著者

Sachie Kanada Akira Nishii

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.70-77, 2023 (Released:2023-04-19)

参考文献数

18

被引用文献数

2

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Ground-based radar observations of the concentric eyewalls (CEs) of supertyphoon Hinnamnor (2022) showed that CEs evolved as follows: (Stage 0) development of a distinct stationary band complex (SBC) downshear in moderate south-southeastward vertical wind shear (VWS), (Stage 1) maturity of the secondary eyewall (SE), (Stage 2) contraction of the SE, and (Stage 3) decay of the CE structures. From Stage 0 to Stage 1, the SBCs transitioned into an axisymmetric SE, and moats appeared a few hours after SE formation. Outer rainbands formed successively in the down-to-left shear quadrants and developed wide stratiform regions with a vast anvil cloud extending outward as they moved upshear. When the anvil cloud covered the right-shear quadrants, the stratiform regions started contracting. Evolutions of the doppler velocity fields were detected under the anvil and stratiform regions of each rainband. An intense convection developed at the inner edge of the contracting SE as regions with relatively high doppler-velocity merged. When the core region was surrounded by multiple well-developed rainbands, the inner eyewall weakened rapidly. The radar observations revealed the importance of moderate-to-weak VWS and development of a SE as a rainband complex during evolution of CEs.

著者

Takeshi Horinouchi Taiga Mitsuyuki

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2023-008, (Released:2023-03-10)

被引用文献数

1

---

The use of massive sailing ships has been proposed as a means of acquiring renewable energy. It has also been proposed that such ships can be used to reduce the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). Here we propose a basis for evaluating the dynamical impacts of numerous sailing ships on the atmosphere. The key parameter is the total sail area per unit horizontal area (referred to as β), which is proportional to the number of ships in the region of interest. From β, the enhancement in the effective surface drag can be evaluated. The maximum potential intensity theory for TCs predicts that, under ideal environmental conditions, the steady-state TC intensity decreases inversely to the drag enhancement if the ship-induced change in the effective enthalpy transfer is much weaker. For example, if β is 0.04%, the potential intensity in terms of squared maximum wind can be decreased by around 10%. The effect of the directional drag from the use of aerodynamic lift in sail operations is also formulated, and its impact on TCs is evaluated by using a slab boundary-layer approximation. Sails' effects on air-sea interaction are briefly discussed, and further studies needed are envisioned.

著者

ISHIDA Junichi ARANAMI Kohei KAWANO Kohei MATSUBAYASHI Kengo KITAMURA Yuji MUROI Chiashi

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-043, (Released:2022-07-07)

被引用文献数

11

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The non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ASUCA developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) was launched into operation as 2 and 5 km-resolution regional models in 2015 and 2017, respectively. This paper outlines specifications of ASUCA with focus on the dynamical core and its configuration/accuracy as an operational model. ASUCA is designed for high computational stability and efficiency, mass conservation and forecast accuracy. High computational stability is achieved via a time-split integration scheme to compute acoustic terms and an advection scheme with a flux-limiter function to avoid numerical oscillation. In addition, vertical advection and sedimentation are calculated together with another exclusive time-splitting technique. ASUCA adopts hybrid parallelization using Message Passing Interface (MPI) and Open Multi Processing (OpenMP) for high computational efficiency on massive parallel scalar computers. The three-dimensional arrays are allocated such that the vertical direction is the stride-one innermost dimension to make effective use of cache and multi-thread parallelization. This is particularly advantageous for physical processes evaluated in a vertical column. To ensure mass conservation, density rather than pressure is integrated as a prognostic variable in flux-form fully compressible governing equations. ASUCA exhibited better performance than the previous operational model in idealized and NWP tests.

著者

Anu Gupta Jun Matsumoto

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.211-217, 2022 (Released:2022-09-28)

参考文献数

19

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This study investigated the spatial and temporal modulation of aerosol species by monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations from 2003 to 2019. The climatological spatial distribution of aerosol species showed long-range transport of sea-salt and dust to Indian landmass from the Arabian Sea and desert regions of the Arabian Peninsula, respectively. While organic matter, black carbon, and sulfate originated mainly in India. In the eight MISO phases, southwesterly/westerly strengthening/weakening was responsible for aerosol species transport and spatial distribution. During MISO break to active transition phases 2-5, strong southwest monsoon winds transported sea-salt aerosols from the Arabian Sea to the Indian region. In the active-to-break transition phases 5-7, dust transport strengthened from the Arabian Peninsula. The dust aerosols over the Indian subcontinent peaked in phases 6 and 7. In phases 2-5 (6-8, 1), direction of strong winds along the Indo-Gangetic Plain influenced increased levels of organic matter, sulfate, and black carbon aerosols in the western/northwestern (eastern/northeastern) regions of India. These dynamic spatial changes in aerosols caused by MISO over the Indian region influence the shortwave and longwave radiation balances that can influence monsoon circulation.

