著者

James Taylor Arata Amemiya Takumi Honda Yasumitsu Maejima Takemasa Miyoshi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-008, (Released:2021-02-09)

被引用文献数

6

---

The predictability of the July 2020 heavy rainfall event that saw record-breaking rainfall over Western Japan in July 2020 is examined with the near real-time SCALE-LETKF numerical modelling system in a low resolution 18-km configuration setting. Ensemble-mean 5-day rainfall total forecasts showed close agreement with Japanese Meteorological Agency 1-km precipitation analyses in relation to the large-scale distribution of rainfall and to location of heaviest rainfall over Kyushu. Onset and duration of rainfall at specific sites across Kyushu were also well predicted by the forecasts. However, the precise prediction of heavy rainfall, including over the worst-hit Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures, was severely underestimated. Examination of the atmospheric conditions at the time of the heavy rainfall from reanalysis datasets and ensemble member forecasts showed very high humidity over central Kyushu with strong transport of moisture from the southwest to central regions. In addition, strong low-level convergence was observed to the west of Kyushu in both reanalysis and best performing member forecasts during the time of heavy rainfall, suggesting a potential contributing factor to the record-breaking rainfall.

著者

Sachie Kanada Hidenori Aiki Kazuhisa Tsuboki Izuru Takayabu

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17A, no.Special_Edition, pp.14-20, 2021 (Released:2021-01-28)

参考文献数

37

被引用文献数

8

---

Numerical experiments on Typhoon Trami (2018) using a regional 1-km-mesh three-dimensional atmosphere–ocean coupled model in current and pseudo-global warming (PGW) climates were conducted to investigate future changes of a slow-moving intense typhoon under the warming climate. Over the warmer sea in the PGW climate, the maximum near-surface wind speed rapidly increased around the large eye of the simulated Trami. The stronger winds in the PGW simulation versus the current simulation caused a 1.5-fold larger decrease of sea surface temperature (SST) in the storm core-region. In the PGW climate, near-surface air temperature increased by 3.1°C. A large SST decrease due to ocean upwelling caused downward heat fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean. The magnitude of the SST decrease depended strongly on initial ocean conditions. Consideration of the SST decrease induced by an intense typhoon, and a slow-moving storm in particular, indicated that such a typhoon would not always become more intense under the warmer climate conditions. An atmosphere–ocean coupled model should facilitate making more reliable projections of typhoon intensities in a warming climate.

著者

Le Duc Takuya Kawabata Kazuo Saito Tsutao Oizumi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-007, (Released:2021-01-29)

被引用文献数

15

---

Forecast performances of the July 2020 Kyushu heavy rain have been revisited with the aim of improving the forecasts for this event. While the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) deterministic forecasts were relatively good, the JMA's ensemble forecasts somehow missed this event. Our approach is to introduce flow-dependence into assimilation by running a 1000-member local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF1000) to extract more information from observations and to better quantify forecast uncertainties. To save computational costs, vertical localization is removed in running LETKF1000. Qualitative and quantitative verifications show that the LETKF1000 forecasts outperform the operational forecasts both in deterministic and probabilistic forecasts.Rather than a trick to save computational costs, removal of vertical localization is shown to be the main contribution to the outperformance of LETKF1000. If vertical localization is removed, forecasts with similar performances can be obtained with 100 ensemble members. We hypothesize that running ensemble Kalman filters with around 1000 ensemble members is more effective if vertical localization is removed at the same time. Since this study examines only one case, to assess benefit of removing vertical localization rigorously when the number of ensemble members is around 1000, a larger set of cases needs to be considered in future.

