著者
Hirose Hideo
出版者
九州工業大学
雑誌
Technical Report in Computer Science and Systems Engineering (ISSN:13448803)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.1-26, 2006

The trunsored model, which is a new incomplete data model regarded as a unified model of the censored and truncated models in lifetime analysis, can not only estimate the ratio of the fragile population to the mixed fragile and durable populations or the cured and fatal mixed populations, but also test a hypothesis that the ratio is equal to a prescribed value with ease.Since SARS showed a severe case fatality ratio, our concern is to know such a case fatality ratio as soon as possible after a similar outbreak begins. The epidemiological determinants of spread of SARS can be dealt with as the probabilistic growth curve models, and the parameter estimation procedure for the probabilistic growth curve models may similarly be treated as the lifetime analysis. Thus, we try to do the parameter estimation to the SARS cases for the infected cases, fatal cases, and cured cases here, as we usually do it in the lifetime analysis. Using the truncated data models to the infected and fatal cases with some censoring time, we may estimate the total (or final) numbers of the patients and deaths, and the case fatality ratio may be estimated by these two numbers. We may also estimate the case fatality ratio using the numbers of the patients and recoveries, but this estimate differs from that using the numbers of the patients and deaths, especially when the censoring time is located at early stages.To circumvent this inconsistency, we propose a mixed trunsored model, an extension of the trunsored model, which can use the data of the patients, deaths, and recoveries simultaneously. The estimate of the case fatality ratio and its confidence interval are easily obtained in a numerical sense.This paper mainly treats the case in Hong Kong. The estimated epidemiological determinants of spread of SARS, fitted to the infected, fatal, and cured cases in Hong Kong, could be the logistic distribution function among the logistic, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull models. Using the proposed method, it would be appropriate that the SARS case fatality ratio is roughly estimated to be 17% in Hong Kong. Worldwide, it is roughly estimated to be about 12-18%, if we consider the safety side without the Chinese case.Unlike the questionably small confidence intervals for the case fatality ratio using the truncated models, the case fatality ratio in the proposed model provides a reasonable confidence interval.
著者
高橋 哲哉 Tetsuya Takahashi
雑誌
神学研究 (ISSN:05598478)
巻号頁・発行日
no.63, pp.1-14, 2016-03-20

1 0 0 0 OA a cup of の文法

著者
田中 実 Minoru Tanaka
雑誌
人文論究 (ISSN:02866773)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.61, no.3, pp.1-10, 2011-12-10
著者
水越 伸 村田 麻里子
出版者
東京大学社会情報研究所(現:東京大学大学院 情報学環・学際情報学府)
雑誌
東京大学社会情報研究所紀要 (ISSN:0918869X)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.65, pp.37-67, 2003-03-30

This paper will outline a media literacy program unique for being held in a museum. The program which the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of Citizens and Cultural Affairs entrusted to MELL Project(Media Expression,Learning and Literacy Project) is a pilot study carried out at the Tokyo Metropolitan Museum of Photography. The significance of this study is that while media literacy programs are mostly held in schools or computer classes, the study has proven museum to be vital environment in developing media literacy. Museums are media which connect visitors to objects, exhibits and subsequently knowledge; thus the visitor's experience in a museum entails reading and decoding such exhibits and objects. Museums also reflect numerous ideologies from both within and outside. To such extent,museums are in essence like any other media and should be exploited in the context of media literacy.In this study,two types of programs were developed. One is a workshop in which the participants learned the idea of 'structure'and'sequence'of information by interpreting and arranging sets of photos chosen from the museum collection. The other program was carried out during the 'period of integrated study' of Ebara Junior High School. The students learned the mechanism of 'visual image' by creating their own claymation and experiencing the visual image devices in the museum collection. Visual image is often associated with something only on television or the movies, but the program helped to dispel such assumptions.

1 0 0 0 OA 報復権再論

著者
大久保 哲
出版者
新潟大学法学会
雑誌
法政理論 = 法政理論 (ISSN:02861577)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.45, no.4, pp.109-129, 2013-03
著者
鶴原 清志 米川 直樹 日夏 理雄 ツルハラ キヨシ ヨネカワ ナオキ ヒナツ ミチオ TSURUHARA Kiyoshi YONEKAWA Naoki HINATSU Michio
出版者
三重大学教育学部
雑誌
三重大学教育学部研究紀要. 教育科学 (ISSN:0389925X)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.54, pp.23-31, 2003-03-31

An opinion survey was conducted among specialists in sports psychology to determine the relationship between mental training (MT) and sports counseling (SC). One hundred thirty members of the Japanese Society of Sports Psychology were sent questionnaires from the purpose of the survey, from whom 72 completed questionnaires were received - a collection rate of 55.4%. The questionnaires was open ended allowing free responses, such as the question, "What do you think about the relationship between mental training and sports counseling ? ". Responses were classified into five categories and the related content examined. As a result, common understanding among specialists was not obtained about the relationship between MT and SC though the ratio of answers of the category "MT and SC were different" was highest (35. 1%). Thus work may be needed to clarify the role of MT and SC in sports programs, determine their actual utilization, and devise program that enhance mental training of athletes through sports counseling or other means.