著者

Amane Nakamura Tsubasa Kohyama

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.236-242, 2022 (Released:2022-10-31)

参考文献数

18

---

Analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena has conventionally been performed using deviations from the mean. However, the question remains as to whether the mean is appropriate as the reference state, since it is sensitive to the existence of a few extreme events. In this study, the validity of the mean and mode as a reference is compared using an idealized simulation model. We show that the mode is not affected by the asymmetry of El Niño and La Niña and is more stable as a reference than the mean. Then, this result is also demonstrated using observed data. Observations also show that the relationship between the ENSO amplitude and the zonal shifts of the ENSO anomalies is more emphasized if the mode is employed. For the variables in the ocean interior, differences between the mode-based and mean-based methods appear throughout all seasons.

著者

KODAMA Shinichi SATOH Masaki

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-046, (Released:2022-08-03)

被引用文献数

6

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During the autumn rainy season, typhoons located far from Japan sometimes cause significant precipitation in Japan. In this study, we characterized remote precipitation events in September for 40 years from 1980 to 2019. We also analyzed cases in which remote precipitation did not occur despite approaching typhoons, as well as cases in which heavy precipitation was not affected by typhoons. We characterized the environmental fields of the remote precipitation cases by comparing them with these other two types of cases. Statistical analysis showed that remote precipitation tended to occur when the typhoons were located over the southern or southwestern oceans of mainland Japan and when the tracks of the typhoons were northward or changing to the northeast. The composite analysis of the remote precipitation cases showed that the subtropical high was retreating to the east for the two days before the remote precipitation. By contrast, the cases in which remote precipitation did not occur showed the opposite pattern: the subtropical high was strengthening to the west when typhoons were approaching over the southern or southwestern oceans of the Japanese archipelago. Furthermore, the remote precipitation occurred to the equatorward jet streak entrance of the 200 hPa jet, whereas the 200 hPa jet streak was shifted to the west in the cases where remote precipitation did not occur. The vertical cross-section of the northward water vapor flux showed that the northward water vapor inflow from the middle troposphere was larger in cases of remote precipitation than in cases in which heavy precipitation was not caused by typhoons. In addition, dynamical analysis showed that the area of remote precipitation corresponded to the region of 800-600 hPa mean quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent and 925 hPa frontogenesis.

著者

Takashi Maki Taichu Y. Tanaka Tsuyoshi Koshiro Atsushi Shimizu Tsuyoshi T. Sekiyama Mizuo Kajino Yasunori Kurosaki Toshiya Okuro Naga Oshima

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-035, (Released:2022-09-06)

被引用文献数

1

---

Ensemble future climate projections were performed using the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) for sand and dust storms (SDS), which have a significant social, economic, and climatic impact on East Asia. A past replication experiment using MRI-ESM2.0 reproduced the decreasing trend of SDS in the Gobi Desert in the early 21st century. Prediction experiments by MRI_ESM2.0 in CMIP6 future scenarios indicated no significant differences in the total amount of SDS emissions in the Gobi Desert for 2015-2100; however, SDS emissions increased with warmer scenarios in spring and autumn. In particular, March in the highest warming scenario (SSP5-8.5) exhibited an annual increase rate in SDS emissions of 3.0% for 2015-2100. Friction velocity was the factor most highly correlated with SDS emissions, with a correlation generally higher than 0.6 for all climate scenarios throughout the year. In spring and autumn, snow cover exhibited a low negative correlation with SDS emissions, while ground temperature exhibited a positive correlation. The increase in SDS emissions and subsequent dust transport by midlatitude westerlies in spring and autumn in the accelerated warming scenarios is likely due to the changes in friction velocity and erodibility due to the decrease in snow accumulation.

