著者

WoonSeon Jung Masataka Murakami Taro Shinoda Masaya Kato

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.197-202, 2018 (Released:2018-12-21)

参考文献数

19

被引用文献数

1

---

The Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) model with default parameter settings largely underestimates the diurnal variation of land surface temperature (LST) and hence the formation of summertime diurnal convective clouds over the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which are the primary target of cloud seeding in the UAE. Based on sensitivity experiment results, we optimized a set of land surface parameters to minimize the underestimation of LST and improve the performance of weather simulations over deserts and mountains in the UAE. In the optimized experiment, the difference in LST between Aqua/MODIS observations and CReSS simulation results decreased from 13.0 to 2.3 K under daytime conditions, mainly due to decreased evapotranspiration efficiency and soil thermal diffusivity. Moreover, the difference decreased from 3.8 to 2.0 K under nighttime conditions, mainly due to decreased evapotranspiration efficiency and increased soil temperature at the deepest layer. A decrease in roughness length suppressed the increase in surface air temperature (SAT), contributing to the reproduction of a realistically large difference between LST and SAT during the daytime. The improvement in temperature matching demonstrates that the CReSS model, when used at a 1-km horizontal resolution, accurately simulates the formation of diurnal convective clouds and development of precipitation over deserts in the UAE and low mountains in northeastern UAE.

著者

Kenji Suzuki Katsuhiro Nakagawa Tetsuya Kawano Shuichi Mori Masaki Katsumata Fadli Syamsudin Kunio Yoneyama

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.148-152, 2018 (Released:2018-10-17)

参考文献数

20

被引用文献数

3

---

Videosonde observations were conducted at the southwestern coastal region of Sumatra Island, Indonesia, as part of a pilot field campaign of the Years of the Maritime Continent project (Pre-YMC), to investigate the role of solid hydrometeor for precipitation processes in clouds. Videosondes were launched into three types of clouds: convective and stratiform clouds, and a thick upper stratiform cloud with shallow convection at lower level. A quantitative evaluation of the graupel shape data obtained from the videosondes showed different graupel formations in different rain systems. For the typical stratiform cloud, almost no graupel was observed. In contrasts, for the thick upper stratiform clouds with shallow convection, large numbers of ice crystals in the upper layer suggested to act as embryos and form a lot of graupel with the riming of the supercooled droplets that was supposed to be provided from the shallow convection. On the other hand, for the convection case, the videosonde observed spherical graupel just above the freezing level. This suggested that frozen drops acting as embryos formed spherical graupel, which were uplifted by the strong updraft in the convective cloud, and were different from the generally irregular-shaped graupel in the thick upper stratiform cloud.

著者

Guoyu Zhang Jinglin Zhang Jian Shang

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.132-137, 2018 (Released:2018-09-19)

参考文献数

25

被引用文献数

8

---

There is growing attention that the contrail by aviation may affect the earth's energy balance and climate change. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, the convolutional neural network model termed ContrailMod, which can be used in contrail classification with Himawari-8 stationary satellite and outperforms the representative conventional algorithm contrail detection algorithm (CDA). We estimate the distribution of potential contrail formation using temperature and specific humidity from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim) in South China region. According to the convolutional neural network identification (CNNI) and artificial visual inspection (AVI), we adopt the contrail occurrence and persistence (COP) measured from Himawari-8 stationary satellite imagery to evaluate the potential contrail coverage (PCC) fractions of the ECMWF reanalysis data. There is a high correlation between contrail occurrence and persistence and potential contrail coverage. The correlation coefficient of convolutional neural network identification is close to artificial visual inspection, which illustrates that the parameterization is reliable by comparing the observation results and the actual reflection of contrail coverage in parameterization calculation of South China region.

