著者

泉 淳

出版者

一般財団法人 日本国際政治学会

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2014, no.178, pp.178_15-178_27, 2014-11-10 (Released:2015-11-30)

参考文献数

32

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The recent peoples’ movements seeking democracy throughout the Middle East, often referred to as “The Arab Spring”, are a direct form of public protest against the authoritarian regimes in the region. Although the contexts of the movements differ among the countries, their spillover nature strongly implies that the protests are essentially challenging to the regional order, in which authoritarianism has been so prevalent for decades. The U.S., since the inception of the Cold War, has been deeply involved in regional politics by establishing patron-client relationships with local authoritarians to safeguard its own security and strategic interests in the region. This policy has often been conducted at the expense of democratic ideals and caused an accumulation of frustration among local people to this day. This conflict between America’s security norm and its democratic norm lies deep in the U.S. Middle East policy and has been the subject of academic debates. This paper, along with the most of the preceding analyses, supports the argument that the U.S. has prioritized the security norm in its Middle East policy, but pays legitimate attention to how the U.S. has been shaped by the democratic norm. A general preference for democracy could not be easily abandoned in U.S. political discourse, as it tries to maintain legitimacy and integrity in its policy towards the region. Employing a simple matrix chart, this paper presents a macro view of the relationship between U.S. policy preferences and the past regime transformation in the region, with particular reference to the U.S.-backed authoritarian regimes. Provided here is an assumption and its fulfillment that the U.S. has been unwilling to take strong measures to democratize friendly authoritarian regimes, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, for fear that the regimes might lose their pro-U.S. orientation and the regional stability might be put at risk. At the same time, the U.S., mindful of sacrificing its democratic norm and the peoples’ aspiration for freedom, devised a policy of applying gradual reforms to friendly authoritarian regimes. This policy has two apparently opposing features with respect to the same friendly authoritarian clients: on one hand calling for reforms with new institutions (such as MEPI) and increased funding, and on the other, providing substantial military and economic aid or selling arms in huge quantities. This policy mix is effective in maintaining the security interests provided by the friendly authoritarians and, at the same time, satisfying the democratic ideal of the U.S. and the local people to a certain extent, thus giving the U.S. Middle East policy more legitimacy and integrity. This trend of U.S. policy is also noticeable in Obama administration, which is trying to avoid rapid revolution, especially in the pro-U.S. Gulf states. As a result, the democratic movements in the Middle East could not expect much support from the U.S. for transforming the current regional order in the foreseeable future.

著者

末近 浩太

出版者

一般財団法人 日本国際政治学会

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2014, no.178, pp.178_1-178_14, 2014-11-10 (Released:2015-11-30)

参考文献数

32

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This special issue, comprising nine research articles and one review article, focuses on ‘Political Changes in the Middle East’. The Middle East today is in a storm of political destabilization, which was triggered by the Arab Spring in late 2010. Regardless of its consequences, such as peaceful democratisation and bloody civil war, the Arab Spring has caused structural changes for both states and society in their domestic politics, which is seemingly leading to a blurring of the lines between regional and international politics. For example, the collapse of the Mubarak regime in Egypt brought about a realignment in inter-state relations between Egypt and other Arab states, as well as with the US. Thus, Middle Eastern politics and international politics are interconnected, as L. Carl Brown rightly argued thirty years ago. Nevertheless, social science seems to have failed for decades to effectively analyse the interconnections between the political dynamics of the Middle East and international politics. This is mainly because of ‘Middle Eastern exceptionalism’, which is deeply rooted in various research fields of social science. It claims that the region is culturally, socially, and historically so unique that it is hard to be studied or understood through general theories of social science, particularly comparative politics and IR; it is, thus, in turn,difficult to contribute to furthering the theoretical development of disciplinary social science, as well as Middle Eastern area studies. Some experts point out that this exceptionalism is due to an intellectual divide between two scholarly approaches—area studies and disciplinary social science. In addition, both approaches, though in a different manner, have a tendency to regard the region as if it is an exclusive ‘miniature garden’ that is insulated from the remainder of the world. As a result, two different approaches have developed separately, one focused within the region, the other, outside the region. In search for a new analytical perspective to bridge such a methodological gap, this special issue attempts to set up two working premises. First, while the Middle East possesses common properties and unifying themes, which ontologically generate its ‘regionness’, and thus can be considered independent and autonomous, it does not exist in a static and uniform way, but has a variable, fluid, and multi-layered presence. Second, the concept of ‘political change’ can be an analytical key to connect various levels of dynamics between domestic, regional, and international politics, as well as to overcome the intellectual divide between area studies and disciplinary social science. In this issue, ‘political change’ is loosely defined as the fluctuation or collapse of long-lasting power equilibrium, such as through democratisation, revolution, civil war, inter-state war, and economic crises. The nine contributions, briefly summarised at the end of this introduction, are all different from one another in terms of their research field, methodology, and case studies. Yet it is clear that all the papers in this issue share a common thesis concerning the above-mentioned problems of ‘Middle Eastern exceptionalism’ and the intellectual drive to tackle it. They also seek to take steps towards developing studies on Middle Eastern politics and international politics by focusing on ‘political changes’ in each case.