著者

Hiroaki Kawase Akihiko Murata Ken Yamada Tosiyuki Nakaegawa Rui Ito Ryo Mizuta Masaya Nosaka Shunichi Watanabe Hidetaka Sasaki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.1-7, 2021 (Released:2021-01-27)

参考文献数

29

被引用文献数

12

---

We investigate regional characteristics of future changes in snowfall in Japan under two emission scenarios—RCP2.6 and RCP8.5—using a high-resolution regional climate model with 5km grid spacing and discuss the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation. The high-resolution model can simulate details of changes in distributions of total snowfall in Japan. Under RCP2.6, the annual total snowfall decreases in most parts of Japan except for Japan's northern island, Hokkaido. In Hokkaido, the winter snowfall increases even under RCP8.5, especially in January and February. The snowfall peak is delayed from early December to late January in Hokkaido. Along the Sea of Japan in eastern Japan, the winter-total snowfall decreases even if the winter mean temperature is below 0°C in the future climate. The different snowfall changes in Hokkaido and on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan are caused by precipitation changes in each region. Future changes in atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low cause the enhancement and the inhibition of winter precipitation in Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan, respectively, contributing to changes in the regional characteristics of snowfall and snow cover in addition to moistening due to atmospheric and ocean warming.

著者

Katsuya Yamashita Satoru Yamaguchi Takayuki Saito Yuya Yamakura Eiichiro Kanda Sento Nakai Hiroki Motoyoshi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.271-276, 2020 (Released:2020-12-26)

参考文献数

16

---

A system with existing snowfall sensors, which is used to control the operation of the sprinkler snow removal system, was developed to acquire data that can be used to generate snowfall distribution with high spatiotemporal resolution. This had advantages such as low installation and management costs, as well as flexibility with respect to the configuration of its observation points. The results confirmed that this system, developed for experimental purposes in Nagaoka City (Niigata Prefecture), made it possible to generate the snowfall amount distribution as well as the precipitation rate within a 25 km × 30 km area at 10-min intervals based on in-situ measurements conducted at 16 ground-based points. A comparison of the system with other observation systems confirmed that it could detect detailed spatial snowfall variations, which could not be achieved using existing the ground-based observation networks, and provide sufficient observation accuracy for winter road management. Since many snowfall sensors are installed on the Sea of Japan side of mainland of Japan, this system has the potential for extensive application in the snowy areas of Japan characterized by heavy snowfall at temperatures of approximately 0°C.

著者

Kentaroh Suzuki Toshihiko Takemura

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.240-245, 2020 (Released:2020-12-12)

参考文献数

25

被引用文献数

2

---

The apparent hydrological sensitivity, defined as the global-mean precipitation change per increase of the global-mean temperature, is investigated for scenarios induced by different forcing agents. Simulations with a climate model driven individually by four different climate forcers, i.e. sulfate, black carbon, solar insolation and carbon dioxide (CO2), are analyzed in the context of energy balance controls on global precipitation to explore how different forcing agents perturb different energy components grouped into fast and slow responses. Similarities and differences among the forcing agents are found in ingredients of the tendency contributing to the hydrological sensitivity from various energy budget components. Specifically, the sulfate and solar forcings induce the hydrological sensitivity of ∼2.5%K−1 due to the slow response of radiative cooling whereas the black carbon induces a significantly negative hydrological sensitivity (∼−6.0%K−1) due to the strong atmospheric heating. The CO2-induced hydrological sensitivity is found in between (∼1.2%K−1) as a result from the slow response of radiative cooling and its partial compensation by the atmospheric heating. The findings provide a quantitative basis for interpreting climatic changes of global precipitation driven by a mixture of various natural and anthropogenic forcings.

著者

Sho Kawazoe Masaru Inatsu Tomohito J. Yamada Tsuyoshi Hoshino

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.233-239, 2020 (Released:2020-12-05)

参考文献数

30

被引用文献数

11

---

Synoptic circulation patterns associated with heavy snowfall events in Sapporo are examined using large ensemble simulation with 60-km global climate experiments. For snowfall, a 5-km dynamically downscaled model from the 20-km regional simulation is utilized. To identify synoptic circulation patterns, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are applied, and their response to a warming climate is examined. The authors find that heavy snow events predominantly occur due to low pressure anomalies to the north/east of Hokkaido or over central Japan, and by high pressure anomalies over the Siberian continent. The 4 K warming climate shows robust decreases in heavy snowfall amounts associated with low pressure anomalies over central Japan and increases in heavy snowfall amounts under patterns with high pressure anomalies over Siberia. This is attributed to surface air temperature characteristics in future climates, as precipitation in the former with surface winds transporting warm, moist air from the south and east, develops predominantly above 0°C in the +4 K climate, while the latter, often resulting in intense snow band events, continues to be dominated by temperatures near or below zero.