著者

Kentaro Ishijima Masayuki Takigawa Yousuke Yamashita Hisashi Yashiro Chihiro Kodama Masaki Satoh Kazuhiro Tsuboi Hidekazu Matsueda Yosuke Niwa Shigekazu Hirao

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.111-115, 2018 (Released:2018-08-21)

参考文献数

27

被引用文献数

3

---

Atmospheric radon-222 (222Rn) variability is analyzed and compared with model simulations made by the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), with three horizontal resolutions (223, 56, and 14 km), in order to understand high 222Rn events predominantly caused by frontal activities. Seasonal variations of event frequency are well reproduced by the model, with correlation coefficients of 0.79 (223 km) to 0.99 (14 km). The three horizontal resolutions can reproduce general features of the observed peak shapes of events in winter, which dominantly reflect the passage of cold fronts that trap dense amounts of 222Rn. Peak height and width are well reproduced by the 56 km and 14 km resolution models, while the 223 km resolution model shows much lower and broader peaks due to insufficient resolution. We also find that simulations of 222Rn and equivalent potential temperature gradient (|∇θe|) during the events show similar horizontal distributions around the 222Rn observation station, suggesting |∇θe| is a useful tool to understand the variability of atmospheric components around fronts. Consequently, model with horizontal resolution of 56 km and 14 km can well simulate spatiotemporal variations of atmospheric components driven by frontal activities, while 223 km resolution is not enough to reproduce them.

著者

Sueng-Pil Jung Tae-Yong Kwon So-Ra In Seon-Jeong Kim Geon-Tae Kim Jae-Kwan Shim Chang-Geun Park Byoung-Choel Choi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.86-90, 2018 (Released:2018-07-12)

参考文献数

23

被引用文献数

1

---

The kinetic energy associated with Chang-ma periods was investigated using rawinsonde data from Korea during 2013-2015. Changes in kinetic energy (which is defined in terms of storm relative helicity, SRH) were more pronounced than changes in thermal energy (which is defined in terms of convective available potential energy, CAPE) during precipitation. The median value of SRH increased by 14, 125, and 185 m2 s−2 in no-rain, weak-rain (< 5 mm 3 hr−1), and strong-rain (≥ 5 mm 3 hr−1) time periods, respectively. However, the values of CAPE remained below 100 J kg−1 regardless of the rainfall intensity. Moreover, the correlation coefficients (R) between SRH and precipitation amount about 0.4 with 99% confidence level. In addition, we used two vectors constituting the SRH (storm motion vector and horizontal wind vector) to determine the reason for the SRH differences. The change in the y-components of the horizontal wind vector at low levels (850-750 hPa) was determined to be closely related to SRH. The increase in SRH during the precipitation periods was therefore determined to be due to the low-level southerly wind. Based on these results, we conclude that SRH can be used not only to predict mesoscale storms but also to forecast precipitation in the early summer monsoon season in Korea.

著者

Minghao Yang Ruiting Zuo Liqiong Wang Xiong Chen Yanke Tan Xin Li

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.74-78, 2018 (Released:2018-06-26)

参考文献数

18

被引用文献数

3

---

Based on 55-yr output data from the historical runs of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) models and a NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis, we evaluate the capability of those models to simulate the interannual variability of the winter North Atlantic storm track (WNAST). It is found that the multi-model ensemble (MME) is better than any single models in reflecting the spatial distribution of WNAST interannual variability and has the smallest root mean square error (RMSE). The strengths of the interannual variations in half of the models are universally weaker than in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, the simulated interannual variability vary largely among these models in (55°N–65°N, 35°W–0°). MPI-ESM-LR, FGOALS-s2 and MRI-CGCM3 have relatively better abilities than other models to reflect the interannual variability of WNAST strength, longitude and latitude indices respectively. However, the interannual variability of WNAST longitude and latitude indices (strength index) are (is) overestimated (underestimated) in MME.

