著者

福田 昌史

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.35, no.1, pp.59-71, 2008-03-28

参考文献数

18

被引用文献数

2

---

Exit polls are excellent sources of information to understand voter behavior and to predict election outcomes. This paper presents the current methods of exit polls, which is conducted primarily by the Mainichi Newspapers, and discusses issues related to exit polls.<br>Exit polls are based on a two-stage sampling design, with a polling precinct as the primary sampling unit and a voter as the final sampling unit. Precincts are stratified and selected systematically with probability proportional to the precincts' forecasted number of voters. The voters of a precinct are first selected systematically, with the interval predetermined based on the forecasted numbers of voters, and subsequently, asked for interviews.<br>The datasets of exit polls that have been collected during 23 governor elections held since April, 2003 are analyzed. Standard errors of the estimated proportions of votes for 90 candidates are, on average, 1.5 times larger than the respective standard errors based on the simple random sampling.<br>The analysis also reveals that the estimated proportions of votes for 20% of the candidates are outside the 95% confidence intervals, which suggests that there exist some sources of errors apart from the sampling error. The issues related to exit polls, including those concerning errors caused by an increasing number of early voters and non-responses, are discussed.

著者

狩野 裕

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.29, no.2, pp.138-159, 2002-12-25

被引用文献数

20 26

---

It is well-known that structural equation modeling (SEM) can represent a variety of traditional multivariate statistical models. This fact does not necessarily mean that SEM should be used for the traditional models. It is often said that a general model is more difficult to handle than a specific model developed for a given situation. In this paper, we shall clarify relative advantages between SEM and several traditional statistical models. Rather than comparison in mathematical properties, we shall discuss how and when SEM outperforms corresponding traditional models in practical situations. Special attention is paid to statistical analysis of a scale score, the sum of indicator variables determined by factor analysis. In particular, we shall study relative advantages between (i) confirmatory factor analysis and exploratory factor analysis, (ii) multiple indicator analysis and correlational and regression analysis of scale scores, (iii) analysis of factor means and analysis of variance of scale scores, and (iv) path analysis and multiple regression analysis.

著者

金 明哲

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

日本行動計量学会大会発表論文抄録集

巻号頁・発行日

vol.31, pp.40-43, 2003-09-03

著者

星野 崇宏

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.32, no.2, pp.121-132, 2005 (Released:2005-12-27)

参考文献数

25

被引用文献数

1 1

---

We propose a propensity score weighted M-estimation method for marginal parametric models for groups in which all subjects are missing. It is shown that the propose estimator is consistent and its limiting distribution is normal. We also propose a hypothetsis testing method using the proposed estimator. Using the proposed method, we estimate the intervention effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on the development of the child's cognitive functioning from data obtained from the US National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth.

著者

菱山 完 伊藤 徹郎 岡田 謙介

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.47, no.2, pp.153-160, 2020 (Released:2021-04-21)

参考文献数

9

---

Iterative learning of simple assignments such as memorization of letters and words have shown to improve students' test scores of the learned assignments. Meanwhile, existing studies have mixed results as to whether simple repetitive learning improve the general academic performance or not. Using educational big data collected from more than four hundred thousand high-school students thorough crowd system, the current study investigated the effect of re-solving questions to the general academic achievement. Although descriptive statistics have not revealed steady tendencies, the results of hierarchical linear models that controlled for heterogeneity of schools, grades and individuals showed consistent positive effects of iterative learning towards general academic performance. The results suggest the importance of iterative learning, as well as controlling for the heterogeneity in large-scale educational dataset.

