properties deduced from the early results of the JRA-55C are similar to those of the JRA-55 in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, except for high southern latitudes. On the basis of forecast skill, the quality of the JRA-55C is inferior to that of the JRA-55, but the JRA-55C has better temporal homogeneity than the JRA-55. The skill of the latter changes during the JRA-55 period. We have completed 85% of the entire JRA-55C calculation as of February 2014. We expect that the JRA-55C will contribute to a much better understanding of the impact of changes in observing systems on climate trends and variability estimated from the JRA-55.

著者

Teppei J. Yasunari K.-M. Lau Sarith P. P. Mahanama Peter R. Colarco Arlindo M. da Silva Teruo Aoki Kazuma Aoki Naoto Murao Sadamu Yamagata Yuji Kodama

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.50-56, 2014 (Released:2014-04-23)

参考文献数

44

被引用文献数

5 14

---

The snow darkening module evaluating dust, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) depositions on the mass of snow impurities and albedo has been developed for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth System Model, as the GOddard SnoW Impurity Module (GOSWIM). GOSWIM consists of the updated snow albedo scheme from a previous study (Yasunari et al. 2011) and a newly developed mass concentration calculation scheme, directly using aerosol depositions from the chemical transport model (GOCART) in GEOS-5. Compared to observations at Sapporo, the off-line simulations, forced by observation-based meteorology and aerosol depositions from GOES-5, reasonably simulated the seasonal migration of snow depth, albedos, and impurities of dust, BC, and OC in the snow surface. However, the simulated dust and BC mass concentrations in snow were especially underestimated except for the BC in the early winter, compared to the observations. Increasing the deposition rates of dust and BC could explain the observations. Removing BC deposition could possibly lead to an extension of snow cover duration in Sapporo of four days. Comparing the off-line GOSWIM and the GEOS-5 global simulations, we found that determining better local precipitation and deposition rates of the aerosols are key factors in generating better GOSWIM snow darkening simulation in NASA GEOS-5.

著者

Takuji Sugidachi Masatomo Fujiwara

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, pp.179-182, 2013 (Released:2013-11-27)

参考文献数

15

---

A new temperature-dependence correction (T-D correction) for Meisei RS2-91, RS-01G, and RS-06G radiosonde relative humidity (RH) measurements has been developed recently to remove the artificial stepwise change of ∼3% RH at 0°C associated with the present (original) correction. These radiosondes have been used at most of the Japanese upper-air stations since the 1990s. The historical radiosonde humidity records at Sapporo and Tateno stations on the 925, 700, and 500 hPa pressure levels show apparent large downward trends between 1999 and 2009. This is because the original T-D correction has only been applied since February 2003 after a moist bias was discovered. The new T-D correction is found to result in a much smaller downward RH trend at Sapporo and almost no trend at Tateno.