著者

Hiroaki Kawase Akira Yamazaki Hajime Iida Kazuma Aoki Wataru Shimada Hidetaka Sasaki Akihiko Murata Masaya Nosaka

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.39-45, 2018 (Released:2018-03-29)

参考文献数

22

被引用文献数

7

---

Extremely small snow cover in the winter of 2015/16 and interannual variations of snow cover over the Japanese Northern Alps are simulated by a regional climate model with 2 km grid spacing based on the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). Our simulation well reproduces the daily variation of snow depth along the Tateyama-Kurobe Alpine Route, located at the Japanese Northern Alps, as compared to snow depths observed by time-lapse cameras in 2014/15. Our simulations indicate that the maximum snow depth in 2015/16 was the lowest of 16 years at high elevations, especially in the spring. In March 2016, weak cold air outbreaks and inactive storm-tracks cause little precipitation around central Japan, resulting in greatly reduced annual accumulated snowfall than usual at high elevations. Warmer April conditions also contribute to accelerated snow melting, resulting in the disappearance of snow at high elevations one-month earlier than usual. Analysis of large-scale circulations related to past large El Niño years shows a warmer April is a typical response in El Niño events, while weak cold air outbreaks and inactive storm-tracks are contributed by the extratropical internal variation rather than lingering El Niño effects in tropics.

著者

Yuki Minamoto Kotaro Nakamura Minrui Wang Kei Kawai Kazuma Ohara Jun Noda Enkhbaatar Davaanyam Nobuo Sugimoto Kenji Kai

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.33-38, 2018 (Released:2018-03-01)

参考文献数

17

被引用文献数

16

---

A large-scale dust event occurred in East Asia during early May 2017, and transported dust was measured all over Japan. We performed an analysis of the entire dust event using multiple sources: a local ceilometer measurement, measurements from an optical particle counter in the Gobi Desert (Dalanzadgad, Mongolia), a study of Dust RGB imagery obtained from Himawari-8, lidar measurements from Japan, and meteorological data. Our results show that three extratropical low pressure systems occurred consecutively in Mongolia and generated dust storms in the Gobi Desert. The dust generated by the third low pressure system was transported to Japan by a cold front and two pressure troughs, which were associated with the low pressure system. Remarkably, the Dust RGB imagery shows both the occurrence and the transportation of the dust, and was able to detect two dust outbreaks in the Horqin Sandy Land of Northern China and their transportation to eastern Japan; this shows that the Horqin Sandy Land was one of the source regions of this dust event.

著者

Michiya Hayashi Masahiro Watanabe

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.42-45, 2016 (Released:2016-02-25)

参考文献数

36

被引用文献数

1 2

---

Westerly (WWEs) and easterly (EWEs) wind events, short-lived anomalous westerly and easterly surface winds, are known to occur with unusual large magnitude over the equatorial Pacific. As their relative frequency of occurrence and dependence on background conditions are yet to be fully clarified, we analyzed daily surface winds for 1982-2013 from which WWEs and EWEs are detected. Both types of events appear over the Pacific warm pool, where sea surface temperature (SST) is sufficiently high for active deep convection, and favorably occur with increasing Niño4 SST. However, the frequency of occurrence of EWEs is less than that of WWEs, resulting in asymmetry in wind amplitude. Local and remote anomalous convections are equally important in exciting these events, but different local development processes cause the asymmetry in the frequency of occurrence. These results can also be seen in wind stress anomalies, albeit obscured due to nonlinearity therein.

