著者
都司 嘉宣 日野 貴之
出版者
東京大学地震研究所
雑誌
東京大学地震研究所彙報 (ISSN:00408972)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.68, no.2, pp.91-176, 1993-09-30

寛政4年4月1日(1792年)に,普賢岳の火山活動の終期に島原市付近に生じた地震に誘発された島原半島眉山の東斜面の崩壊によって,多量の土砂が有明海に流入し,有明海に大きな津波を生じた.この津波によって,島原半島側と,対岸の熊本県側の海岸は大きな津波被害を被った.近年,このときの熊本県側の津波被害の状況を伝える文書が数多く発掘された.この研究では,津波による死者数,家屋被害,田畑の浸水範囲と面積を確定し,あわせて被災現地での伝承,津波の浸水限界を示す「津波留石」などの知識を加えて,津波の浸水高の測定を行った.この津波による,肥後国の被害は,武士僧侶を除く死者が玉名郡で2,221人,飽田郡で1,166人,宇土郡で1,221人で肥後3郡合計で4,653人.このほかに武士僧侶とその家族たち162人を加え,4,815人が肥後三郡の死者総数となる.また,大矢野島を含む天草諸島では343人で,結局現在の熊本県がわ海岸全体で5,158人の死者があったものと見積られる.肥後三郡のけが人は811人,流失破損家屋2,252軒,浸水田畑3,848町歩であった.津波高さは熊本市の河内,塩屋,近津付近で15mから20mに達し,また三角半島北岸の細田,大田尾などで高く,三角町大田尾で22.5mに達した.
著者
都司 嘉宣
出版者
公益社団法人 東京地学協会
雑誌
地学雑誌 (ISSN:0022135X)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.106, no.4, pp.486-502, 1997-08-25 (Released:2009-11-12)
参考文献数
12
被引用文献数
2 7

A field survey of the damage of the Amami-Oshima-Kinkai earthquake (Mw 7.1) and its tsunami of October 18, 1995 was conducted for four days from the next day of the main shock. A large aftershock (Mw 6.8) occurred in the next day and was also accompanied with a small tsunami. We conducted interviews of the inhabitants, and measured heights of the both tsunamis. The maximum height of the tsunami of the main shock was 3.0 m at Urahara Port on the south coast of Kikai-jima. Earthquake damage mainly occurred on Kikai-jima, where stone walls were fallen down at 91 places, the water supply facility of the island was disordered, and several concrete slabs slid down at Wan Port. Several fishing boats were wrecked due to the both tsunamis at ports on Kikai-jima and Amami-Oshima. Imamura-Hatori's magnitudes of the main shock and the large aftershock are m=1.0 and m=0.0, respectively. Abe's magnitude of the tsunamis the main shock is estimated to be Mt=7.6 and is large for the earthquake magnitude. A gigantic earthquake (M8.0) with a larger tsunami occurred on June 15, 1911 in the sea region close to the present event, and its folktale is handed down by the inhabitants of Kikai-jima.
著者
都司 嘉宣 上田 和枝 佐竹 健治
出版者
公益社団法人 日本地震学会
雑誌
地震 第2輯 (ISSN:00371114)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.51, no.1, pp.1-17, 1998-07-03 (Released:2010-03-11)
参考文献数
48
被引用文献数
3

From midnight of January 27, 1700 to noon of the next day, abnormal sea level changes were recorded at several locations on the Pacific coast of Japan. We previously interpreted these as tsunamis from a giant earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone, off the west coast of North America. In this paper, we report our detailed examinations of the original documents recording the tsunamis, including the reliability of the documents themselves. The tsunamis were described in six independent documents, mostly local government records. No one was injured or killed at any location. In Miyako, 20 houses were burned and 13 houses were destroyed by the tsunami. At Otsuchi, a few houses and rice paddies were damaged. In Tanabe, the government storage house was inundated. The tsunamis were first noticed just before midnight of the 27th at Miyako and Otsuchi, and the next morning at the other localities. We estimated the tsunami heights from descriptions in the documents, after accounting for tide levels and vertical crustal movements of coasts since 1700. The latter correction is difficult and the uncertainty is large. The estimated tsunami heights were: 4m at Kuwagasaki, 3.2m at Tsugaruishi, both in Miyako, 3.3m at Otsuchi, 1m at Nakaminato, 1.0-1.7m at Miho, and 3.3 and 5.4m at two locations in Tanabe. We also examined the weather records for January 26-29 and found no abnormal description, ruling out the possibility of meteorological origin. Lack of regional earthquakes on these days and the tsunami height distribution indicate that the tsunami came across the Pacific Ocean. We then estimate the tsunami magnitude, Mt, for each possible tsunami source around the Pacific. The result shows that the size of earthquake that generated the tsunami was M9 wherever the source was. We examined historical data and paleoseismological results in the possible regions and confirmed that the tsunami source was the Cascadia subduction zone, and that the origin time was around 9PM on January 26, 1700 local time.
著者
都司 嘉宣
出版者
日本地球惑星科学連合
雑誌
日本地球惑星科学連合2016年大会
巻号頁・発行日
2016-03-10