著者

Takashi Sekiya Yugo Kanaya Kengo Sudo Fumikazu Taketani Yoko Iwamoto Maki N. Aita Akitomo Yamamoto Katsuhiro Kawamoto

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.220-227, 2020 (Released:2020-11-25)

参考文献数

52

被引用文献数

6

---

We quantified the global bromine- and iodine-mediated tropospheric ozone loss using global chemical transport model simulations. We tested three datasets of very short-lived substances (VSLS) emissions, three datasets of sea surface iodide concentrations, and an explicit representation of the effects of multi-phase reactions at the air-sea boundary on dry deposition. We then determined optimal model settings based on the evaluation using the ship-borne and aircraft-campaign observations over the ocean. Our evaluation suggested that the explicit representation of multi-phase reaction effects substantially reduced model biases of ozone in the lower troposphere (up to 11%). Moreover, the impacts of using different datasets of VSLS emissions and sea-surface iodide concentrations were relatively small. The global bromine- and iodine-mediated chemical ozone losses were estimated to account for 4% and 17% of the total chemical loss, respectively, while the global iodine-mediated dry deposition loss of ozone was estimated to account for 22% of the global total dry deposition. These bromine- and iodine-mediated ozone losses decreased surface ozone concentrations over the ocean by 10% and 23%, respectively. The observational constraint on model simulations made by this study supports that bromine and iodine substantially impact global tropospheric ozone through atmospheric chemical reactions and dry deposition processes.

著者

Asami Komatsu Kouichi Nishimura

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-041, (Released:2020-11-16)

被引用文献数

1

---

This paper describes a simple snow-cover model (SSCM) that was developed primarily to evaluate the hazard to traffic posed by snow avalanches. The SSCM requires only air temperature and precipitation or snow depth as input data, and we simplified the physical processes that affect the snowpack in the model. Snow pit observations and the calculation for avalanche cases were carried out to verify the SSCM output. The SSCM was able to reproduce the change in the snowpack properties fairly well. Further, the snow stability index, which shows the ratio of shear strength to shear stress in the snow, indicated that the SSCM can be used to provide a reliable estimate of avalanche hazard.

著者

Kentaroh Suzuki Toshihiko Takemura

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-040, (Released:2020-11-09)

被引用文献数

2

---

The apparent hydrological sensitivity, defined as the global-mean precipitation change per increase of the global-mean temperature, is investigated for scenarios induced by different forcing agents. Simulations with a climate model driven individually by four different climate forcers, i.e. sulfate, black carbon, solar insolation and carbon dioxide (CO2), are analyzed in the context of energy balance controls on global precipitation to explore how different forcing agents perturb different energy components grouped into fast and slow responses. Similarities and differences among the forcing agents are found in ingredients of the tendency contributing to the hydrological sensitivity from various energy budget components. Specifically, the sulfate and solar forcings induce the hydrological sensitivity of ∼3.0%K−1 due to the slow response of radiative cooling whereas the black carbon induces a significantly negative hydrological sensitivity (∼−6.0%K−1) due to the strong atmospheric heating. The CO2-induced hydrological sensitivity is found in between (∼1.2%K−1) as a result from the slow response of radiative cooling and its partial compensation by the atmospheric heating. The findings provide a quantitative basis for interpreting climatic changes of global precipitation driven by a mixture of various natural and anthropogenic forcings.

著者

Hiroshi G. Takahashi Takuya Yamazaki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-035, (Released:2020-09-30)

