3 0 0 0 OA デイトン合意後のボスニアにおける選挙と民族問題
- 著者
- 久保 慶一
- 出版者
- ロシア・東欧学会
- 雑誌
- ロシア・東欧研究 (ISSN:13486497)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.2002, no.31, pp.73-90, 2002 (Released:2010-05-31)
- 参考文献数
- 37
In the Dayton Agreement, the engagement of the international community in Bosnia was originally supposed to last only for a year and to come to a close after the elections in 1996, turning over the responsibilities to the new governments. In reality, however, the international community has been continuing, or even intensifying its engagement after the general elections. Why has the international community continued its engagement? As an answer to this question, the present article points out that the elections and the establishment of new governments have not resulted in the autonomous political stability in Bosnia, but actually lead to the political instability. The present paper attempts to demonstrate it by examining the Bosnian case from two viewpoints: (1) stateness problem, and (2) problems with the institutionalization of ethnic power-sharing.The stateness problem occurs when “there are profound differences about the territorial boundaries of the political community's state and profound differences as to who has the right of citizenship in that state.” As Linz and Stepan pointed out, democracy is impossible until the stateness problem is resolved. In Bosnian case, the stateness problem occurred in 1991-1992 when Muslims and Croats wanted the independence of Bosnia, while Serbs opposed it and attempted to secede from Bosnia in order to join the Third Yugoslavia. Even though the Dayton Agreement achieved a compromise, it was far from the resolution of the stateness problem. The differences of the conceptions of the state persisted even after the Dayton Agreement, especially between Bosniaks and Serbs. This is one reason why the elections have not lead to the political stability in Bosnia, since the ethnic parties continued to be elected to the public offices, and they kept putting the stateness problem on the political agenda.Another reason why the elections have not lead to the political stability is related to the institutionalization of the ethnic power-sharing in Bosnia. In Bosnia, the political system based on the consociational model was introduced by the Dayton Agreement, acknowledging the three ethnic groups as “constituent nations” and introducing equal representation and mutual veto system of these nations. However, the introduction of a consociational type of ethnic power-sharing has not lead to the political stability in Bosnia, firstly because it has led to the ineffectiveness of the political system, and secondly because it has given centrifugal incentives to the politicians, inducing them to act as a representative of their respective ethnic group and to take a tough stance against representatives of other ethnic groups.These are two reasons why the elections have not lead to the autonomous political stability in Bosnia. This is why the international community has been continuing its engagement: it has been necessary to secure a minimum stability for Bosnia. In order for Bosnia to achieve the autonomous political stability, the two problems pointed out in the present article must be resolved. It remains to be seen whether - and how -the resolution of these two problems would be possible.
2 0 0 0 OA <特集>比較政治学における因果推論
- 著者
- 久保 慶一
- 出版者
- 早稻田大學政治經濟學會
- 雑誌
- 早稻田政治經濟學雜誌 (ISSN:02877007)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.392, pp.11-17, 2017-09-30
2 0 0 0 凍るシャボン玉の実験と地域貢献活動(<特集>北海道支部)
- 著者
- 小久保 慶一
- 出版者
- 日本物理教育学会
- 雑誌
- 物理教育 (ISSN:03856992)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.57, no.1, pp.50-51, 2009
溶液の組成などの工夫を行えば-2℃程度の気温の中,シャボン玉を凍らせる事ができることがわかってきた。シャボン膜に出来る結晶の形,その結晶が成長する様子や,凍ったシャボン玉が割れる様子などは神秘的で見る人に感動を与えてくれる。また,凍るシャボン玉が理科部の研究対象としてだけでなく,その研究成果が地域イベントなどへ還元されており地域貢献にもなっている。
1 0 0 0 OA 権威主義体制における議会と選挙の役割(特集にあたって)
- 著者
- 久保 慶一
- 出版者
- 独立行政法人 日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所
- 雑誌
- アジア経済 (ISSN:00022942)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.54, no.4, pp.2-10, 2013-12-15 (Released:2022-09-07)
- 著者
- 久保 慶一
- 出版者
- 日本比較政治学会
- 雑誌
- 日本比較政治学会年報 (ISSN:21852626)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.14, pp.27-58, 2012 (Released:2020-03-16)
- 参考文献数
- 12
1 0 0 0 OA モンテネグロにおける独立問題と民族アイデンティティ
- 著者
- 久保 慶一
- 出版者
- ロシア・東欧学会
- 雑誌
- ロシア・東欧研究 (ISSN:13486497)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.2004, no.33, pp.69-79, 2004 (Released:2010-05-31)
- 参考文献数
- 9
In Montenegro, there has been a deep divide between those who seek the independence of Montenegro and those who oppose it and seek the maintenance of the Yugoslav federation or the union with Serbia. It is well known that there is a correlation between the ethnic identity and the attitude towards this issue, particularly among ethnic minorities such as Albanians, Muslims (Bosnjaks) and Serbs. While one tends to assume that the ethnic identity is an independent variable that affects the behaviour towards the issue of statehood, I would argue that this assumption does not hold for Serbs. To do so, I firstly examine the correlation between the ethnic identity and the behaviour towards the issue of statehood. Secondly, by examining the census data of 1991 and 2003 in Montenegro, I point out that there seems to have been a significant scale of re-definition of the ethnic identity. In particular, a significant number of those who now regard themselves as “Serb” did not indeed do so only 12 years ago. This suggests that the assumption discussed above is wrong and the causal relations run in the opposite direction: they re-defined themselves as “Serb” because they support the maintenance of the union with Serbia. Thirdly, I briefly examine some factors that might possibly have affected the decisions made by those who regarded themselves as “Montenegrins” in 1991 to support or oppose the independence of Montenegro.