[津波特異点とは] 過去幾度かの津波の来襲を経験してきたある一地方の海岸で,いつも決まった場所で津波が周囲の他の点より高く現れる場所が存在することがある.A.宮古湾の最奥部に位置する赤前,B.房総半島の旭市飯岡,能登半島先端部,隠岐諸島,島根半島,C.奥尻島南端の青苗,佐渡島の北東端,D.伊豆下田,奥尻島青苗の東の初松前,E.尾鷲市賀田,F.ハワイ列島,トンガ国ニアウトプタプ島,などもこのような場所である.このような場所を「津波特異点」と呼ぶことにしよう.このような場所が存在する理由を対応する小文字で記していくと(a)V字湾の最奥部,(b)舌状に浅海部が沖に突き出た海底地形がある場合にその根元に当たる点,(c)半島の先端,(d)半島を回り込んだ直背後の点,(e) 湾の基本固有振動の腹点,(f) 周辺に広い陸棚斜面海域を従えた大洋中の孤島,のどれかに当たっていることが多い.実は大阪も(e)の特異点と考えられる.以上のような津波特異点は,複数の津波の過去事例のデータから気づかれることが多いが,(a)を除いて,住民からも防災行政からも意識されていないことが多い.本研究でも筆者らは2つの津波特異点を見いだした.若狭湾の舞鶴市大浦半島と,和歌山県御坊市海岸である.[若狭湾の津波特異点] 若狭湾に突き出た大浦半島の先端の海岸で津波の浸水高が大きくなることは,1983年日本海中部地震,および1993年北海道南西沖地震の両津波による高さ分布に見ることができる.大浦半島の先端部に位置する野原と小橋は,この2回の津波のいずれにおいても分布のピークを示しており,大浦半島の先端部が著しい津波特異点であることを示している(上述の理由(c)).しかるに,この両集落は,海と集落の間に砂浜しかなく,集落を津波被害から守るべき堤防が全くない状態に置かれているのである.[御坊市の津波特異点] 和歌山県御坊市の中心市街地は,宝永地震(1707),安政元年(1854)の安政南海地震の両度の津波のさい,中心にある浄国寺の本堂入り口の雨だれ石まで(宝永,2.8m),および寺門前の街路まで(安政南海,2.5m)であって,いずれも御坊は市街地の半分の浸水にとどまり,軽い被害ですんだ,と考えられてきた(都司ら,1996).ところが,安政南海地震の数値計算をしてみると,御坊の前面で津波は高さ9.0mに達するという結果が出てくる.古文献の記載と数値計算結果とがあまりに違いすぎるので,数値計算がどこかで間違っているのでは,とプログラム,計算過程をしらみつぶしにしらべてもどこにも誤りはない.調べてみるとこういう事であった.当時名屋浦と呼ばれた御坊市中心街の東側を流れていた日高川の流路は,海岸線付近まで近づいて,ここで砂丘に行き当たり,砂丘を隔てて海岸線に平行に塩屋の集落の西側を南東に約1km余り進んで,王子川に合流してここでやっと太平洋に注いでいた.御坊の中心街を襲った歴代の南海地震の津波は,実は砂丘を乗り越えてきた直接の波ではなく,海岸部で曲がりくねった日高川の河口から迂回して入った波だったのである.この夜に海岸部で迂回した日高川は,津波の直撃から御坊の町を守るのには役に立っても,洪水のとき,大量の流水を海に流し出すことが出来ず,御坊はしばしば洪水の大災害をこうむってきた.そこで,明治期から現在まで日高側の河口は,河口部の砂丘が削られ消滅し,御坊の中心街の前面が直接太平洋に接するようになった.洪水の被害が軽減され,かつ大型船の入港が可能となってめでたしめでたし,であるが.宝永,安政南海の2度の南海地震の津波の被害を軽減してくれた日高側河口の砂丘は,今は無いのである.御坊市の行政はこのことに気がついて居るであろうか? 参考文献都司嘉宣,加藤健二,荒井賢一,1994,1993年北海道南西沖地震による津波,その2,科研費突発災害研究,No.05306012,(代表:石山祐二),65-78都司嘉宣,岩崎伸一,1996,和歌山県沿岸の安政南海津波(1854)について,歴史地震,169-187
著者
都司 嘉宣 佐竹 健治 石辺 岳男 楠本 聡 原田 智也 西山 昭仁 金 幸隆 上野 俊洋 室谷 智子 大木 聖子 杉本 めぐみ 泊 次郎 Heidarzadeh Mohammad 綿田 辰吾 今井 健太郎 Choi Byung Ho Yoon Sung Bum Bae Jae Seok Kim Kyeong Ok Kim Hyun Woo
出版者
東京大学地震研究所
雑誌
東京大学地震研究所彙報 (ISSN:00408972)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.86, no.3/4, pp.29-279, 2012-03-16