著者

菊池 愛美 髙岡 昂太 坂本 次郎

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.48, no.2, pp.79-87, 2021 (Released:2022-04-27)

参考文献数

15

被引用文献数

1

---

A comprehensive survey of child abuse by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Wel- fare of Japan (2019) identified 420 potential risk assessment items. However, using all of these assessment items at a child guidance center would overwhelm their capacity and be thus unrealistic. This study aims to select essential assessment items so that they are usable in actual practice, while maintaining its predictive validity. Here, we used the Random Forests algorithm and predicted classifications to identify the need for child protection by child guidance centers or referral to them from child welfare facili- ties of each municipality. We selected the top 30 items adopted by feature importance in the algorithm from the items evaluated to be easily acquirable in the initial action (50 points or more). The model maintained a moderate level of accuracy 0.783 and AUC-ROC 0.900.

著者

河合 将志 日高 薫 鈴木 崇史

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.48, no.1, pp.29-37, 2021 (Released:2021-11-10)

参考文献数

51

---

US President Donald Trump is known for his unique character. However, does the notion imply that his policy is unique? Existing studies on presidents have assumed that Trump's policy significantly differs from that of former President Barack Obama due to extremely biased policies, especially foreign policy. To test the validity of such a common view, the study conducted a quantitative text analysis of executive orders issued by both presidents. Results show that (1) there are systematic differences between Obama's and Trump's policy; (2) tracklessness, rather than deflectiveness highlights the uniqueness of Trump's policy; and (3) the uniqueness of Trump's policy is pronounced in domestic rather than foreign policy.

著者

財津 亘 金 明哲

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.46, no.2, pp.87-95, 2019 (Released:2020-03-31)

参考文献数

25

---

This study examined the difference between authors and the consistency in each author's writing styles, both were the basis of authorship verification. We analyzed 88 academic papers on psychology written by 22 authors and focused on the rates of “non-content words”, “bigram of parts-of-speech”, “bigram of postpositional particles”, “positioning of commas”, ”words before period”, and “Kanji, Hiragana, and Katakana” in the papers. Next, symmetric Kullback-Leibler divergence distances between the papers were calculated. To examine the author differences in writing styles, using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we compared the distances between papers written by the same author with those by different authors. Furthermore, to examine author consistency in writing styles, we compared the distances of short durations (under five years) between papers written by the same author with the longer durations (over five years). These results supported the hypothesis that there exist author differences and consistency in writing styles.

著者

竹内 啓

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, no.1, pp.85-90, 1986-09-30 (Released:2010-06-28)

著者

北田 淳子

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.38, no.1, pp.13-32, 2011 (Released:2011-07-04)

参考文献数

26

被引用文献数

2 3

---

In Japan the “Basic Resident Register (BRR) ” is often used for statistical random sampling in public opinion surveys. The objective of the present paper is to compare two types of area sampling methods, without using the BRR. The first one (RRM) is a random route method, and the second one (DRM) is a method based on a database for a digital residential map. As a result, the percentage of data collected in the case of RRM was very low;and in the case of DRM, there was an uneven distribution in terms of respondents' age (a higher percentage of older respondents). However, when this bias was corrected by according weight to the population proportion, no strong significant difference concerning answer distributions was found. In each survey, the same substantial changes were detected statistically, compared with a past survey data based on the BRR. The findings suggest that these sampling methods are useful when accompanied with a careful analysis in spite of the resulting problems.

著者

山口 一大 岡田 謙介

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.44, no.2, pp.181-198, 2017 (Released:2018-04-26)

参考文献数

95

被引用文献数

1

---

Cognitive Diagnostic Models (CDMs) have been developed for a few decades to reveal students' knowledge status. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of recent advances in CDMs, and to figure out the trend in its model development. In the paper, we first introduce the fundamental concept of CDMs, and then summarize broad range of modern CDMs by classifying them into compensatory, noncompensatory, and integrated models as well as other emerging approaches. Finally, we discuss the future orientation of CDM studies with focus on the empirical applications.