著者

Masashi Niwano Masami Suya Koichi Nagaya Satoru Yamaguchi Sumito Matoba Ikuo Harada Nozomu Ohkawara

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.193-198, 2022 (Released:2022-09-07)

参考文献数

34

被引用文献数

2

---

Despite the importance of seasonal snow in Japan, quantitative information on seasonal snow mass in the whole area is lacking. To understand the current mass balance of seasonal snow cover, we develop a method to quantify the mass balance of seasonal snow all over Japan using the Japan Meteorological Agency's operational regional atmospheric model, Local Forecast Model (LFM), as well as the snow physics model, Snow Metamorphism and Albedo Process (SMAP). Our model simulations using the LFM-SMAP model chain show that the seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) evolution is mostly controlled by snowfall and runoff. It is estimated that the seasonal peak area-integrated SWE in Japan reaches 42.2 Gt on average during the 2017-2022 winters, and 60.1 Gt (+43% with respect to the average) and 22.0 Gt (−48%) during relatively heavy (2017-2018) and relatively light (2019-2020) snow years, respectively. The ratios between seasonal peak area-integrated SWE and winter-accumulated (November to February) snowfall amounts for the heavy, average, and light snow years are 83%, 74%, and 59%, respectively.

著者

Takehiko Kobori Masayuki Maki Yasushi Fujiyoshi Masato Iguchi Seiji Fukushima

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-037, (Released:2022-09-09)

被引用文献数

1

---

We developed a method for estimating the height and growth rate of volcanic eruption columns, at high-temporal resolution, by processing vertical cross-sectional images of areas around the crater obtained with a marine radar tilted on its side. We applied our method to 127 eruptions occurring at Sakurajima (Kagoshima, Japan) from June to December 2019 and successfully estimated the time-series height of the eruption column and its growth rate every 2.5 seconds. In 48 cases, we obtained the maximum height of the eruption column and confirmed that these results were consistent with those estimated using meteorological radar. Although the maximum height estimated with our method tended to be lower than that observed by monitoring cameras, results could be obtained even when observations were difficult due to cloud effects, etc.

著者

Keita Fujiwara Ryuichi Kawamura

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.181-186, 2022 (Released:2022-08-31)

参考文献数

32

被引用文献数

2

---

This study investigated a recent tendency of interannual precipitation variations during the Baiu season (June–July) in southern Kyushu, Japan. Long-term satellite precipitation observations revealed a significant amplification of the interannual variability of Baiu precipitation after the beginning of this century and the appearance of a quasi-quadrennial variation (QQV). Composite analyses with respect to the unstable regime of Baiu activity when the QQV prevailed suggested a possible link between the Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor (IPOC) mode and the QQV. Regression analyses with an IPOC index showed the dominance of an anomalous anticyclone in the lower troposphere centered over the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea and enhanced poleward moisture transport along its western periphery. The interdecadal shift in remote IPOC influence seen around the year 2000 featured the westward (northward) extension of the low-level anomalous anticyclone toward the Bay of Bengal (southern Japan); consequently, the significant moisture flux convergence area covered southern Kyushu during the unstable Baiu regime, consistent with the QQV appearance during the same period. It is also inferred that the IPOC mode modulation may come from the increased impact of central Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the IPOC in recent decades.

著者

Masashi Niwano Masami Suya Koichi Nagaya Satoru Yamaguchi Sumito Matoba Ikuo Harada Nozomu Ohkawara

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-031, (Released:2022-08-11)

被引用文献数

2

---

Despite the importance of seasonal snow in Japan, quantitative information on seasonal snow mass in the whole area is lacking. To understand the current mass balance of seasonal snow cover, we develop a method to quantify the mass balance of seasonal snow all over Japan using the Japan Meteorological Agency's operational regional atmospheric model, Local Forecast Model (LFM), as well as the snow physics model, Snow Metamorphism and Albedo Process (SMAP). Our model simulations using the LFM-SMAP model chain show that the seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) evolution is mostly controlled by snowfall and runoff. It is estimated that the seasonal peak area-integrated SWE in Japan reaches 42.2 Gt on average during the 2017-2022 winters, and 60.1 Gt (+43% with respect to the average) and 22.0 Gt (−48%) during relatively heavy (2017-2018) and relatively light (2019-2020) snow years, respectively. The ratios between seasonal peak area-integrated SWE and winter-accumulated (November to February) snowfall amounts for the heavy, average, and light snow years are 83%, 74%, and 59%, respectively.