We report the results of field surveys conducted by the Earthquake Research Institute, to measure tsunami heights from the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan Earthquake (M 9.0), on March 11. Measurements were taken at 296 points on the Sanriku coasts of Aomori, Iwate, and Miyagi Prefectures, and the Pacific coasts of Ibaraki and Chiba Prefectures. The data are included in the results of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group. We did not cover the Sendai plain in the southern Miyagi Prefecture because other parties extensively measure there, nor Fukushima Prefecture because of the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant. The twelve surveys first sought traces indicating tsunami runup or inundation heights. Reliability was classified into A (most reliable based on clear physical evidence and eyewitness accounts), B (mostly based on natural traces), and C (least reliable based on equivocal evidence). Most physical evidence obtained after June was not significant; therefore, reliance was mostly placed on eyewitness accounts. Locations and relative heights above sea level were measured using handheld GPS receivers, auto-level, or total station. The measured heights were corrected for differences in tide level between measurement time and tsunami arrival time. The results are shown on table and four regional maps; however, the details of each measurement, including locations shown on 1:25,000 maps and photographs of evidence are shown in the Appendix. Along the northern Sanriku coast (Aomori and Iwate), most of the 141 heights range between 10m and 30m. Runup heights exceeding 30m were measured at one location in Noda Village and nine locations in Miyako City. On the southern Sanriku coast in Miyagi, most of the 76 measurements range between 4 and 20 m. On the Ibaraki coast, 36 measurements range from 2.8 to 8.1 m, and the heights generally decease toward the south. On the Chiba coast, 43 measurements range from 0.7 to 7.9 m, with the maximum height near Iioka, Asahi City.
著者
秋 教昇 都司 嘉宣 朴 昌業 姜 泰燮
出版者
東京大学地震研究所
雑誌
東京大學地震研究所彙報 = Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo (ISSN:00408972)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.86, no.1-2, pp.11-27, 2011