著者

Tin・Tin Win・Shwe

出版者

国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所

雑誌

基盤研究(C)

巻号頁・発行日

2019-04-01

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自閉症スペクトラム障害(ASD)は、神経発達障害であり、社会的相互作用や、言語/コミュニケーションに障害が見られ、興味の範囲の狭さおよび反復性の行動を特徴としている。遺伝的要因と環境要因の両方がASDに寄与しているとされるが、自閉症の正確な病因と病態生理は不明である。我々は、出生前と幼少期の大気汚染物質曝露がASDの潜在的な要因であると仮定し、神経炎症は大気汚染物質とASDのような異常を結びつけるメカニズムとして役立つ可能性を考えた。本研究では、ラットモデルを用いて環境汚染物質への発達期曝露における神経免疫応答に重要な役割を果たすマスト細胞、ミクログリアとASD様の行動についても検討する。

著者

水間 広

出版者

国立研究開発法人理化学研究所

雑誌

基盤研究(C)

巻号頁・発行日

2020-04-01

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自閉症スペクトラム障害(ASD)の病因に、周産期の神経免疫機構異常の関与が示唆されているが、生後の社会性行動異常との関連は未だ不明な点が多い。我々は母体疑似ウイルス感染により再現された病態モデルマウスを無麻酔下による脳機能イメージング法(PETやfMRI)を用いて同一個体で長期間追跡した結果、正常発達マウスと比較して神経機能ネットワークや糖代謝活性異常を見出し、また、ASD患者研究と同様の結果が得られた。本研究では、モデルマウスの生後神経機能ネットワーク異常と脳内ミクログリア活性による神経シナプス形成異常との関連性を調べ、ASDの病態メカニズムの一端を明らかにする。

著者

吉永元信

出版者

国立国会図書館

雑誌

レファレンス (ISSN:1349208X)

巻号頁・発行日

no.840, 2021-01

著者

中京テレビ制作・著作

出版者

丸善 (発売)

巻号頁・発行日

0000

著者

新井 由季 玉田 喜一 佐藤 幸浩 和田 伸一 田野 茂夫 花塚 和伸 大橋 明 菅野 健太郎

出版者

一般財団法人 日本消化器病学会

雑誌

日本消化器病学会雑誌 (ISSN:04466586)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.102, no.11, pp.1412-1416, 2005 (Released:2005-11-04)

参考文献数

17

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胆嚢収縮能超音波検査において一般に用いられている卵黄に代わりカロリーメイト缶®を用い,その有用性について検討した.健常人ボランテイア27名を対象とし,腹部超音波検査にて空腹時胆嚢容積をellipsoid法にて求めた.カロリーメイト缶®飲用後,30分後と60分後に胆嚢容積を測定し,胆嚢収縮率(EF)を求めた.空腹時胆嚢容積は平均13.5 ml, EFは平均で30分後53%,60分後62%と充分な胆嚢収縮が見られ,カロリーメイト缶®は胆嚢収縮剤として有用と考えられた.また,空腹時胆嚢容積が4 mlに満たない例では前日の脂肪食の影響を除くために,禁食を厳重にして再検する必要があると考えられた.