米欧アジアにおけるプライマリーの実証的分析を行う本研究は、地域・手法を重層的に横 断した研究体制に基づいて、4カ年 計画で議員サー ベイを含むデータ収集、量的・質的な比較分析を行い、引き出した仮説をサーベイ実験で検証する。データベー ス・成果は国内外の 研究者に 公開して、プライマリー関連研究の進展に貢献する企図である。進捗管理と予測できない事態へ の対応も含めて、メンバー間での研究会を実 施する。計画2年目に当たる2019年度は、初年度に整理した海外調査のデータとそれを基にした分析をまとめて、英語または邦語で論文を執筆した。代表者及び分担者は、国内外の学術誌における査読論文(Party Politics等)、国内外の学会発表等(Council for European Studies, Midwest Political Science Association , International Political Science Associationなど)を通じて、積極的に成果を発信した。また2019年度は在外研究の研究資金処理の関係で分担者を外れざるを得なかった菊池氏についても、研究上の連携を維持し、関連論文の執筆及び次年度のサーベイに向けた研究を実施した。データ収集・調査については、各自の担当地域について、関連資金も利用しながら調査を行った。研究打ち合わせは、国内学会の開催に合わせて随時実施していたが、年度末に予定してた成果取りまとめと論文集作成のための研究会、その前のいくつかの海外調査については、新型コロナウィルスの感染拡大に伴う移動制限によって断念せざるを得なかった。
1 0 0 0 OA 凍るシャボン玉の実験と地域貢献活動(<特集>北海道支部)
- 著者
- 小久保 慶一
- 出版者
- 日本物理教育学会
- 雑誌
- 物理教育 (ISSN:03856992)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.57, no.1, pp.50-51, 2009-03-06 (Released:2017-02-10)
- 参考文献数
- 2
溶液の組成などの工夫を行えば-2℃程度の気温の中,シャボン玉を凍らせる事ができることがわかってきた。シャボン膜に出来る結晶の形,その結晶が成長する様子や,凍ったシャボン玉が割れる様子などは神秘的で見る人に感動を与えてくれる。また,凍るシャボン玉が理科部の研究対象としてだけでなく,その研究成果が地域イベントなどへ還元されており地域貢献にもなっている。
1 0 0 0 モンテネグロにおける独立問題と民族アイデンティティ
- 著者
- 久保 慶一
- 出版者
- The Japanese Association for Russian and East European Studies
- 雑誌
- ロシア・東欧研究 (ISSN:13486497)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- no.33, pp.69-79, 2004
In Montenegro, there has been a deep divide between those who seek the independence of Montenegro and those who oppose it and seek the maintenance of the Yugoslav federation or the union with Serbia. It is well known that there is a correlation between the ethnic identity and the attitude towards this issue, particularly among ethnic minorities such as Albanians, Muslims (Bosnjaks) and Serbs. While one tends to assume that the ethnic identity is an independent variable that affects the behaviour towards the issue of statehood, I would argue that this assumption does not hold for Serbs. To do so, I firstly examine the correlation between the ethnic identity and the behaviour towards the issue of statehood. Secondly, by examining the census data of 1991 and 2003 in Montenegro, I point out that there seems to have been a significant scale of re-definition of the ethnic identity. In particular, a significant number of those who now regard themselves as "Serb" did not indeed do so only 12 years ago. This suggests that the assumption discussed above is wrong and the causal relations run in the opposite direction: they re-defined themselves as "Serb" because they support the maintenance of the union with Serbia. Thirdly, I briefly examine some factors that might possibly have affected the decisions made by those who regarded themselves as "Montenegrins" in 1991 to support or oppose the independence of Montenegro.
1 0 0 0 OA 国民国家システムの危機とその影響に関する研究-コソボと南オセチアの事例から
本研究は、セルビアからのコソボ独立問題とグルジアからの南オセチア・アブハジア独立問題という2つの紛争事例を調査し、共通性と差異を浮き彫りにしつつ、両者の間の相互作用にも注目し、今後の国際政治に与える影響を分析することを目的としていた。具体的には、(1)紛争の背景、(2)紛争の推移、(3)国際関係と国際関係主体に対する影響の3点について、現地調査も踏まえて比較分析を進めた。各計画年度に多くの現地調査を実施し、現地から研究者を招聘し、研究会を開催し、研究成果を公表してきた。比較研究の総合化へは道半ばであるが、政治学や国際関係論、歴史学など様々なディシプリンの成果を援用しつつ、紛争を複数の視点から考察することの意義と有用性については、三年間の間で本研究参加者の間で共通の認識を得ることができたと考える。本研究の成果は今後のより地域横断的かつ総合的な研究に活かされていくことが期待される。