Recently, it was reported that Mt. Beakdu experienced at least four or five large volcanic eruptions in geological and historical times, and that the lake Cheonji had been formed by the collapse of a part of the mountain's summit (Wei et al., 1998). The last of four eruptions occurred in historical times. Geologists attempted to estimate the period of the eruptions using radio carbon isotope dating, but the results showed a variety of periods ranging from approximately AD 8th to 14th centuries, which are the dates of the Balae and Goryo dynasties. Unfortunately, there are no distinct records of eruptions during this period. In the present study, we suggest that the last great volcanic eruption occurred in winter when there was a strong northwestern seasonal wind, based on the distribution of pumice on satellite images and the thickness of pumice layers measured at sites in relationship to the climatic environment. On the other hand, some researchers interpreted that five events described in the Joseon Dynasty relate to volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu. Those events occurred in 1413, 1593, 1668, 1702, and 1903. Their interpretations are widely cited in journals and books; however, based on critical reviews of historical literature including Joseon-wangjo-sillog ("Chronology of the Joseon Dynasty"), we found that three of the events were not related to volcanic eruptions of Mt. Beakdu. Events in 1413 and 1668 were Asian yellow sand storm. The event in 1903 recorded in Chinese literature (Liu, 1909) was found to be a shower of rain and hail accompanied by thunder and lightning. Only the two events in 1597 and 1702 were confirmed to be related to volcanic activities of Mt. Beakdu. According to Joseon-wangjo-sillog, a large earthquake with the maximum intensity of 9.0 on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (MMI) and its aftershocks occurred at the boulder region of Samsu county, Hamgyeongdo Province, in 1597. The document reveals that they were detected in Hamgyeondo (MMI6) and in Chungcheong-do (MMI5) over three days. The mainshock was accompanied by a volcanic explosion at Wangtian, which is located 35km southwest from Mt. Baekdu. The site is one of the three eruption centers of the Mt.Beakdu volcanic body. A document from China reveals that a large earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.0 and aftershocks occurred in the Gulf of Bohai on the same day as the Samsu earthquakes in Hamgyeongdo province. The shakes and disturbances observed eight times in Hamgyeong-do province might not be directly related to the large earthquake in the Gulf of Bohai. However, two series of earthquakes reported at two locations on the same day imply that there may be close relationships between the genesis of the two events. Based on phenomena observed recently, such as increased frequency of earthquakes, upheaval of ground level, releases of volcanic gases, and increased temperature of hot springs near the summit of Mt. Beakdu, the possibility of eruptions or explosions at the mountain in the near future has been suggested. Recently, scientists from the United States of America, Japan, Canada, and Germany were invited to investigate activity of the mountain. They agreed that the mountain is a dormant volcano and presents a temporal hazard.
著者
秋 教昇 都司 嘉宣 朴 昌業 姜 泰燮
出版者
東京大学
雑誌
東京大學地震研究所彙報 (ISSN:00408972)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.86, no.1, pp.11-27, 2012-03-26

Recently, it was reported that Mt. Beakdu experienced at least four or five large volcanic eruptions in geological and historical times, and that the lake Cheonji had been formed by the collapse of a part of the mountain's summit (Wei et al., 1998). The last of four eruptions occurred in historical times. Geologists attempted to estimate the period of the eruptions using radio carbon isotope dating, but the results showed a variety of periods ranging from approximately AD 8th to 14th centuries, which are the dates of the Balae and Goryo dynasties. Unfortunately, there are no distinct records of eruptions during this period. In the present study, we suggest that the last great volcanic eruption occurred in winter when there was a strong northwestern seasonal wind, based on the distribution of pumice on satellite images and the thickness of pumice layers measured at sites in relationship to the climatic environment. On the other hand, some researchers interpreted that five events described in the Joseon Dynasty relate to volcanic eruptions of Mt. Baekdu. Those events occurred in 1413, 1593, 1668, 1702, and 1903. Their interpretations are widely cited in journals and books; however, based on critical reviews of historical literature including Joseon-wangjo-sillog ("Chronology of the Joseon Dynasty"), we found that three of the events were not related to volcanic eruptions of Mt. Beakdu. Events in 1413 and 1668 were Asian yellow sand storm. The event in 1903 recorded in Chinese literature (Liu, 1909) was found to be a shower of rain and hail accompanied by thunder and lightning. Only the two events in 1597 and 1702 were confirmed to be related to volcanic activities of Mt. Beakdu. According to Joseon-wangjo-sillog, a large earthquake with the maximum intensity of 9.0 on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (MMI) and its aftershocks occurred at the boulder region of Samsu county, Hamgyeongdo Province, in 1597. The document reveals that they were detected in Hamgyeondo (MMI6) and in Chungcheong-do (MMI5) over three days. The mainshock was accompanied by a volcanic explosion at Wangtian, which is located 35km southwest from Mt. Baekdu. The site is one of the three eruption centers of the Mt.Beakdu volcanic body. A document from China reveals that a large earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.0 and aftershocks occurred in the Gulf of Bohai on the same day as the Samsu earthquakes in Hamgyeongdo province. The shakes and disturbances observed eight times in Hamgyeong-do province might not be directly related to the large earthquake in the Gulf of Bohai. However, two series of earthquakes reported at two locations on the same day imply that there may be close relationships between the genesis of the two events. Based on phenomena observed recently, such as increased frequency of earthquakes, upheaval of ground level, releases of volcanic gases, and increased temperature of hot springs near the summit of Mt. Beakdu, the possibility of eruptions or explosions at the mountain in the near future has been suggested. Recently, scientists from the United States of America, Japan, Canada, and Germany were invited to investigate activity of the mountain. They agreed that the mountain is a dormant volcano and presents a temporal hazard.
著者
都司 嘉宣
出版者
独立行政法人防災科学技術研究所
雑誌
防災科学技術 (ISSN:04541871)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.35, pp.15-20, 1979-09-25
著者
都司 嘉宣 中西 一郎 佐藤 孝之 草野 顕之 纐纈 一起 西山 昭仁 行谷 佑一
出版者
東京大学
雑誌
基盤研究(B)
巻号頁・発行日
2008