被引用文献数

2

---

This study investigated the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on a snowfall event of late January 2018 on Kanto, Honshu, Japan, associated with an extratropical cyclone (south-coast cyclone) along the Pacific side, during the Kuroshio large meandering period by a regional atmospheric model. We addressed SST impacts on the snowfall event under almost the same synoptic-scale conditions, such as extratropical cyclone, in a framework of lateral boundary forcing. We conducted control experiments (KLM) with SST of the Kuroshio large mean-dering, and sensitivity experiments (NKLM) prescribed non-Kuroshio large meandering SSTs. Observational results showed that SST anomalies south of Tokai, and east of northern Kanto and Tohoku could be candidates to modify a snowfall event. As simulated results, timings of snowfall and precipitation associated with the extratropical cyclone was reproduced. Unlike what has been suggested, the SST impact south of Tokai on snowfall was not clear. However, the SST east of northern Kanto and Tohoku showed a significant impact. This impact was explained by southward advection of modified air-mass from east of northern Kanto and Tohoku. Additional sensitivity experiments supported this result. This study implies the importance of the SST anomaly east of northern Kanto and Tohoku for snowfall in Tokyo.

著者

Hyunuk Kim Baek-Jo Kim Hyoung-Gu Nam Jonghyeok Jeong Jae-Kwan Shim Kyu Rang Kim Seungbum Kim

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.180-184, 2020 (Released:2020-10-17)

参考文献数

22

---

Strong winds are one of the several factors contributing to natural disasters. Although in recent years, the intensity and frequency of strong winds has decreased, different areas are differently affected by such winds; these winds still have the potential to cause adverse impacts on life and property. In Korea, strong winds are also responsible for the incidence of increased number of accidents and forest fires. Therefore, in this study, relationship between wind speed and damage was analyzed, and the threshold value of damage-causing wind speed was estimated. We first analyzed the relationship between wind speed and damage occurrences based on the daily maximum wind speed and daily maximum instantaneous wind speed data, and data on damage related to strong winds. Second, we examined the validity regarding the regional segmentation of the Korean criteria of special weather report for strong winds using the critical success index and cumulative percentile distributions to estimate the damage-causing threshold value for each region. We found that damage resulting from very strong wind speeds in Korea had not occurred in recent times. In addition, considerable damage had occurred because of low-speed wind compared to the current criteria for high wind advisory. However, the incidence of damage was higher when wind speed was stronger than the current criteria for high wind advisory. Based on threshold estimation, the study areas were categorized into areas with high threshold values (coastal, mountainous, and island), and those with low threshold values (inland areas). A notable difference was observed between the threshold values of the two categories of areas. This necessitated the regional segmentation of the criteria of special weather report on strong winds.

著者

Takashi Sekiya Yugo Kanaya Kengo Sudo Fumikazu Taketani Yoko Iwamoto Maki N. Aita Akitomo Yamamoto Katsuhiro Kawamoto

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-037, (Released:2020-10-15)

被引用文献数

6

---

We quantified the global bromine- and iodine-mediated tropospheric ozone loss using global chemical transport model simulations. We tested three datasets of very short-lived substances (VSLS) emissions, three datasets of sea surface iodide concentrations, and an explicit representation of the effects of multi-phase reactions at the air-sea boundary on dry deposition. We then determined optimal model settings based on the evaluation using the ship-borne and aircraft-campaign observations over the ocean. Our evaluation suggested that the explicit representation of multi-phase reaction effects substantially reduced model biases of ozone in the lower troposphere (up to 11%). Moreover, the impacts of using different datasets of VSLS emissions and sea-surface iodide concentrations were relatively small. The global bromine- and iodine-mediated chemical ozone losses were estimated to account for 4% and 17% of the total chemical loss, respectively, while the global iodine-mediated dry deposition loss of ozone was estimated to account for 22% of the global total dry deposition. These bromine- and iodine-mediated ozone losses decreased surface ozone concentrations over the ocean by 10% and 23%, respectively. The observational constraint on model simulations made by this study supports that bromine and iodine substantially impact global tropospheric ozone through atmospheric chemical reactions and dry deposition processes.