著者

菅 千索 岩本 陽介

出版者

和歌山大学教育学部附属教育実践総合センター

雑誌

和歌山大学教育学部教育実践総合センター紀要 (ISSN:13468421)

巻号頁・発行日

no.13, pp.27-36, 2003

被引用文献数

5

著者

後藤 康利

出版者

中央大学大学院研究年報編集委員会、中央大学理工学部事務室

雑誌

大学院研究年報 理工学研究科編 (ISSN:13452428)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.44, 2014-07-01

著者

溝口 和臣

出版者

独立行政法人国立長寿医療研究センター

雑誌

基盤研究(C)

巻号頁・発行日

2009

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本研究は以下の仮説、「老化により前頭前野そのものの機能低下として抑うつや認知機能障害が発生するのと同時に、情動の発現に関与する扁桃体や側坐核に対する前頭前野による抑制が低下することによりストレス脆弱性が発生する」を、実験動物を用いた基礎研究から検証することを目的とした。研究実施期間は3年間とし、初年度である本年度は、当初の計画を若干変更しつつ、一部の実験を前倒しで実施した。以下に結果の概要を記す。ドーパミンD1受容体アゴニストの前頭前野内投与実験より、老齢ラット(24ヶ月齢)において観察されたワーキングメモリ障害は、前頭前野におけるドーパミン放出量の減少によるD1受容体刺激の低下に基づくことが明らかとなった(Mizoguchi et al., Neuroscience, 2009)。しかし、セロトニン系抗うつ薬の老齢ラットに対する抗うつ効果は限定的であった。グルココルチコイド受容体(GR)を介した作用の低下が、ドーパミン放出量を低下させることが示唆された。この結果を受けて、老化による前頭前野におけるドーパミン放出量の減少にGRの機能低下の関与を推定すべく、まずはGRのcoactivatorの発現を解析した結果、GRIP-1, SRC-1, CBPの前頭前野における発現は老化により減少することが確認された。ストレス反応性を検討した結果、老齢ラットではストレスによる不安の亢進が顕著で、且つ、血中corticosterone濃度もより高値を示し、老化によりストレス脆弱性が発現することが明らかとなった(Shoji and Mizoguchi, Behay.Brain Res, 2010)。この脳内機構として、老化による前頭前野の機能低下と、その低下に基づく扁桃体の機能亢進が重要な役割を果たしていることが示唆された。

著者

鈴木 絢女

出版者

JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2008, no.151, pp.176-179, 2008-03-15 (Released:2010-09-01)

著者

増原 綾子

出版者

JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2005, no.142, pp.172-176, 2005-08-29 (Released:2010-09-01)

著者

相沢 伸広

出版者

JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2006, no.146, pp.156-171,L15, 2006-11-17 (Released:2010-09-01)

参考文献数

34

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The shift from Cultural Revolution to Reform and Open Door policy in China had a great impact on the general perception of overseas Chinese within Southeast Asia. It changed the image and value of the Overseas Chinese from “threat” to “entrepreneur.”This paper focuses on Indonesia-China relations. Indonesia has the largest number of Overseas Chinese population and implemented the harshest policies on the “Chinese Problem” among other Southeast Asian countries in this period. The fear of, and scramble for, overseas Chinese between the two countries were important features of both Chinese and Indonesian politics during the period before normalization of Indonesian diplomatic ties with China. The politics of China's Overseas Chinese policy and the Indonesian government's reaction is another crucial aspect of international relation between China and Southeast Asia.This paper argues that the crucial shift in perception happened twice both in China and Indonesia. The first shift dated from the Cultural Revolution in China in 1966, which coincided with the regime shift from Sukarno to Suharto in Indonesia. Activist Chinese youth in Indonesia agitating against Suharto, the “imperialist minion”, fueled the view that overseas Chinese were acting as the fifth column of China and were consequently a “threat”. Such a view resulted in severe restriction of their political and cultural rights in Indonesia as well as the abandoning of the diplomatic relationship.The second shift occurred when both countries began orienting their main agenda toward economic development. Deng Xiaoping's Reform and Open Door policy redefined the Overseas Chinese by transforming the erstwhile “enemies” of class revolution into “patriotic heroes”. The Overseas Chinese Affairs Office was established not only at the central level but also at the provincial and municipal levels, and worked together with hometown networks to attract Overseas Chinese investment to finance infrastructure building in those “hometown” regions (prominently in Fujian and Guangdong). In Indonesia, there were two reactions to this shift in China's policy. One was embodied by Indonesian Chinese capitalist Tong Djoe, who acted as negotiator in opening direct trade between the two countries. (No longer were military personnel appointed to oversee this issue.) The other, a consequence of the drastic fall in oil prices in 1982, underscored the importance of utilizing the Chinese capitalists in non-oil industries for the benefit of Indonesian economy.Economic development of Chinese “entrepreneur” thus provided opportunities for financing both the Indonesian economy as well as China's economy. This mutual benefit paved the way for the normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries in August 1990.