著者

Yuki Nishikawa Masaki Satoh

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.232-236, 2016 (Released:2016-08-31)

参考文献数

26

被引用文献数

3

---

As nonhydrostatic models have higher resolution, a topographical representation scheme is desirable as an alternative to the terrain-following approach, which is unstable for steep topography. We developed a conserved topographical representation scheme using a thin-wall approximation in z-coordinates (the CT scheme). This scheme is formulated by the flux-form finite-volume method with a flux limiter, so that the total integrals over the entire domain of prognostic variables are conserved: this is advantageous compared to the conventional thin-wall approximation method. The CT scheme is easily implemented for existing models that use the finite-volume method. We constructed the scheme to satisfy conservation of mass, horizontal momentum, and total energy. We compared the results of the CT scheme for an isolated mountain case with those of a step-mountain (SM) method. The CT scheme represents the propagation of gravity waves more accurately than the SM method. The upward flux of horizontal momentum becomes more vertically uniform for the CT scheme than for the SM method over time. In addition, the horizontal momentum budget shows that the total momentum is reduced by reaction force at the lower boundary with changes due to numerical damping in the upper layers and numerical filters in the free layers.

著者

Shuhei Maeda Yusuke Urabe Kazuto Takemura Tamaki Yasuda Youichi Tanimoto

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.17-21, 2016 (Released:2016-02-11)

参考文献数

19

被引用文献数

2 10

---

We investigated features of the atmosphere and ocean to seek a possible candidate that suppressed the growth of the El Niño event in 2014. In the boreal summer-fall season, equatorially antisymmetric sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with a positive (negative) sign to the north (south) of the equator prevailed in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. In association with the SST anomalies, cumulus convective activity was enhanced in the region of the climatological Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Anomalous southerly surface winds flowing across the equator toward the ITCZ induced upward latent heat flux anomalies and lowered SST in the near-equatorial region. These coherent spatial patterns between SST, wind, and latent heat flux anomalies suggested that the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback sustained the suppression of the El Niño growth. A linear baroclinic model experiment indicated that the enhanced convective heating in the ITCZ also contributed to sustain the anomalous surface southerlies across the equator by the intense meridional atmospheric circulation over the equator. These results indicate that the anomalous southerlies across the equator sustained by the WES feedback and intense convective heating in the ITCZ contributed to the suppression of the El Niño growth.

著者

Akira Yamazaki Meiji Honda Akira Kuwano-Yoshida

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.11, pp.59-64, 2015 (Released:2015-05-11)

参考文献数

12

被引用文献数

1 15

---

The influence of large-scale atmospheric blocking over the northwestern Pacific on heavy snowfall events in the Kanto area and on the Pacific Ocean side of northern Japan (PNJ) within the time scale of ∼10 days was examined through blocking case studies. The past 14 blocking cases over the Pacific, including the blocking during early- to mid-February 2014 that influenced a record-breaking snowfall over the Kanto area, were analyzed using a long-term reanalysis dataset and local meteorological observation station data. Results reveal that blocking over the Pacific causes large precipitation over the Kanto area and the PNJ by shifting cyclone (storm) tracks towards the east coast of Japan from their usual eastward course across the mid-Pacific via the south coast of Japan. Excessive passing of cyclones caused large precipitation in the Kanto area and snowfall in the PNJ. In the blocking cases with heavy snowfall events in the Kanto area, a strong cold-air inflow over Japan also existed in the lower troposphere originating from east Siberia, which initiated synoptic ground cold-air environments in the Kanto area.

著者

Naoko Kosaka Yusuke Umemiya Naoto Endou Tsuneko Kura Hiroshi Matsubara Masaki Hisada Akinori Murata Satoshi Mitarai

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.116-125, 2023 (Released:2023-07-04)

参考文献数

35

---

This paper presents experimental observations to improve typhoon prediction accuracy and to understand interactions between atmosphere and ocean directly under typhoons. Two unmanned surface vehicles (Wave Gliders (WGs)) equipped with interchangeable sensors were sailed toward the path of an approaching Category 5 typhoon (Hinnamnor), which began on 29 August 2022 and subsided on 6 September, reaching a minimum pressure of 920 hPa and a maximum wind speed of 55 m/s (105 knots). Sensors on WGs measured atmospheric pressure, wind speed, atmospheric and seawater temperature, wave height, currents, salinity, and chlorophyll-a concentrations in different parts of the typhoon. These observations made it possible to clarify changes in various phenomena as the typhoon approached and to compare differences in storm characteristics measured by the two WGs. Sea surface pressure in the core of a typhoon is useful as an initial predictor of its intensity. Data assimilation into numerical models and other observations are expected to improve prediction accuracy of typhoon phenomena. Furthermore, simultaneous observations of atmosphere and ocean will also be useful for modeling interactions.