著者

Hyunuk Kim Baek-Jo Kim Hyoung-Gu Nam Jonghyeok Jeong Jae-Kwan Shim Kyu Rang Kim Seungbum Kim

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-031, (Released:2020-10-02)

---

Strong winds are one of the several factors contributing to natural disasters. Although in recent years, the intensity and frequency of strong winds has decreased, different areas are differently affected by such winds; these winds still have the potential to cause adverse impacts on life and property. In Korea, strong winds are also responsible for the incidence of increased number of accidents and forest fires. Therefore, in this study, relationship between wind speed and damage was analyzed, and the threshold value of damage-causing wind speed was estimated. We first analyzed the relationship between wind speed and damage occurrences based on the daily maximum wind speed and daily maximum instantaneous wind speed data, and data on damage related to strong winds. Second, we examined the validity regarding the regional segmentation of the Korean criteria of special weather report for strong winds using the critical success index and cumulative percentile distributions to estimate the damage-causing threshold value for each region. We found that damage resulting from very strong wind speeds in Korea had not occurred in recent times. In addition, considerable damage had occurred because of low-speed wind compared to the current criteria for high wind advisory. However, the incidence of damage was higher when wind speed was stronger than the current criteria for high wind advisory. Based on threshold estimation, the study areas were categorized into areas with high threshold values (coastal, mountainous, and island), and those with low threshold values (inland areas). A notable difference was observed between the threshold values of the two categories of areas. This necessitated the regional segmentation of the criteria of special weather report on strong winds.

著者

Ha Pham-Thanh Thanh Ngo-Duc Jun Matsumoto Tan Phan-Van Hoa Vo-Van

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.169-174, 2020 (Released:2020-09-17)

参考文献数

21

被引用文献数

9

---

This study investigated rainfall trends and their associations with tropical cyclones (TCs) during the period of 1979-2019, using TC best-track data from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo - Typhoon Center and daily rainfall data from 138 meteorological stations in Vietnam. The radius of influence of TCs on local rainfall was limited to 500 km from TC centers. The average annual number of TCs affecting Vietnam has decreased slightly in the last two decades compared to previous decades. The ratio of TC-induced rainfall to total rainfall attained the highest value of 37.3% in the central region, in July. The temporal distribution of TC-induced rainfall coincided with the frequency of TCs, with an active period from June to November. During 1979-2019, the non-TC rainfall was the main contributor to the change in total rainfall, especially in relation to the decline in the north and the increase in the coastal South Central region. The rainfall trend during the entire period was principally explained by the interdecadal shift in the late 1990s. Rainfall intensity and the number of heavy rainfall days were intensified for total rainfall and non-TC rainfall, indicating that TCs contributed minimally to the changes of extreme rainfall events during 1979-2019.

著者

Narihiro Orikasa Atsushi Saito Katsuya Yamashita Takuya Tajiri Yuji Zaizen Tzu-Hsien Kuo Wei-Chen Kuo Masataka Murakami

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-036, (Released:2020-09-23)

被引用文献数

2

---

Since March 2012, multi-year ground-based observation of atmospheric aerosol particles has been carried out in Tsukuba, Japan to characterize the aerosol particle number concentrations (NCs), air mass origin relevance, and specifically, their cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleating particle (INP) characteristics. The CCN NCs at any water supersaturation (SS) exhibit strong seasonality, being higher in winter and lower in summer; this pattern is similar in the polluted urban environment in East Asia and contrary to that in the Pacific coastal region. The hygroscopicity (κ) is generally high in early autumn and low in early summer, likely due to the seasonal difference of synoptic-scale systems. In contrast, the INP NCs and ice nucleation active surface site density (ns) at defined temperature (−15 to −35°C) and SS (0%-5%) lack clear seasonal influence. The average INP NCs and ns in this study were comparable at warmer temperatures and approximately one order of magnitude lower at colder temperatures, compared with those in other urban locations under limited dust impact. Moreover, the ns values were one to four orders of magnitude lower and exhibited weaker temperature dependence than previous parameterizations on mineral dust particles.

著者

Ha Pham-Thanh Thanh Ngo-Duc Jun Matsumoto Tan Phan-Van Hoa Vo-Van

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-029, (Released:2020-08-11)

被引用文献数

9

---

This study investigated rainfall trends and their associations with tropical cyclones (TCs) during the period of 1979-2019, using TC best-track data from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo - Typhoon Center and daily rainfall data from 138 meteorological stations in Vietnam. The radius of influence of TCs on local rainfall was limited to 500 km from TC centers. The average annual number of TCs affecting Vietnam has decreased slightly in the last two decades compared to previous decades. The ratio of TC-induced rainfall to total rainfall attained the highest value of 37.3% in the central region, in July. The temporal distribution of TC-induced rainfall coincided with the frequency of TCs, with an active period from June to November. During 1979-2019, the non-TC rainfall was the main contributor to the change in total rainfall, especially in relation to the decline in the north and the increase in the coastal South Central region. The rainfall trend during the entire period was principally explained by the interdecadal shift in the late 1990s. Rainfall intensity and the number of heavy rainfall days were intensified for total rainfall and non-TC rainfall, indicating that TCs contributed minimally to the changes of extreme rainfall events during 1979-2019.