著者

森井 裕一

出版者

JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2005, no.140, pp.1-18,L5, 2005-03-19 (Released:2010-09-01)

参考文献数

41

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Germany's foreign policy has been characterized by continuity since its fundamental course was defined by the Federal Republic's first chancellor, Konrad Adenauer. Even unification in 1990 did not have much impact on the continuity of both foreign policy and European integration policy. The transatlantic alliance (NATO) and the European integration (EU) have remained the basic pillars of the Federal Republic's foreign policy. It was imperative that Germany embed itself in both NATO and the EU.With the end of the cold war the security environment in Europe drastically changed: the meaning of security changed from territorial defense to crisis management. Accordingly the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) of the EU developed rapidly in the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). The German federal government led by Chancellor Schröder and foreign minister Fischer continued its commitment to the transatlantic alliance and to the further development of European integration. Since the federal election of 2002, however, the Iraq war has overshadowed the German-U. S. relationship.This article analyzes the issue of continuity and change in German foreign policy within this new security environment. The first part of the article outlines the course of German foreign policy since the end of the Cold War, focusing especially on the problem of using the defense force, the Bundeswehr. In the second part, using the case of the 2002 federal election, the entanglement of domestic politics and foreign policy is discussed. In the third part, the new characteristics of current foreign policy are discussed. The debates over the “German Way” and “Civilian Power” in foreign policy are examined in order to explain both continuity and change in the transatlantic relations. German policy toward the institutional development of the EU and European security policy is also discussed.The red-green government led by Schröder/Fischer introduced a new style to German foreign policy with its more direct and self-confident approach. Ongoing economic globalization and the developing EU are both generating change within German foreign policy. Nonetheless, the multilateralism of German foreign policy will not change. For Germany, the use of the UN, OSCE and EU remains the fundamental basis for its policy, even though Germany is increasingly asserting its own interests and preferred methods in those organizations. Germany's desire to promote world stability through civilian methods, for example, are well-suited to an approach that works through multilateral institutions. At the same time, even though the European security environment has changed, the U. S. A. remains the most important security partner for Germany. The transatlantic relationship remains inevitable for Germany's security and economy. Germany has to balance its key transatlantic relationship with the demands of European integration.

著者

戸澤 英典

出版者

JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2007, no.149, pp.172-175, 2007-11-28 (Released:2010-09-01)

著者

沢田 善太郎

出版者

学術雑誌目次速報データベース由来

雑誌

ソシオロジ (ISSN:05841380)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.43, no.3, pp.3-18,146, 1999

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Until Weber's study appeared, the most systematic thought on the bureaucracy was found in J. S. Mill's On liberty and Considerations on Representative Government. Though Mill's works were translated into Japanese in early Meiji era, his concept of bureaucracy was frequently misunderstood by the Japanese translators in those days. That is, where Mill discussed the troubles of the administrative bureaucracy as a whole body, the Japanese translators used to interpret them as being brought about by one or few influential who controlled the bureaucratic system arbitrarily.<br> Such a misunderstanding of the concept was also found in the petition submitted by Taisuke Itagaki, Taneomi Soejima, Shojiro Gotfi, Shinpei Eto and others to the government in 1874, proposing the establishmement of an elected house. Their zeal for the representative government and their criticism of the "Yushi Sensei" (the despotism of the administrative officers) were inspired by Considerations on Representative Government. However, the implications of the "Yushi Sensei" were rather different from Mill's discussions on the bureaucracy.<br> Probably, these misundestandings were brought about by the premature state of the administrative bureaucracy in early Meiji era and by the past tradition which was attached to the education of Chinese Confucian classics.