著者

西井 真祐子 守口 剛

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.47, no.2, pp.187-197, 2020 (Released:2021-04-21)

参考文献数

24

---

The authors focus on consumers' reading direction for capturing product's visual information. There has been a great deal of research done, but these have discussed separately from product's image information and character information such as product's name. This study investigates the processes of the visual stimulus when product's information and product's image are processed simultaneously and how that affects product preference. Three experiment studies examined that effect of the direction of a product's cast shadow on processing fluency and product preference. Those revealed two points that (1) the consistency of direction between the product name written on the product package and the product's cast-shadow could enhance consumers' processing fluency, (2) the effect of the consistency of two directions on processing fluency may enhance product evaluation. Additionally, it is worth noting that we recruited several measuring methods for capturing “processing fluency” to reinforce the robustness of our findings.

著者

谷川 未沙樹 朝日 弓未

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

日本行動計量学会大会発表論文抄録集

巻号頁・発行日

vol.41, pp.344-345, 2013-09-03

著者

上阪 彩香

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.45, no.2, pp.135-151, 2018 (Released:2019-04-26)

参考文献数

29

---

In this article, we focus on Saikaku’s posthumous works. Saikaku Ihara (c. 1642~93) is a fiction writer of the Genroku period (1688~1704) in Japan. His researchershave tried to identify his works but problems continue to exist. It remains unclearwhich works were really written by Saikaku especially his posthumous works. This pa-per examines the author of his posthumous works using Random Forests, Boosting andBagging. First, we examined Saikaku and Dansui’s works. A unigram of Japanese par-ticles is the best variable in our research. Among these algorithm, the preferred orderof classification accuracy rate is found to be Random Forests > AdaBoost > Bagging.Then, we examined his posthumous works using the usefulness 9 futures that we gotthe first analysis. It was found that from the result that most chapters are classifiedunder Saikaku, whereas some chapters are classified under Dansui. From what has beendiscussed above, we can conclude that Saikaku’s posthumous works are more likely tobe Saikaku’s than Dansui’s. The result supports the assumption that Dansui relativelyedit the Saikaku’s draft with sufficient accuracy rate however our result also providespotential to has become increasing Dansui’s editing throughout five years.

著者

豊田 秀樹 川端 一光 中村 健太郎 片平 秀貴

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.34, no.1, pp.101-110, 2007 (Released:2007-05-30)

参考文献数

15

被引用文献数

1 1 1

---

This study proposes the adoption of a neural network as an alternative to logistic regression analysis, which is conventionally used to estimate the propensity score (Rosenbaum & Rubin, 1983). Moreover, covariates that are frequently obscured are presented.Considering the response pattern to a mail survey by random sampling as a criterion, we examined how is the response pattern to a Web survey by purposive selection rectified using the propensity score. The propensity score was estimated using the subjects' demographic variables as covariates.The results of adopting a neural network were compared with those of the logistic regression analysis. As a result, the accuracy of bias reduction by the threelayer neural networks was found to be greater than that by the logistic regression analysis.In addition, detailed contents of the covariates were presented, and a decision tree was produced to examine the influence of covariates on allocation of the subjects to survey forms.

著者

上田 雅夫

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.46, no.2, pp.97-106, 2019 (Released:2020-03-31)

参考文献数

31

---

The objective in this research is to propose an index for customer relationship management instead of utilizing RFM or share of wallet. This study examined whether the number of days from contract to initial usage can be used as the index for customer management. For this purpose, an empirical analysis was conducted by using a Bayesian model with purchase history data of a single year and three years regarding two kinds of credit cards and a customer master data. The results of the empirical analysis showed the shorter duration to the contract day, the amount of money for the one hundred eighty days from initial usage became higher. These results clarified that the days can be utilized as the index for customer management. In the conventional customer management index such as RFM, it is necessary to store purchase history data for several months in a data warehouse, however, this proposed method does not need to store transaction data since the duration data can be utilized. Hence, this index can promptly find problematic customers.