著者

Takashi Unuma Hiroshi Yamauchi Akihito Umehara Teruyuki Kato

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.150-156, 2023 (Released:2023-07-22)

参考文献数

28

被引用文献数

1

---

We investigated the microphysical mechanisms for the enhancement of rainfall in a precipitating system that spawned heavy rainfall over the central part of the Kanto Plain in eastern Japan on 12 July 2022. Optical disdrometer observations confirmed the existence of an equilibrium state in the raindrop size distribution, especially when the precipitation intensity was high (e.g., 20 mm hr−1). As the raindrop size distribution approached equilibrium, raindrop sizes centered around 1.5 mm were observed initially, and then the number concentration of smaller and larger size raindrops increased simultaneously. The raindrop size distribution was closely related to the vertical profile of the parameters of raindrop size distribution that were estimated from polarimetric radar observations. These results suggest that the formation of equilibrium raindrop size distributions is important to produce substantial rainfall in the midlatitude as well as in the tropics.

著者

Takuto Sato Hiroyuki Kusaka

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.165-172, 2023 (Released:2023-08-11)

参考文献数

18

---

In this study, synthetic inflow turbulence generation methods developed in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and meteorological fields were applied to thermally driven convective boundary layer (CBL) simulations. Methods developed in the CFD field include the Reynolds stress Cholesky decomposition and digital filter-based method (DF method), and the cell perturbation method (CPM) is a method developed in the meteorological field. Intercomparison results show that both methods can reproduce turbulence in thermally driven CBLs when a proper driver region is ensured. The turbulence reproduced using the DF method in a thermally driven CBL has a shorter driver region than that reproduced using CPM. However, CPM can be applied to a simulation without limiting the inflow boundary, although it requires a longer driver region than the DF method. Therefore, it was confirmed that both methods have unique merits that can be useful for downscaling from meteorological mesoscale models to microscale large-eddy simulation models.

著者

Nanami Naka Tetsuya Takemi

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.19A-002, (Released:2023-06-05)

被引用文献数

2

---

Using mesoscale gridded analysis data and radar/raingauge-analyzed precipitation products, this study investigated the environmental conditions for the occurrence of extremely heavy rain events that occurred in northern Kyushu during the warm season in recent years. In all cases, the environmental conditions were not particularly unstable but were almost saturated in the deep layer of the troposphere. The existence of moist absolutely unstable layers (MAULs) was confirmed in and around the rainfall areas. A positive correlation was found between the volume of deep MAULs and the area total rainfall. A large convergence of the water vapor flux is observed in the lower troposphere, which appears to maintain very humid conditions and MAULs. The moisture convergence in the lower troposphere and the presence of deep MAULs is considered to enhance the heavy rainfall in the preceding hours. Humid conditions form deep MAULs that appear to precede the heavy rainfalls.

著者

Keita Fujiwara Tetsuya Takemi Nobuhito Mori

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2023-019, (Released:2023-06-03)