著者

Yasutaka Hirockawa Teruyuki Kato

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-027, (Released:2022-06-23)

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The procedures for identifying and classifying heavy rainfall areas of linear-stationary type (LS-HRAs) from the distributions of radar/raingauge-analyzed precipitation amounts (RAP) were improved to extract “senjo-kousuitai” with elongated and stagnant characteristics that causes localized heavy rainfall in Japan. The improved procedures were verified based on subjective judgments (‘certainty’, ‘doubtful’, and “suspect’) whether LS-HRAs possess the characteristics of typical senjo-kousuitai. Criteria for excluding LS-HRAs judged to be ‘suspect’, mainly associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) and non-stationary mesoscale convective systems, were introduced to optimally extract senjo-kousuitai events. The criteria were determined by the distance between LS-HRAs and TC centers (DLT), the maximum total RAP of LS-HRA (total RAP), and the properties of each RAP distribution at every hour during the LS-HRA extraction period, e.g., DLT ≤ 500 km and total RAP < 200 mm. By applying these criteria, 372 senjo-kousuitai events were extracted from 452 LS-HRAs during the warm seasons (April–November) in 2009-2020, although approximately 35% of the LS-HRAs judged to be ‘suspect’ were not excluded. The criteria associated with TCs excluded them more effectively than the other factors. The improved procedures for extracting senjo-kousuitai events are expected to be used effectively for their statistical analyses.

著者

Michiya Hayashi Hideo Shiogama

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.96-103, 2022 (Released:2022-05-17)

参考文献数

47

被引用文献数

3

---

The technique for composing a small subset of global climate models is critical to provide climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies of regional climate changes. A recent study developed a novel statistical method for selecting a mini-ensemble of five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 for widely capturing different future projections of Japanese climate across eight atmospheric variables at the surface. However, it remains unclear which mini-ensemble model contributes to efficiently covering the full projection ranges. Here, we rank each mini-ensemble projection around Japan among a full ensemble, showing that the selected five models capture the full ranges without systematic biases, except for relative humidity. Furthermore, we find that the widespread global warming level contributes to covering well the projection uncertainties in the daily-mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures and downward longwave radiation but not in precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, or wind speed. As the last four variables are sensitive to various factors, such as large-scale circulation and aerosol-forcing changes, rather than global-mean temperature changes, the model selection method featured here is preferable for capturing the wide future projection ranges in Japan.

著者

長谷川 謙

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

氣象集誌. 第1輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.37, no.6, pp.203-207, 1918-06-10 (Released:2009-02-05)

被引用文献数

7

著者

Yousuke Yamashita Hideharu Akiyoshi Makoto Inoue

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.19B-002, (Released:2023-10-18)

---

The dynamical response of the southern hemisphere stratosphere to the ocean-surface conditions in 2002 and 2019, when exceptional sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events occurred, was examined through the chemistry–climate model and experiments with 1,000 ensemble members using the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice conditions. Planetary waves propagating from the troposphere to the stratosphere in experiments using the ocean-surface conditions in 2002 and 2019 were markedly enhanced compared to those in experiments using climatological ocean conditions, owing to the enhancement of the zonal wavenumber-2 component in August 2002 and the wavenumber-1 component from August to November 2019. The distribution function from the ensemble members of the Antarctic polar-vortex intensity shifted to a weaker side in the 2002 and 2019 experiments relative to that of the climatological ocean conditions. The planetary wave propagation to the stratosphere was more enhanced in 2019 than in 2002 from austral winter to spring. This result is consistent with the weakening of the Antarctic polar-vortex intensity in the 2019 experiment relative to the 2002 experiment. These results suggest that the SSWs in 2002 and 2019 are closely related to the ocean surface conditions in these years through wave propagation in the troposphere and stratosphere.

著者

Takashi Unuma Hiroshi Yamauchi Akihito Umehara Teruyuki Kato

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2023-020, (Released:2023-06-09)

被引用文献数

1

---

We investigated the microphysical mechanisms for the enhancement of rainfall in a precipitating system that spawned heavy rainfall over the central part of the Kanto Plain in eastern Japan on 12 July 2022. Optical disdrometer observations confirmed the existence of an equilibrium state in the raindrop size distribution, especially when the precipitation intensity was high (e.g., 20 mm hr−1). As the raindrop size distribution approached equilibrium, raindrop sizes centered around 1.5 mm were observed initially, and then the number concentration of smaller and larger size raindrops increased simultaneously. The raindrop size distribution was closely related to the vertical profile of the parameters of raindrop size distribution that were estimated from polarimetric radar observations. These results suggest that the formation of equilibrium raindrop size distributions is important to produce substantial rainfall in the midlatitude as well as in the tropics.