著者

今泉 裕美子

出版者

法政大学

雑誌

奨励研究(A)

巻号頁・発行日

2000

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<資料収集>本研究の対象時期を含めた日本の南洋群島統治資料の所在をほぼ確認し、複写することができた。従来、南洋群島資料は殆どないとされてきたが、戦後アメリカのミクロネシア信託統治行政の資料収集について情報を得、アメリカが押収した資料、また日本への返還文書、それぞれの所在を確認できた。よって、貴会の特別研究員時代の調査研究とあわせて、アジア及び太平洋島嶼地域、アメリカにおける南洋群島資料の所在について、その全体像をほぼ明らかにすることができたことは、南洋群島研究の進展に大きく貢献するものと考える。とくにハワイ大学調査では米国押収資料のほとんどを複写できたこと、また、ハワイ以外の未発掘資料の所在も確認でき、今後の研究計画もたてることができた。以上のような経緯から本研究の資料調査では、結果的には海外における資料調査に重点が置かれることになった。一方、聴き取りでは、引揚者によるミクロネシアへの慰霊団に同行したほか、ミクロネシア、沖縄、東京近郊で調査を進め、日本統治下の人々の世代別、性別、仕事別の諸分野について聴き取りを行なうことができた。<研究発表>海外での資料を多く確認できたため複写手続に時間がとられた。とくに平成13年9月のテロ事件以後、通信や交渉が滞り、資料の入手段階で通常以上の時間が必要となり、論文作成の遅延をもたらさざるを得なかった。すなわち、研究計画に示したように、日本の国際連盟脱退からアジア・太平洋戦争までの時期について、資料分析が行なえたのは第二次世界大戦開始前後までとなった。しかし、アジア・太平洋戦争期の政策や、実態についての分析は現在進行中であり、本奨励研究の研究成果には間に合わなかったにせよ、今後の研究発表がすでに具体的な日程に上っている。また、論文化できた研究成果には、現地住民政策を委任統治の「島民ノ福祉」向上という委任統治条項履行という観点から分析したもの、および、南洋移民研究のサーヴェイがある。前者では、南洋群島統治における1930年代の現地住民政策の特徴を、日本化政策の浸透が福祉向上という解釈で行なわれたことを明らかにした。後者では、南洋群島移民に関する国内外の研究動向について、本奨励研究対象期の日本の南洋群島統治政策と移民政策および移民の実態から検討し、自らの研究の位置づけを行った。平成14年3月1日には「沖縄県地域史協議会」にて「日本の南洋群島政策と移民」と題する講演会を行い、南洋群島統治と移民との相互関連性について本奨励研究の成果を口頭報告した。以上の作業によって従来報告者が進めてきた研究、すなわち海軍統治期、南洋庁統治期の1920年代に加えて、1930年代の統治研究を行いえたので、今後は、日本の南洋群島統治全期のモノグラフ作成をめざしたい。

著者

高安 健将

出版者

JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2005, no.141, pp.86-100,L12, 2005-05-29 (Released:2010-09-01)

参考文献数

38

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This article examines the responses of the British government to the fourth Middle East conflict and the first oil crisis, both of which occurred coincidentally in October 1973. The British government led by Edward Heath recognised that Britain had ceased to be a Super Power and that it was experiencing a domestic crisis. It was therefore fully aware that it could not achieve settlements for the Middle East conflict and the oil crisis on its own. However, the differing interests and perceptions towards the crises made it extremely difficult for the British government to cooperate with the United States in particular and to a lesser extent with the European Community.The disagreements between Britain and the United States reflected their respective grasps of the Middle East conflict and their interests in securing oil supply from the Arab oil-producers. The Heath government was more sympathetic to the Arabs, who in fact launched the offensive against the Israelis in 1973. Its consistent understanding was that the Israelis had occupied Arab territories in 1967 and that the acquisition of territory by war was inadmissible. For the Heath government, the Arabs had not crossed an international border to commit aggression, but rather that the fighting was going on in territories that legally, and in the view of the United Nations, belonged to the Arabs. In contrast, the US government initially regarded as the baseline of a ceasefire the dividing line between the Arabs and the Israelis that had been created after the Israeli occupation in 1967. Domestically, the Heath government was facing a huge energy crisis, which was triggered by a ban by coal-miners on overtime work. It was vital for the British government to secure oil imports from the Arab oil-producers, a need not faced by the United States.The Heath government and the Nixon administration disagreed not only over the causes of the conflict, and over how to achieve first a ceasefire and then long-term settlement between the Arabs and the Israelis, but also over the perceptions of the actors involved-including Egypt and the Soviet Union -and particularly with regards oil security. While Heath in fact distrusted the intentions of the Nixon administration, which was confronting the Watergate affair, the US government suspected that the British government, by siding with the Arabs, was deliberately undermining its Middle East policy.This article argues that the British government sided with the Arabs in 1973 in order to secure oil supplies, despite generating acute tension with the United States and the European Community. Such discord, this paper argues, eventually deprived the British government of any significant role in settling the Middle East conflict and the oil crisis.