およそ100年ごとの間隔で発生していることが、歴史記録から判明している東海地震・.海地震、三陸沖の巨大地震、およびそれらに誘発されたと考えられる内陸直下の地震について、歴史記録の収集、現地調査、および理工学的考察を経て、発生機構にいたる研究を推進した。海溝型巨大地震として1707年宝永地震、1854年安政東海・.海地震、および古代に発生した869年貞観三陸地震などを検討した。内陸直下の地震としては1596年文禄豊後地震、1828年文政越後三条地震、1812年文化神奈川地震、1855年安政江戸地震などを研究した。
著者
都司 嘉宣
出版者
東京大学地震研究所
雑誌
東京大學地震研究所彙報 = Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo (ISSN:00408972)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.84, no.4, pp.291-298, 2009

At 2 PM, on 7th December 1828, a major earthquake occurred at Kanagawa post town, in Yokohama city. In the present study, using historical documents describing this event, we obtain a detailed map of the distribution of seismic intensity. It is clarified that the area of seismic intensity 6 to 7 (JMA scale) covers the main areas of Yokohama city. The area of intensity 5 covers whole part of Tokyo city zone, the eastern part of Kanagawa prefecture. The magnitude of this event was estimated at 6.4 using the area of intensity 5.
著者
阿部 邦昭 阿部 勝征 都司 嘉宣
出版者
東京大学
雑誌
東京大學地震研究所彙報 (ISSN:00408972)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.68, no.1, pp.23-70, 1993

1992年9月2日に中米ニカラグア国太平洋側沖合い海域に発生したニカラグア地震と津波の野外調査を行い,ニカラグアの太平洋海岸での震度と津波浸水高の分布図などを得た.沿岸の各集落での改正メルカリ震度階では震度2または3であって,まったく地震動による被害も生じず,揺れは気がつかない人も多数いるほど小さかった.これに対して,津波の浸水高は,南部海岸で100kmの長さにわたって,平均海水面上6~7mにも達したことが明らかとなり,今回の地震が1896年の明治三陸津波の地震と同様の,地震動が小さかった割に津波規模が異常に大きな「津波地震」であることが判明した.本震発生の直後の余震分布から判断すると,震源の広がりは,ニカラグアの太平洋側海岸線に平行に西北西.東南東に走る海溝軸にそった長さ約200km,幅約100kmの海域と判断される.津波の被害を生じたのもほぼこの震源域と相応した海岸区域であった.また地震波の解析からこの地震は,ココスプレートがニカラグア本土を載せたカリブプレートに沈み込む際の,両プレートの境界面でのずれのよって生じた低角の逆断層型の地震であることが判明しているが,ニカラグアの2ヵ所で得られた検潮記録,および引き波から始まったと各地で証言されている津波初動の傾向はこの地震メカニズムと調和的である.検潮記録,証言,および津波伝播の数値計算結果によると,津波は地震が発生して44~70分後に,まず小さな引き波が来て,その直後に大きな押し波が押し寄せるという形で海岸を襲った.沿岸各地では15分周期で2ないし3波継続したと証言されている.また津波の被害に関しては,浸水高が4mを越すと急激に人的被害が増加すること,津波による建築物の被害の割に死者数が少なかったこと,死者数のうち子どもの占める割合が大きいことが今回の津波被害の特徴であった.A survey study of the Nicaragua Earthquake and Tsunami on September 2, 1992 was carried out on the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. Interviews of the residents and measurements of tsunami trace height revealed only a small seismic intensity in a sharp contrast with a large tsunami. Tsunami height of 2-10 meters above mean sea level was obtained along the whole Nicaraguan coast, although the seismic intensity was only 2 or 3 in the modified Mercalli scale. The small seismic intensity suggests that the present event was a tsunami earthquake characterized by small excitation of short period seismic wave in comparison with large excitation of the tsunami.
著者
都司 嘉宣
出版者
東京大学地震研究所
雑誌
地震研究所彙報 (ISSN:00408972)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.84, no.4, pp.291-298, 2009