---

To investigate the effects of global warming on Typhoon Jebi (2018), we performed high-resolution pseudo-global 2-K and 4-K warming simulations with initial time ensembles using a regional atmospheric model. The pseudo-global warming experiments demonstrated the further facilitation of Jebi's development with a higher rise in the temperature. The intensity over the ocean to the south of Japan increased by 8% (20%) in the climate warmed 2-K (4-K) to the current climate. Typhoon Jebi, in the 4-K warming simulations, maintained a robust inner-core characterized by a compact and deep eyewall and well-developed primary and secondary circulations even immediately before landfall, in contrast to the result in the 2-K warming simulations. The sustained robust axisymmetric structure immediately before landfall in the 4-K warming runs was strongly associated with the enhanced ocean warming around Japan, notable moistening of the lower-to-middle troposphere in the vicinity of Typhoon Jebi, and a significant decrease in vertical wind shear under the extremely warmed future climate. The nonlinear responses of Typhoon Jebi to the tropospheric temperature rise are attributable to the drastic changes in the midlatitude's thermodynamic and dynamic environments under climate changes resulting from 2-K to 4-K global warming.

著者

Reiji Kimura Masao Moriyama Levent Saylan

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.94-100, 2023 (Released:2023-05-26)

参考文献数

39

---

Simulations of future climate indicate that the Mediterranean countries will see increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. In Türkiye, which has a semi-arid and dry sub-humid climate, the coupled effect of warming and drought is expected to lead to a general increase in aridity. We applied indices derived from satellite data to provide continuous monitoring for drought hazards and evaluated recent trends in aridification and drought. Annual averaged temperatures showed a statistically significant rise, although annual rainfall showed no nationwide trend despite strong fluctuations over Türkiye. Significant increasing (decreasing) trends of vegetation (aridification) could be found in the northern, western, and southern regions, despite the rising temperatures and fluctuations in rainfall. One cause of these trends is presumed to be an increase in the nation's proportion of forest, orchard trees, and irrigated farmland. Although decreasing trend of aridification over Türkiye, drought has recurred throughout the 22-year study period in the central and eastern regions. These areas in which the annual averaged satellite-based aridity index exceeds a threshold value correspond closely to regions vulnerable to drought. Satellite-based indices may show particular promise for the major agricultural or pasture areas in central and eastern Türkiye, which are at heightened risk of future drought.

著者

Yoshihiro Tomikawa Masashi Kohma Masanori Takeda Kaoru Sato

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.86-93, 2023 (Released:2023-05-23)

参考文献数

31

被引用文献数

1

---

An intensive balloon-borne observation was performed at Syowa Station in the Antarctic (69.0°S, 39.6°E) in July 2016 using Cryogenic Frostpoint Hygrometers (CFH) and Electrochemical Concentration Cell (ECC) ozonesondes. High water vapor concentration was observed in the upper troposphere in two out of five observations. Trajectory analysis and atmospheric reanalysis data showed that moist air was transported into the upper troposphere due to the upwelling in front of a trough. While only isentropic transport was dominant in one case, both the isentropic transport and diabatic heating contributed to the upward transport in the other case. In another case where the air parcels came over the Antarctic continent, the water vapor concentration in the upper troposphere was lower than in the other cases. These results suggest that transport of air parcels with different origins by synoptic-scale disturbances controls water vapor concentration in the Antarctic upper troposphere.

著者

Naoki Sato Takeshi Horinouchi Yoshio Kawatani

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.78-85, 2023 (Released:2023-05-16)

参考文献数

24

---

Large-scale trends related to the precipitation in central Japan were investigated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 dataset. In the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 projections, surface temperature over central Japan increases by 1 to 4 K during the 21st century in most models. Focusing on the trend of surface-air temperature and precipitation in central Japan, these models were categorized into two groups: The precipitation significantly increases in 11 models (group A). On the other hand, the trends of precipitation are small in the remaining 20 models (group B). Analyses of high-frequency components based on daily data revealed that the difference in the precipitation prediction is associated with that in the storm activity around Japan. Relatively enhanced meridional surface-air temperature gradient in the subpolar region may contribute to reinforced storm activity. On the other hand, the zonal surface pressure gradient associated with the Siberian high and the Aleutian low is not strengthened in group A. The climatological wintertime monsoon does not appear to contribute to the difference of precipitation trend in central Japan between the two groups. Moreover, the influence of any other planetary-scale variations is not implied.