著者

星野 崇宏

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.34, no.1, pp.33-48, 2007 (Released:2007-05-30)

参考文献数

25

被引用文献数

2 4

---

We showed that the propensity score weighted M-estimation method proposed by Hoshino (2005) can be applied in order to adjust for the bias in sampling surveys for marketing research. Further, using real data sets, we investigated the capabilities and the limitations of the propensity score adjustment method to the adjustment of the biased internet surveys and demonstrated the validity of Hoshino's method. By using the covariates selected the method proposed by Hoshino and Maeda (2006) in two similar surveys, we found that the effectiveness of the adjustment method using the propensity scores was reproducible.

著者

上阪 彩香

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.45, no.2, pp.135-151, 2018

---

<p>In this article, we focus on Saikaku's posthumous works. Saikaku Ihara (c. 1642~93) is a fiction writer of the Genroku period (1688~1704) in Japan. His researchershave tried to identify his works but problems continue to exist. It remains unclearwhich works were really written by Saikaku especially his posthumous works. This pa-per examines the author of his posthumous works using Random Forests, Boosting andBagging. First, we examined Saikaku and Dansui's works. A unigram of Japanese par-ticles is the best variable in our research. Among these algorithm, the preferred orderof classification accuracy rate is found to be Random Forests > AdaBoost > Bagging.Then, we examined his posthumous works using the usefulness 9 futures that we gotthe first analysis. It was found that from the result that most chapters are classifiedunder Saikaku, whereas some chapters are classified under Dansui. From what has beendiscussed above, we can conclude that Saikaku's posthumous works are more likely tobe Saikaku's than Dansui's. The result supports the assumption that Dansui relativelyedit the Saikaku's draft with sufficient accuracy rate however our result also providespotential to has become increasing Dansui's editing throughout five years.</p>

著者

竹内 真登 星野 崇宏

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.44, no.1, pp.45-56, 2017 (Released:2017-12-01)

参考文献数

36

被引用文献数

2 1

---

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that process simulation can improve the prediction accuracy of marketing research. First, we argue that photo-simulation-manipulation, proposed by Takeuchi (2015), is based on process simulation. Considering this argument, we conduct a randomized experiment in which participants are assigned to three groups (photo-simulation-manipulation vs. how-manipulation vs. non-manipulation). The participants answer the mind-set manipulation task based on the condition assigned to them and conjoint measurement in the main experiment. In addition, we investigate the products that the participants actually purchased in a follow-up survey. We find that in contrast to non-manipulation, photo-simulation-manipulation improves the prediction accuracy of participants' purchase deduced from conjoint measurement. We discuss the reason for this result and conclude that the participant responses better reflect actual purchase behavior due to activation of memory of past purchases and association with the target products caused by process simulation.

著者

大江 基貴 越智 義道 後藤 昌司

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.44, no.2, pp.167-179, 2017 (Released:2018-04-26)

参考文献数

32

---

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a currently well-developed statistical tool for characterizing accuracy of medical diagnostic tests. Recently, several authors suggest approaches referred to as ROC regression models in order to evaluate effects of factors influencing accuracy of diagnostics. Oe, Ochi, & Goto (2016) have presented an inference process of a ROC regression model based on Generalized Additive Model with penalized splines via REstricted Maximum Likelihood method. This approach focuses on smoothing continuous-type covariates, but in addition to continuous covariates (e.g. age, weight, etc), discrete covariates (e.g. sex, smoking, etc) often significantly effect on accuracy of diagnostics. On this article, we proposed an extended method so that we could model discrete and continuous covariates simultaneously. We provided the formulation and the inference procedure, and evaluated inference performance of this method through several simulations. In the simulation result, we found that both effect of discrete and continuous covariates on the ROC was appropriately estimated. Furthermore, we applied our method to the neonatal hearing impairment screening data and evaluated how some covariates effect on the ROC with auditory brainstem response (ABR) as a diagnostic valuable for hearing impairment. From the analysis results, it was suggested that sex and Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission (TEOAE) influenced on the ROC with ABR.