At 2 PM, on 7th December 1828, a major earthquake occurred at Kanagawa post town, in Yokohama city. In the present study, using historical documents describing this event, we obtain a detailed map of the distribution of seismic intensity. It is clarified that the area of seismic intensity 6 to 7 (JMA scale) covers the main areas of Yokohama city. The area of intensity 5 covers whole part of Tokyo city zone, the eastern part of Kanagawa prefecture. The magnitude of this event was estimated at 6.4 using the area of intensity 5.
著者
都司 嘉宣
出版者
公益社団法人 日本地震学会
雑誌
地震 第2輯 (ISSN:00371114)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.34, no.3, pp.401-411, 1981-10-25 (Released:2010-03-11)
参考文献数
18

In the early morning of Dec. 31, 1703 (Genroku 16), an enormous earthquake with magnitude of 8.2 occurred in the south sea region of the Kanto District. It is well known that after the occurrence of the earthquake a huge tsunmi was generated, and that the coasts of the Boso Peninsula, the north coasts of Sagami Bay, and the east coasts of the Izu Peninsula were seriously damaged.Recently several old documents of the Genroku tsunami were also discovered on the coasts of the Tokai district, the Kii peninsula, and the Shikoku Island. In two towns, Nishina and Toi, on the west coast of the Izu Peninsula, inundation height was estimated 3 meters, and the residential areas of these towns were slightly submerged. At Miho village in Shimizu city on the west coast of Suruga Bay, residential areas were intermittently submerged for more than ten days, and the people took refuge in higher places. On the mouth district of the Lake Hamana, seaside banks were eroded, and the mouth of the lake became broader. Thirty-three large junks out of 36 anchored at the open sea of Arai town near the lake, were wrecked. In Ono town on the Chita Peninsula inside the Bay of Ise, a garden of Naiku shrine was washed and eroded, where inundation height was about 2 meters. Tsunami was also noticed at the port of Nagoya. Miwasaki and Taiji towns and Haida village on the south east coast of the Kii peninsula were seriously damaged in spite of the long distance from the tsunami origin. In these places 46 houses were washed away in total and the observed tsunami climbed up to 3 or 5 meters. Tidal irregulaity was also noticed in several ports of Kochi Prefecture on the Shikoku Island.
著者
加藤 健二 都司 嘉宣
出版者
東京大学地震研究所
雑誌
東京大学地震研究所彙報 (ISSN:00408972)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.69, no.1/2, pp.39-66, 1994-09-30

本研究では,1993年7月12日に発生した北海道南西沖地震(MUMA7.8)の津波の挙動を調べた.まず最初に,津波の初期条件を求めるために断層要素の決定を行なった.断層要素の決定は,余震分布,奥尻島での鉛直,および水平の地殻変動量および江差と岩内の検潮記録に基づいて行なった.余震分布から,断層面を北側,南側の2つからなるとした.その結果,南側の断層では,低角な東下がりのものと,高角な西下がりのものがともに奥尻島の地殻変動の条件を満たすことがわかった.ここで求めた断層要素を使って,断層は南北とも西下がりであるとして,北海道周辺での津波の振舞いを調べた.津波は,奥尻海脚,奥尻海盆の影響を受けて複雑な振舞いをしたことがわかった.また,奥尻島の南西部について詳しく調べてみると,奥尻海脚によって曲げられた津波が第1波を形成し,同島南部の初松前地区に集中して,ここの集落の家屋を全滅させたことがわかった.また,奥尻海脚の東端と西端を節とするここにトラップされた固有振動が,島南端の青苗の居住地の主要部に大きな被害をもたらす第2波を形成することがわかった.