- 著者
-
田中 明彦
- 出版者
- 財団法人 日本国際政治学会
- 雑誌
- 国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.1983, no.74, pp.134-153,L13, 1983-08-31 (Released:2010-09-01)
- 参考文献数
- 19
An information processing system to simulate the decision-making process of China's international conflict behavior is presented. This system, called CHINA-WATCHER, is designed to represent different models of Chinese cognitive process. Different models are specified in terms of the frame of reference (realist or revolutionary), the evaluation strategy (“dove”, “dawk”, or “hawk”), the support-side decision strategy (“dove” or “hawk”), and the involvement decision strategy (“dove” or “hawk”).No matter how different models are specified in terms of the above criteria, CHINA-WATCHER has key procedures applied in any model. Essentially, CHINA-WATCHER “understands” an inputted case (international conflict, crisis, etc.) and “decides” what China would do. To “understand” the current case, CHINA-WATCHER updates the “world amity-enmity map” showing who are China's friends and who are China's enemies. Then, it detemines the relations of the parties in the current case, i. e. whether the case is a confrontation between friends and enemies, a confrontation between friends and friends, etc.In addition, CHINA-WATCHER determines the contexts in which the current case is put. There are two contexts always to be determined no matter which model is specified; they are the narrative context and the precedential context. The narrative context is the preceding cases which constitute a longer, unfolding “stort, ” with the current case as its most recent episode. Setting the precedential context is the most important feature of the CHINA-WATCHER system. The essential, idea is to derive instructions for current action from an analysis of cases in memory that are similar to the current one in certain key respects. In other words, the decision-makers are assumed to understand the current case in part through the analogy of the past precedents.The second essential operation of CHINA-WATCHER is to decide what to do in the current case. CHINA-WATCHER decides (1) which side in the case to support and (2) to what extent China involves itself. The latter involvement decision consists of verbal involvement and physical involvement. The support-side decision is made essentially from the examination of the party configuration of the current case. The involvement decision is made through the analysis of the precedential context.As stated above, different models are specified in terms of the frame of reference, the evaluation strategy, the support-side decision strategy, and the involvement decision strategy. The frame of reference suggests the criteria of friends and enemies. to China and the criteria to determine the precedential context. The evaluation strategy is used to cope with uncertainty of friend-enemy evaluation. The support-side decision strategy is used to decide which side to support and the involvement decision strategy is used to decide the level of involvement based on the precedential context.We examine how CHINA-WATCHER with different models process information on each of the 385 cases of Chinese international conflict behavior from 1949 to 1978 and predict the decision to be taken by the PRC in each of them. It is found that the model with the revolutionary framework and the evaluation strategy of a “dove” performed better in the periods from 1949 to 1953, from 1957 to 1958, from 1968 to 1969, and from 1974 to 1976. Also found is that the model with the realist framework and the evaluation strategy of a “dawk” performed better in the periods from 1954 to 1956, from 1959 to 1967, from 1970 to 1973, and from 1977 to 1978. But it was found that the Chinese were consistent in the “hawkish” strategy for taking sides and in their “dovish” involvement decision strategy.