著者

Fumiaki Fujibe

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-030, (Released:2020-08-25)

被引用文献数

8

---

Japan underwent a nationwide self-restraint of human activities in spring 2020 to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 infection. In order to evaluate the effect of suppressed human activities on temperature in the Tokyo Metropolitan area, a statistical analysis was made for temperature anomalies during the self-restraint period using hourly data on the AMeDAS network. The temperature anomaly was defined by the departure from the value that would have been observed without self-restraint, estimated from regression analysis for temperatures at surrounding non-urban stations. It was found that the temperature in central Tokyo (Kitanomaru Park) had a negative anomaly of −0.49°C with a 95% confidence range of ±0.19°C on the average over the strong self-restraint period from April to May. The anomaly was larger in the nighttime than in the daytime, and was found in an area spreading for several tens of kilometers, with a decreasing magnitude according to the distance from Tokyo. These facts indicate a possibility that the reduction of anthropogenic heat release during the self-restraint period resulted in substantial decrease of temperature in the Tokyo Metropolitan area.

著者

Kozo Okamoto Hiromi Owada Tadashi Fujita Masahiro Kazumori Michiko Otsuka Hiromu Seko Yoshifumi Ota Naotaka Uekiyo Hiroshi Ishimoto Masahiro Hayashi Haruma Ishida Akiyoshi Ando Masaya Takahashi Kotaro Bessho Hironobu Yokota

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-028, (Released:2020-07-10)

被引用文献数

14

---

To discuss the feasibility of the Himawari follow-on program, impacts of a hyperspectral sounder on a geostationary satellite (GeoHSS) is assessed using an observing system simulation experiment. Hypothetical GeoHSS observations are simulated by using an accurate reanalysis dataset for a heavy rainfall event in western Japan in 2018. The global data assimilation experiment demonstrates that the assimilation of clear-sky radiances of the GeoHSS improves the forecasts of the representative meteorological field and slightly reduces the typhoon position error. The regional data assimilation experiment shows that assimilating temperature and relative humidity profiles derived from the GeoHSS improves the heavy rainfall in the Chugoku region of western Japan as a result of enhanced southwesterly moisture flow off the northwestern coast of the Kyushu Island. These results suggest that the GeoHSS provides valuable information on frequently available vertically resolved temperature and humidity and thus improves the forecasts of severe events.

著者

Keita Fujiwara Ryuichi Kawamura Tetsuya Kawano

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-026, (Released:2020-07-03)

被引用文献数

5

---

This study investigated the remote impact of an increase in latent heat flux (LHF) over the Kuroshio on tropical cyclone (TC) development, using a cloud-resolving model. A control run and a sensitivity experiment with Kuroshio's LHF artificially enhanced were performed for Typhoon Chaba in 2010. The TC development simulated in the sensitivity experiment was suppressed as compared with the control run. The sensitivity experiment demonstrated that eyewall convection and the associated TC secondary circulation were suppressed by a decrease in equivalent potential temperature (θe) around the eyewall through the lower θe penetration into the inner core region in the boundary layer. The dynamic features of the TC were also altered by the attenuated TC secondary circulation through the inhibition of the inward advection of the absolute angular momentum. The super-gradient tangential velocities in the inner core were smaller than those in the control run. Such thermodynamic and dynamic changes were remotely induced by the decrease in moisture import from the Kuroshio. Since the increased LHF facilitated the development of a surface low over the Kuroshio, the intensified low further accumulated the Kuroshio's vapor and suppressed low-level northeasterlies toward the TC, resulting in interrupting the moisture import into the TC.