著者

Naoko Kosaka Yusuke Umemiya Naoto Endou Tsuneko Kura Hiroshi Matsubara Masaki Hisada Akinori Murata Satoshi Mitarai

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2023-016, (Released:2023-05-22)

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This paper presents experimental observations to improve typhoon prediction accuracy and to understand interactions between atmosphere and ocean directly under typhoons. Two unmanned surface vehicles (Wave Gliders (WGs)) equipped with interchangeable sensors were sailed toward the path of an approaching Category 5 typhoon (Hinnamnor), which began on 29 August 2022 and subsided on 6 September, reaching a minimum pressure of 920 hPa and a maximum wind speed of 55 m/s (105 knots). Sensors on WGs measured atmospheric pressure, wind speed, atmospheric and seawater temperature, wave height, currents, salinity, and chlorophyll-a concentrations in different parts of the typhoon. These observations made it possible to clarify changes in various phenomena as the typhoon approached and to compare differences in storm characteristics measured by the two WGs. Sea surface pressure in the core of a typhoon is useful as an initial predictor of its intensity. Data assimilation into numerical models and other observations are expected to improve prediction accuracy of typhoon phenomena. Furthermore, simultaneous observations of atmosphere and ocean will also be useful for modeling interactions.

著者

Ken Sawada Naoko Seino Takuya Kawabata Hiromu Seko

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19B, no.Special_Edition, pp.1-8, 2023 (Released:2023-03-10)

参考文献数

23

---

Considering urbanization effects on atmospheric states and subsequent precipitation is crucial to improve the accuracy of forecasting localized heavy rainfall around urban areas and to mitigate related disasters. For this purpose, it is effective to use a time development model that can accurately represent city-specific effects, such as urban heat island effect, in the assimilation process, and to assimilate high-frequency/high-density surface observation data that have not been used thus far. Therefore, this study incorporated a forecast model with an urban canopy scheme into an ensemble-based assimilation system and assimilated dense surface data from an Atmospheric Environmental Regional Observation System. Then, we performed analysis-forecast experiments for a heavy rain event in Tokyo metropolitan area on 30 August 2017, to examine the impact of urbanization. Our results showed that the urban scheme and surface observation improved near-surface temperature and moisture fields, thereby contributing to the formation of a clearer convergence line between the easterly and southerly winds where it was observed. Consequently, these improvements resulted in an earlier onset of rainfall and better reproduction of the heavy rainfall distribution.

著者

Masaki Satoh Keisuke Hosotani

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19A, no.Special_Edition, pp.1-8, 2023 (Released:2023-02-10)

参考文献数

19

被引用文献数

1

---

A sequence of heavy rainfall events due to quasi-stationary band-shaped precipitation systems, or “senjo-kousuitai“, was observed in the Kyushu region, Japan, from 3 to 8 July 2020. In this study, we investigate two of six indices that have previously been used to determine conditions favorable for senjo-kousuitai, i.e., water vapor flux at the height of 500 m and storm-relative environmental helicity. We examine the relationship between these indices and the occurrence of senjo-kousuitai over the past 20 years using the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year reanalysis data. We show that the anomaly in wind speeds rather than humidity contributes more to anomalous water vapor flux. The vertical shear of zonal winds and the meridional flow in the lower layer contribute more to the storm-relative environmental helicity. We conducted 20-member ensemble experiments with a 14 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) for the senjo-kousuitai event. We found that the initial variabilities of the water vapor over the area stretching from the East China Sea to the South China Sea and the wind fields over the western periphery of the North Pacific High are sensitive to the water vapor flux over the senjo-kousuitai area in Kyushu.

著者

Yuta Tamaki Sosuke Okubo Kei Horie

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.243-248, 2022 (Released:2022-11-18)

参考文献数

41

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We examined forty-five typhoons associated with insurance losses in Japan to explicitly describe typhoon-related variables that explain insurance-loss variations. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the combination of maximum wind speed and translation speed explained more of the variation in insurance-loss size than what the regression model with maximum wind speed alone did. Using maximum wind speed and gale-area radius as explanatory variables also slightly improved the explained variance, but it was less stable than the multiple regression model combining maximum wind speed and translation speed. The translation speed suggested an inland expansion of the strong-wind area associated with wind-speed asymmetry, while considering the exposure led to similar conclusions. Our regression model can be applied to estimate changes in the damage and uncertainty by adjusting the typhoon characteristics under multiple climate-change scenarios.