著者

山本 達也

出版者

JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2005, no.141, pp.115-131,L14, 2005-05-29 (Released:2010-09-01)

参考文献数

41

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The purpose of this paper is to examine how the external environments of Middle Eastern governments, which require a serious commitment to the promotion of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), affect policies to control Internet information flow, and how it leads to a change in their domestic politics.Currently, we cannot confirm any leading hypotheses about the impacts of the Internet on authoritarian regimes that are widely accepted by political scientists. The main reasons for this is lack of statistical data, difficulties in obtaining sufficient material to discuss this theme, and the low Internet penetration rates in such countries.Of course, these hypotheses must surely exist in the Middle East and undoubtedly the relationship between Internet development and the political impacts on authoritarian regimes is an attractive research topic. However, the reasons mentioned above have caused certain limitations in carrying out such research. Therefore, this paper focuses on the regimes' Internet controlling policies, which is designed to block the free flow of information, and tries to expose the implications of political influences on authoritarian regimes by Internet development.When we focus on Internet controlling policies in authoritarian regimes, we should carefully assess the degree of governmental interference to the flow of information on the Internet. As figure 1 in my paper indicates, conceptually there are two different types of models regarding Internet controlling in authoritarian regimes. One model is that the government mediates and tries to control the flow of information on the Internet (model C), and the other model is that the government renounces Internet control completely (model D).There are two effective concepts to classify authoritarian regimes into model C or model D. The first concept is “network architecture, ” which is defined as the structural character of a network based on a code (software). The second concept is “network infrastructure architecture, ” which is defined as the physical structure of infrastructure to ensure data communication.As a result of my examination, most of the Middle Eastern countries such as Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt are categorized as model C, with only Jordan categorized as model D. The difference between Jordan and the other countries is explained by the engagement of US governmental organization on ICT strategy-making and revising processes, and the leadership of King Abdullah II, the head of the regime, who favors the introduction of policies that create competition in the ICT sector.The Jordanian decision to adopt model D leads a change in policymaking processes in the ICT field in Jordan, with transparency and accountability indubitably improved in this country. My paper concludes that the Jordanian case implies authoritarian regimes could adopt model D while keeping their authoritarian characters, and the perception and leadership of these regimes' heads would grasp the key for this change.

著者

浜中 新吾

出版者

JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2007, no.148, pp.43-58,L8, 2007-03-08 (Released:2010-09-01)

参考文献数

37

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A lot of dictatorship have collapsed and made a transition to democratic regimes late the Cold War. However, Middle Eastern states were never experienced with democratization wave. So that, there are scarcely any comparative democratization studies dealt with them. Today, we can understand some peculiar topics or indigenous logic of the Arab politics, because of being recently made advances in area studies of the Middle East. But we tend to think that comparative political research methods are not effective in understanding politics in the Middle East and do not help us to become familiar with it.Lipset's thesis is revaluated and the most popular one that goes with relationship between economic development and democracy after Huntington's democratic third wave. Adam Przeworski and his collaborators tried to renew a modernization theory, then their works help restore confidence of general and comparative theory. However, there is still a paradox that even rich countries do not catch on the path of democratic transition in the Middle East.The rentier state theory is used to explain this paradox why were not Middle Eastern countries democratized. This theory pays attention how much rent, natural resources like oil, natural gas, minerals with which states are able to ensure financial well being, gets support from many political economists. The rent also contains worker's remittance as well as official development assistance from foreign countries. So, a regime without resources may be categorized as a rentier state. A government with affluent rent does not have an incentive to liberalize own politics and societies because it needs not to impose a tax on its people, so the regime is easy to repress dissidents.In this study, I formalize a model of the rentier state theory from Boix-Stokes Modernization model, and then attempt quantitative analyses. My formalized rentier model has a scope of rent seeking activity of governments with fertile natural resources. So the purpose of this research is to shed light on a general effectiveness of the theory as well as to deal with democratic transitions as time passed or not, the Large N Studies is adopt as my research design. The method of quantitative analysis is the Dynamic Probit Model, which Adam Przeworski developed.The result of my study shows that enormous fuel rent tends to suppress democratic transition and promote stability of a dictatorship. But other natural resources and remittance rent have little to do with political transformation. The official development assistance dose not play a role of rent, seems to have a same effect of economic growth for democratization.